Is Newmont Stock a Screaming Buy After a 155% Rally in a Year?
Newmont Corporation's NEM shares have surged 154.5% over the past year, significantly outperforming both the Zacks Mining β Gold industry's 131.2% rally and the S&P 500's 26.1% rise, driven by record gold prices and strong operational efficiency. While the stock has slipped below its 50-day...
Bullish Signals
- NEM shares surged 154.5% last year, outperforming gold and S&P 500 rallies.
- Ahafo North began commercial production in October 2025 after first gold pour.
- Ahafo North expected to produce 315,000 gold ounces this year over 13-year life.
- Non-core divestiture completed April 2025, generating $470 million cash proceeds.
- Record $7.3 billion free cash flow generated in fourth quarter 2025.
- Net operating cash surged 62% to $10.3 billion in 2025.
- Newmont distributed $3.4 billion to shareholders and reduced debt equally.
- Quarterly dividend increased to 26 cents with sustainable 14% payout ratio.
- $3.6 billion used from $6 billion buyback authorization as of February 2026.
- Analysts raise 2026 earnings estimates to $8.79, implying 27.6% growth.
- Earnings expected to grow 17.6% in 2027 as production capacity expands.
Bearish Signals
- Stock slipped below 50-day moving average due to gold pullback and inflation fears.
- Gold prices fell from $5,600 to below $4,900 amid profit-taking and dollar rebound.
- Oil above $5,100 fuels inflation worries and cuts Fed rate cut expectations.
- Newmont dividend yield of 0.9% lags typical defensive holdings for income investors.
- 2026 earnings estimates of $8.79 face downward revision if gold stabilizes or declines.