Newmont Corporation

(New York Stock Exchange)
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Bullish +65

NEM vs. KGC: Which Gold Mining Stock Is a Better Pick Now? - Zacks Investment Research

AI-generated analysis

📈 Gold prices fluctuated significantly in early 2026, moving from record highs near $5,600 to below $4,500 due to macroeconomic factors like a stronger U.S. dollar and Fed policy.

⛏️ Newmont achieved commercial production at the Ahafo North project in October 2025, targeting 315,000 ounces of output this year with a ramp-up to full capacity over a 13-year life.

💰 Newmont generated $3.6 billion from non-core divestitures in 2025 and reported record free cash flow of $7.3 billion, ending the year with $2.1 billion in net cash.

🏗️ Kinross is advancing three U.S. growth projects (Round Mountain Phase X, Bald Mountain Redbird 2, Kettle River–Curlew) expected to contribute 3 million ounces and a combined IRR of 59%.

💵 Kinross maintains strong liquidity of $3.5 billion and has repaid $700 million in debt, positioning itself to fund growth while strengthening its balance sheet.

📉 Newmont anticipates a production decline to 5.26 million ounces in 2026 and expects AISC to rise to $1,680 per ounce due to lower volumes and higher taxes.

📉 Kinross faces cost inflation with full-year 2025 AISC of $1,571 per ounce and expects 2026 costs to reach $1,730 per ounce due to inflationary impacts.

📊 Newmont trades at a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 10.73X, representing a roughly 4.6% premium over the industry average.

📉 Kinross trades at a discount with a forward 12-month earnings multiple of 10.06X, below its industry average.

🚀 Analysts project Kinross to achieve year-over-year EPS growth of 50% in 2026 based on consensus estimates trending northward over the past 60 days.

💹 Newmont offers a dividend yield of 1.1% with a payout ratio of 14%, while Kinross offers a yield of 0.6% with a payout ratio of 8%.

🏆 The article concludes that Kinross is the more favorable option currently due to its attractive valuation and higher growth projections despite both facing cost headwinds.

Bullish Signals
  • Newmont achieved commercial production at Ahafo North, adding significant capacity with an expected output of 315,000 ounces in 2025.
  • Newmont generated $3.6 billion from portfolio optimization and divestitures, reinforcing its balance sheet and reducing debt by roughly $3.4 billion.
  • Newmont reported record free cash flow of $7.3 billion in 2025, nearly doubling year over year.
  • Kinross has a strong pipeline of three U.S. projects with a combined IRR of 59% and incremental NPV of $4.3 billion.
  • Kinross's key assets Tasiast and Paracatu are delivering strong performance, with Paracatu production rising 25% year over year in Q4 2025.
  • Kinross has a robust liquidity position of $3.5 billion and no debt maturities until 2033, providing flexibility for growth.
  • Kinross trades at a discount to Newmont with a forward earnings multiple of 10.06X versus the industry average.
  • Analysts project Kinross sales and EPS to grow by 25.4% and 50% respectively in 2026, indicating strong upside potential.
  • Both companies are demonstrating strong financial health and commitment to shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks.
Risk Factors
  • Newmont anticipates a decline in gold production to 5.26 million ounces in 2026 from 5.89 million ounces in 2025.
  • Newmont expects its all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) to increase to $1,680 per ounce in 2026 due to lower sales volumes and higher royalties.
  • Kinross faces rising production costs with fourth-quarter AISC increasing 21% to $1,825 per ounce.
  • Kinross expects full-year 2026 AISC to be $1,730 per ounce, partly driven by inflationary impacts.
Full Analysis
Gold prices have experienced significant volatility in early 2026, surging past $5,400 per ounce due to geopolitical tensions before retreating below $4,500 amid a stronger U.S. dollar and hawkish Federal Reserve stance. This market context sets the stage for a comparison between two major mining giants: Newmont (NEM) and Kinross Gold (KGC). Both companies are navigating a landscape of high gold prices but facing headwinds from rising operational costs. Newmont recently achieved commercial production at its Ahafo North project, adding 315,000 ounces to its output in 2025 with a ramp-up to full capacity expected. The company has successfully divested non-core assets like the Akyem and Porcupine operations, generating $3.6 billion in proceeds to strengthen its balance sheet. Newmont reported record free cash flow of $7.3 billion in 2025 and maintains robust liquidity of $11.6 billion, allowing for significant debt reduction and shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks. Kinross Gold is focusing on organic growth through three U.S.-based projects—Round Mountain Phase X, Bald Mountain Redbird 2, and Kettle River–Curlew—which are expected to add 3 million ounces of life-of-mine production with a combined IRR of 59%. The company's key assets, Tasiast and Paracatu, continue to drive cash flow, supported by strong liquidity of $3.5 billion. Kinross has repaid $700 million in debt and is targeting to return 40% of its free cash flow to shareholders in 2026. While both companies face challenges from rising all-in-sustaining costs (AISC), Kinross currently trades at a discount to Newmont with a forward earnings multiple of 10.06X compared to NEM's 10.73X. Analysts project Kinross to see substantial year-over-year growth in sales and EPS for 2026, driven by favorable estimate revisions and its attractive valuation. Consequently, the article concludes that Kinross appears to offer a more favorable investment option at this time due to its higher growth projections and lower valuation relative to Newmont.