Vistra Corp.

(New York Stock Exchange)

Top News rankings and signal summaries are processed using AI and may contain errors.

1
Bullish +75

Vistra Energy Earnings Call Signals Cash-Rich Growth

AI-generated analysis

Vistra Energy (NYSE: VST) delivered a robust earnings update highlighting record profitability, strong fleet reliability, and a substantial growth pipeline capable of funding significant shareholder returns. The company reported record calendar first-quarter adjusted EBITDA of $1.494 billion in 2026, representing a 20% increase year-over-year and...

Bullish Signals

  • Record Q1 adjusted EBITDA reached $1.494 billion.
  • Fleet reliability hit 97% for gas and 100% for nuclear.
  • Secured Cogentrix's 5,500 MW portfolio and Meta deals.
  • Fitch upgrade lifted Vistra to investment grade.
  • Completed $525 million buybacks in early 2026.
  • Organic projects totaling ~4,500 MW expected by 2028.
  • $10B+ cash generation forecast for 2026-2027.
  • Reaffirmed adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow guidance.
  • Forecast ERCOT load growth of 5–6% through 2030.
  • Hedge position extends to 2027 with tax credits.

Bearish Signals

  • Mild weather caused immediate retail earnings declines versus last year.
  • Retail growth upside is capped following unusually strong prior results.
  • PJM rulemaking uncertainty risks delaying projects and complicating contracts.
  • Investors should discount PJM queued project data due to build failures.
  • Soft power prices and batteries create near-term earnings pressure.
  • Batteries may fail returns without guaranteed long-term offtake contracts.
  • 2026-2027 outlook excludes pending Cogentrix and Meta deal closures.
2
Bullish +62

Vistra Has Edged Lower Throughout 2026: One Bank Says It’s On The Verge of Doubling

AI-generated analysis

Vistra Corp (NYSE: VST) is trading at approximately $152, representing a significant discount to the Wall Street consensus price target of $217 and Scotiabank's Street-high target of $298. Despite being identified as a premier unregulated clean and firm power supplier for the AI data center...

Bullish Signals

  • 2,600 MW Meta PPA anchors bull case.
  • Helix JV with NVIDIA strengthens AI position.
  • Share buybacks cut count by 30% since late 2021.
  • Adjusted EBITDA jumped 30% YoY to $1.77B.
  • Commercial availability held at 97%+ during heat waves.

Bearish Signals

  • Q2 revenue slipped 5.5% due to softer ERCOT forward curves and lower wholesale prices.
  • GAAP net income hit by $472 million in unrealized mark-to-market hedge losses.
  • CEO warns current $30/MWh ERCOT prices insufficient for new capacity incentives.
  • Weather-driven weakness in Texas retail book contributed to financial pressure and revenue declines.
  • Faces lingering decommissioning risks from Moss Landing nuclear plant adding future liabilities.
3
Bullish +75

Vistra Corp. $VST Shares Sold by Bank of America Corp DE

AI-generated analysis

Bank of America Corp DE reduced its stake in Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) by 10.2% in the first quarter, selling 339,461 shares and retaining a position worth approximately $448.57 million. While several smaller institutional investors like Fideuram Intesa Sanpaolo and Salomon & Ludwin increased their holdings,...

Bullish Signals

  • EPS beat: $2.87 vs $1.32 estimate.
  • Revenue beat: $5.64B vs $5.22B estimate.
  • ROE of 105.64% and net margin of 11.52%.
  • Major analysts upgraded ratings or raised targets.
  • Increased quarterly dividend of $0.23 declared.

Bearish Signals

  • Insiders sold a total of 41,588 shares valued at $6.74 million over the last 90 days, indicating some profit-taking or portfolio rebalancing.
  • Bank of America Corp DE reduced its stake by 10.2% in Q1, selling 339,461 shares despite maintaining a large overall position.
4
Bullish +65

Dimensional Fund Advisors LP Purchases 32,982 Shares of Vistra Corp ...

AI-generated analysis

Dimensional Fund Advisors LP increased its holdings in Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) by 1.0% in the first quarter, purchasing an additional 32,982 shares to own a total of 3,436,880 shares valued at approximately $516.6 million. This move aligns with other major institutional investors who also boosted...

Bullish Signals

  • Q1 EPS of $2.87 beat estimates by $1.55.
  • Net margin hit 11.52% with ROE at 105.64%.
  • Revenue reached $5.64B, exceeding expectations by $420M.
  • Institutional ownership stands high at 90.88%.
  • Scotiabank raised target to $298 with 'outperform' rating.

Bearish Signals

  • JPMorgan lowered Vistra price target from $240 to $231.
  • Insiders sold 41,588 shares worth $6.7 million in 90 days.
5
Bullish +75

Assetmark Inc. Sells 858,940 Shares of Vistra Corp. $VST

AI-generated analysis

Assetmark Inc. significantly reduced its stake in Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) by 89.9% in the first quarter, selling 858,940 shares and retaining only 96,958 shares valued at $14.576 million. While Assetmark trimmed its position, several other institutional investors including Fideuram Intesa Sanpaolo Private Banking S.P.A., McGuire...

Bullish Signals

  • EPS of $2.87 beat estimates of $1.32.
  • Net margin hit 11.52% with ROE at 105.64%.
  • Revenue of $5.64B exceeded expectations of $5.22B.
  • Analysts maintain 'outperform' ratings with targets above current price.
  • Consensus 'Buy' rating with average target of $230.62.
  • Quarterly dividend of $0.229 per share paid.

Bearish Signals

  • Sold 858,940 Vistra shares, trimming holdings by 89.9%.
  • Trading below 52-week high of $219.82.
6
Very Bullish +85

Vistra Reports First Quarter 2026 Results - PR Newswire

AI-generated analysis

Vistra Corp. reported strong first quarter 2026 financial results, with net income reaching $1,029 million, a significant increase of $1,297 million compared to the same period in 2025. The company's Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA stood at $1,494 million for the quarter, reflecting an increase of...

Bullish Signals

  • Vistra Q1 2026 Net Income hit $1,029 million.
  • Acquisition of the 5,500-MW Cogentrix portfolio is closing.
  • Fitch upgraded Vistra's credit rating to Investment Grade.
  • Vistra hedges 98% of expected generation volumes for 2026.
  • Liquidity stood at $4,173 million as of March 31.
  • EBITDA guidance points to a $7.4-$7.8 billion range.
  • Fleet showed operational reliability during Winter Storm Fern.

Bearish Signals

  • Q1 profit surged due to $1.3B unrealized gains, not operations.
  • Retail EBITDA hurt by mild Texas winter conditions.
  • $337M credit capacity excluded due to borrowing base limits.
  • 2026 guidance excludes pending acquisitions and power deals.
  • Significant risk if Cogentrix or Meta deals fail.
7
Very Bullish +85

Vistra Reports First Quarter 2026 Results

AI-generated analysis

Vistra Corp. reported strong first quarter 2026 results on May 7, 2026, driven by strategic acquisitions and operational resilience during volatile weather conditions. The company posted a GAAP net income of $1,029 million for the three months ended March 31, 2026, which includes a significant...

Bullish Signals

  • Q1 2026 Net Income reached $1.029 billion.
  • Full-year 2026 EBITDA guidance set at $6.8-$7.6 billion.
  • Corporate credit rating upgraded to Investment Grade.
  • Signed long-term PPA with Meta for nuclear sites.
  • Repurchased $6.3B in shares since Nov 2021.
  • Liquidity capacity stands at $4,173 million as of March 2026.
  • Hedges approximately 98% of expected 2026 generation volumes.
  • Targeting Cogentrix $5.5GW closing in second half.

Bearish Signals

  • Q1 earnings inflated by non-operational derivative gains ($1,290 million).
  • Retail segment suffered revenue loss due to unexpected mild weather.
  • Aggressive share buybacks ($6.3 billion) reduce capital for future volatility.
  • Actual borrowing capacity constrained by unutilized facility commitments ($337 million).
  • Growth drivers excluded from 2026-2027 financial guidance projections.
  • Earnings outlook lacks flexibility amidst high hedging concentration risks.
8
Slightly Bullish +25

Why the Long-Term Case for Vistra Corp. (VST) Remains Strong

AI-generated analysis

Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) demonstrated strong financial performance in the first quarter, reporting revenue of $5.64 billion, which exceeded the consensus estimate of $5.24 billion. Despite mild weather conditions affecting its retail electricity business, adjusted EBITDA surged 20% year-over-year, primarily driven by robust generation segment results....

Bullish Signals

  • "Vistra Corp. delivered first quarter revenue of $5.64 billion, surpassing the consensus estimate of $5.24 billion."
  • "Adjusted EBITDA witnessed a 20% year-over-year surge driven by strong performance from the generation segment."
  • "The company is accelerating its nuclear offering through the 2024 Energy Harbor acquisition, expanding future growth prospects."
  • "Vistra Corp. aims for sustained growth in adjusted EBITDA following the completion of strategic acquisitions like the Cogentrix portfolio."
  • "High-voltage transmission and power stations are key assets in Vistra's integrated model, which CEO expects to continue being a competitive strength."
  • "The company is among the stocks.

Bearish Signals

  • Price target cut from $208 to $202.
  • Q1 retail revenue hampered by mild weather.
9
Bullish +65

Vistra Lost 19% in Two Days on the Election. Then It Raised Its ...

Earnings report Guidance raised Share buyback AI-generated analysis

Vistra (VST) shares rebounded sharply on Friday, jumping 10.6% to $124.80 after a significant sell-off driven by Texas gubernatorial election results. The stock had fallen roughly 19% over two sessions following the election of Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa, who campaigned on a moratorium for new data...

Bullish Signals

  • Q3 adjusted EBITDA hit $2.378B, beating estimates by >50%.
  • 2027 outlook projects $7.7B-$8.5B adjusted EBITDA growth.
  • Authorized extra $1.5B share repurchases to return capital.
  • Hyperscaler demand in Texas remains strong post-election.
  • Raised 2026 EBITDA guidance midpoint on better ops.

Bearish Signals

  • Revenue missed by $0.44B due to power price fluctuations and hedging.
  • Stock fell 19% after Texas governor elected with data center moratorium.
  • KeyBanc downgrade cites risk of choked demand from paused approvals.
10
Bullish +65

Vistra (VST) Stock Climbs After Record Q3 Earnings Power

Earnings report Guidance raised AI-generated analysis

Vistra (VST) shares jumped approximately 3.8% to roughly $124.80 following the release of its record Q3 2026 earnings report. The company reported adjusted EBITDA of $2.378 billion, driven by strong cash generation and a significant increase in total revenue, which rose 27.7% year-over-year to $6.347...

Bullish Signals

  • Stock jumped 3.8% on record Q3 2026 earnings.
  • Adjusted EBITDA hit $2.378B in a record quarter.
  • Revenue rose 27.7% YoY to $6.347B in Q3.
  • Net income excluding items surged 80.9% to $1.092B.
  • EPS rose 82.4% to $3.25 reflecting strong ops.

Bearish Signals

  • Long-term contracts create margin pressure as costs rise on fixed pricing.
  • Rising wholesale/equipment costs threaten future net margins under obligations.
11
Bullish +75

CIBC starts coverage of Vistra stock with USD 201 target

Financial outlook AI-generated analysis

CIBC initiated coverage of Vistra Corp. with an Outperform rating and a USD 201 price target, noting that the stock was trading around EUR 131.06 prior to its upcoming November 6 earnings report. MarketBeat data indicates a consensus average target of USD 216.74 among analysts,...

Bullish Signals

  • CIBC initiated with Outperform rating and USD 201 price target.
12
Bullish +55

VST — Vistra Corp. financials, 10-year statements & ratios

Customer contract Financial outlook AI-generated analysis

Vistra Corp. (VST) is a diversified utility and independent power producer with a significant nuclear fleet, positioned to capitalize on surging AI-driven electricity demand. The company has secured substantial long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), including major contracts with Amazon, Meta, and New Era Energy &...

Bullish Signals

  • Secured 20-year PPA for up to 207 MW power.
  • Thiel Macro holds 42% portfolio stake in energy stock.
  • CEO executed insider stock purchases indicating undervaluation.
  • Analysts project 2026 Adjusted EBITDA between $6.8B-$7.6B.
  • Launched Helix Digital Infrastructure with KKR and NVIDIA.

Bearish Signals

  • Stock fell ~35% due to weak $30/MWh ERCOT prices.
  • Analysts cut 2027 EPS; projects may delay from low pricing.
  • Regulatory uncertainty slowed new clean baseload contract signings.
13
Bullish +75

Constellation Energy vs. Vistra: Nuclear's Two Biggest AI Bets, and why I'm Picking One.

AI infrastructure Dividend AI-generated analysis

The article analyzes two major nuclear energy providers, Constellation Energy (CEG) and Vistra Corp (VST), positioning them as key infrastructure bets for the AI boom driven by hyperscaler demand. It highlights that while Constellation possesses a larger overall fleet with significant long-term contracts from Microsoft...

Bullish Signals

  • Hyperscaler contract book covers 3.8 GW nuclear capacity.

Bearish Signals

  • Carries ~$19B debt requiring investor comfort.
  • Plans ~$3B capital spend for 2026.
14
Somewhat Bullish +45

Vistra Corp stock holds near USD 141 as earnings estimates rise

Earnings report AI-generated analysis

Vistra Corp stock traded at USD 141.35 on the New York Stock Exchange on September 23, 2026, maintaining a market capitalization of USD 47.13 billion. The utility company's valuation remains mixed as the share price sits below its 52-week high of USD 217.10 but above...

Bullish Signals

  • Analysts project quarterly EPS of USD 2.89, up 65.1% YoY.
  • Consensus sales estimates are USD 7.75 billion, up 55.8%.
  • Latest quarter EPS surprise was 16.88%, rising to USD 1.80.

Bearish Signals

  • Revenue fell 5.5% YoY to USD 4.02 billion.
  • Missed consensus by 36.17% at USD 6.29B.
  • Full-year EPS estimates dropped 1.9% recently.
15
Bullish +65

Vistra Corp. stock gains on 20-year Texas data center power deal

AI-generated analysis

Vistra Corp. (NYSE: VST) shares rose approximately 1.42% to $142.45 in pre-market trading on September 21, 2026, following the announcement of a significant long-term power purchase agreement. The deal involves an affiliate of Vistra, Luminant ET Services, supplying between 200 MW and 207 MW of...

Bullish Signals

  • Stock rose 1.42% after lucrative 20-year power purchase agreement.
  • Deal grants 5% equity stake in Texas data center project.
  • Utilizes existing 1,180 MW Odessa gas plant for optimization.
  • Analysts view contract as incremental support to investment thesis.
  • Trades at 17.7% discount to $171 fair value.
16
Bullish +55

Vistra Corp stock holds after Morgan Stanley keeps Buy

AI-generated analysis

Morgan Stanley analyst David Arcaro maintained a Buy rating on Vistra Corp. (VST) and raised its price target to USD 227.00, which sits above the current consensus of USD 222.46. The stock closed at USD 140.75 on September 18, 2026, trading below its 52-week high...

Bullish Signals

  • Morgan Stanley raised price target to USD 227.00 with Buy rating.
  • Q2 Adjusted EBITDA rose to USD 1.77 billion from USD 1.35 billion.
  • Texas EBITDA jumped to USD 311 million from USD 150 million.
  • Maintained full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of USD 6.8B-7.6B.

Bearish Signals

  • Q2 2026 revenue fell to USD 4.02B from USD 4.25B prior-year.
  • Net income eased to USD 305M from USD 327M last year.
17
Bullish +65

Vistra Won't Stop Declining in 2026: Why Does This Prominent Wall Street Firm Expect 120% Returns? - 247wallst.com

AI-generated analysis

Vistra Energy (NYSE: VST) shares have declined significantly in 2026, dropping nearly 30% over the trailing year and 14.78% year-to-date, while trading at $137.09 against a Wall Street consensus price target of $217.42. Despite this underperformance relative to the S&P 500, prominent analyst Shahriar Pourreza...

Bullish Signals

  • Guggenheim analyst Shahriar Pourreza targets a $300 price for VST, implying approximately 119% upside from current levels.
  • The company has secured a 20-year Power Purchase Agreement with AWS for up to 1,200 MW at the Comanche Peak nuclear site.
  • Meta PPAs cover more than 2,600 MW across PJM nuclear sites, providing long-term revenue visibility.
  • Vistra is pursuing the pending acquisition of Cogentrix for 5,500 MW to significantly expand its generation capacity.
  • A new joint venture with NVIDIA and KKR positions Vistra as a preferred power provider in the AI infrastructure buildout.
  • Underlying Ongoing Operations Adjusted EBITDA climbed over 30% year-over-year to $1.77 billion despite hedge losses.
  • Texas segment EBITDA more than doubled to $311 million, highlighting strong regional performance.
  • Management is confident in delivering at or above the midpoint of its $6.8 billion to $7.6 billion 2026 EBITDA guidance.
  • The stock trades at a forward P/E of 16 on TTM EPS of $5.93, presenting a modest multiple for an AI power leader.
  • Cogentrix and Meta PPAs could add roughly $700 million to the 2027 EBITDA midpoint, currently excluded from guidance.

Bearish Signals

  • Q2 2026 revenue declined 5.5% year-over-year to $4.02 billion due to $472 million in unrealized mark-to-market losses on derivative hedges.
  • GAAP net income slipped to $305 million from $327 million in the second quarter of 2026.
  • Management flagged meaningfully lower ERCOT forward curves, indicating a potential trend toward the low end of its 2027 EBITDA guidance range.
  • The company's 2028 book is only 72% hedged, leaving it exposed to power price weakness if market conditions deteriorate.
  • Moss Landing decommissioning costs and the integration of Cogentrix represent live financial risks for the company.
  • Shares have underperformed the broader market, dropping 14.78% year-to-date while the S&P 500 gained 12.82%.
18
Somewhat Bullish +45

Vistra (VST) to Post Quarterly Earnings on Friday - American Market News

AI-generated analysis

Vistra Corp (NYSE: VST) is scheduled to release its Q2 2026 earnings report before the market opens on Friday, August 7th, at 10:00 AM ET. Analysts currently project earnings per share of $2.43 and revenue of $5.428 billion for the quarter. The company previously reported...

Bullish Signals

  • EPS of $2.87 beat consensus of $1.32.
  • Morgan Stanley raised price target to $212.
  • Zacks Research upgraded stock to strong-buy rating.
  • Institutional investors increased positions by 24.1% and 40.7%.

Bearish Signals

  • Directors sold $6.7M in shares over last 90 days.
19
Somewhat Bullish +45

Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership Decreases Stock Position in ...

AI-generated analysis

Arrowstreet Capital Limited Partnership reduced its stake in Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) by 25.8% in the first quarter, selling 201,378 shares and holding a remaining position of 579,130 shares valued at $87.06 million. While Arrowstreet decreased its holdings, other institutional investors like Empowered Funds LLC, Woodline...

Bullish Signals

  • EPS of $2.87 beat consensus by $1.55.
  • Revenue of $5.64B exceeded analyst expectations.
  • Net margin of 11.52% and ROE of 105.64%.
  • Target price of $230.62 with 'Buy' rating.
  • Zacks upgraded to 'strong-buy' on July 20th.
  • Dividend of $0.229 with low 15.41% payout.

Bearish Signals

  • Arrowstreet reduced stake by 25.8% in Q1.
  • JPMorgan lowered price target from $240 to $231.
  • Directors sold 31,500 shares worth over $5 million.
  • Current ratio of 0.90 and quick ratio of 0.79.
20
Slightly Bullish +25

Freemont Management S.A. Increases Holdings in Vistra Corp. $VST

AI-generated analysis

Freemont Management S.A. significantly increased its stake in Vistra Corp. (NYSE:VST) by 738.1% in the first quarter, purchasing an additional 46,500 shares to hold a total of 52,800 shares valued at $7.9 million. This move positions Vistra as the 28th largest holding for Freemont, representing...

Bullish Signals

  • Freemont Management stake surged 738.1%.
  • Jennison Associates holdings now exceed $228 million.
  • Financiere des Professionnels stake rose 589.9%.
  • Seaport Research target price set at $230.
  • Morgan Stanley target price is $210.
  • Dividend yield stands at 0.6% with 15.41% payout.
  • Institutional ownership remains high at 90.88%.

Bearish Signals

  • Weiss Ratings downgraded Vistra from 'hold (c+)' to 'hold (c)'.
  • TD Cowen reduced target price from $253.00 to $230.00.
  • Insiders sold 41,588 shares worth $6.74 million in three months.
  • Current ratio of 0.90 and quick ratio of 0.79 indicate liquidity pressure.