Newmont Corporation

(New York Stock Exchange)
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Somewhat Bullish +35

Newmont Stock Loses 9% in a Month: Should You Buy the Dip? - Zacks Investment Research

AI-generated analysis

πŸ“‰ NEM stock has lost 9% in a month, trading below its 200-day moving average but maintaining a bullish trend structure above the 50-day SMA.

🏭 Ahafo North mine achieved commercial production in October 2025 with an expected annual output of 315,000 ounces ramping to 275k-325k ounces over a 13-year life.

πŸ’° The company generated $3.6 billion from portfolio optimization in 2025 and distributed $3.4 billion to shareholders via dividends and buybacks.

πŸ“‰ Newmont anticipates a year-over-year production decline to 5.26 million ounces for 2026 due to site transitions at Penasquito, Cadia, Nevada Gold Mines, and Pueblo Viejo.

πŸ’Έ All-in-sustaining costs (AISC) are projected to rise to $1,680 per ounce in 2026 from $1,358 per ounce in 2025 due to lower volumes and higher taxes.

πŸ“ˆ Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings is pegged at $9.91, suggesting year-over-year growth of 43.8% despite production cuts.

πŸ›‘οΈ Newmont reduced debt by roughly $3.4 billion in 2025 and maintains a strong net cash position of $3.2 billion.

πŸ“‰ Gold prices have recovered to above $4,300 per ounce following a U.S.-Iran peace deal, mitigating inflation concerns that previously drove bullion lower.

🏷️ The company retains a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating as analysts balance strong earnings growth expectations against rising unit costs and production declines.

Bullish Signals
  • Newmont generated $3.6 billion from portfolio optimization actions in 2025 to support its capital allocation strategy.
  • The company distributed $3.4 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases in 2025, with a new $6 billion buyback program approved.
  • Newmont reduced debt by roughly $3.4 billion in 2025, resulting in a strong net cash position of $3.2 billion.
  • Gold prices have recovered to above $4,300 per ounce following geopolitical easing, which should boost profitability and cash flow generation.
  • Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2026 earnings is pegged at $9.91, suggesting year-over-year growth of 43.8%.
  • Earnings are expected to grow roughly 57.3% in the second quarter of 2026.
  • The newly commissioned Ahafo North mine is expected to produce between 275,000 and 325,000 ounces annually over a 13-year life.
Risk Factors
  • Newmont anticipates gold production at about 5.26 million ounces for 2026, indicating a year-over-year decline from 5.89 million ounces in 2025.
  • Lower production is expected to lead to higher unit costs in 2026, with all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) projected to rise to $1,680 per ounce from $1,358 per ounce.
  • The increase in unit costs is driven by lower sales volumes from planned mine sequencing, higher royalties and production taxes, and deferral of sustaining capital.
  • Production declines at Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo will partly offset contributions from the new Ahafo North mine.
  • Newmont's stock has underperformed the Zacks Mining – Gold industry’s 7.8% fall and the S&P 500’s 0.7% decline over the past month.
  • The company slipped below its 200-day simple moving average on June 5, 2026, indicating a short-term technical weakness.
Full Analysis
Newmont Corporation (NEM) shares have declined approximately 9% over the past month, underperforming both the broader S&P 500 and its gold mining peers. Technical analysis indicates the stock recently slipped below its 200-day simple moving average on June 5, 2026, though it remains above the 50-day moving average following a bullish golden crossover in April 2025. The company is executing a strategic shift toward Tier 1 assets, having generated $3.6 billion from portfolio optimization in 2025 to reinforce its balance sheet. This capital was used for significant shareholder returns, including $3.4 billion in dividends and buybacks during 2025, alongside a new $6 billion share repurchase program approved by the board. The company also reduced debt by roughly $3.4 billion in 2025, maintaining a strong net cash position of $3.2 billion. Looking ahead to 2026, Newmont anticipates gold production of approximately 5.26 million ounces, representing a year-over-year decline from 5.89 million ounces due to site transitions at Penasquito and Cadia, as well as lower output at Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo. Despite this volume decrease, the company expects earnings per share to grow roughly 43.8% to a consensus estimate of $9.91, driven by rising bullion prices which have recovered above $4,300 per ounce following geopolitical easing. However, the production decline is expected to drive up all-in-sustaining costs (AISC) to $1,680 per ounce in 2026, a notable increase from $1,358 per ounce in 2025. This cost inflation stems from mine sequencing, higher royalties and taxes, and deferred sustaining capital. Consequently, while earnings estimates remain robust due to favorable gold prices, the combination of lower production volumes and elevated unit costs could pressure overall profitability goals.