Vistra Corp.

(New York Stock Exchange)
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Bullish +55

VST β€” Vistra Corp. financials, 10-year statements & ratios

Customer contract Financial outlook AI-generated analysis

πŸ“ˆ Vistra secured a 20-year PPA with New Era Energy & Digital for up to 207 MW of power for a Texas data center, providing long-term revenue visibility and a 5% equity stake.

πŸ’° Analysts project 2026 Adjusted EBITDA between $6.8 billion and $7.6 billion, supported by growing contracted load from hyperscalers like Amazon and Meta.

🀝 Thiel Macro LLC disclosed a new AI-related holding in Vistra, with the energy stock comprising about 42% of their portfolio alongside Amazon.

πŸ“‰ Stock price has fallen roughly 30-36% over the past year due to lower ERCOT power prices and regulatory concerns despite strong earnings revisions.

πŸ—οΈ Vistra launched Helix Digital Infrastructure with KKR and NVIDIA, securing long-duration capital for global AI infrastructure deployment.

πŸ“Š The company trades at a forward P/E of approximately 13x-15x, significantly lower than Constellation Energy's 26x valuation.

πŸ›‘οΈ CEO James Burke executed insider stock purchases in August, signaling management belief that the current price undervalues the business.

βš–οΈ Vistra edges out competitor Talen Energy (TLN) with a higher Return on Equity (ROE), lower leverage, and a larger nuclear footprint.

πŸ”‹ Nuclear fleet performance remains robust, operating at 93% capacity in ERCOT and 91% in PJM regions.

πŸ“‰ Analyst consensus EPS for the current quarter is estimated at $2.89, representing a 65% year-over-year increase.

Bullish Signals
  • Vistra secured a 20-year PPA with New Era Energy & Digital for up to 207 MW of power, securing long-term revenue visibility and receiving a 5% non-voting equity stake in the project.
  • Thiel Macro LLC disclosed a new AI-related holding in Vistra, with the energy stock comprising about 42% of their portfolio alongside Amazon, signaling strong institutional confidence.
  • CEO James Burke executed insider stock purchases at the end of August, indicating management believes the current share price undervalues the company's prospects.
  • Analysts project 2026 Adjusted EBITDA between $6.8 billion and $7.6 billion, supported by growing contracted load from major hyperscalers like Amazon and Meta.
  • Vistra launched Helix Digital Infrastructure with partners KKR and NVIDIA, securing long-duration capital for global AI infrastructure deployment and strengthening its growth engine.
  • The company trades at a forward P/E of approximately 13x-15x, significantly lower than peer Constellation Energy's 26x valuation, offering potential value upside.
  • Vistra edges out competitor Talen Energy (TLN) with a higher Return on Equity (ROE), lower leverage, and a larger nuclear footprint providing a competitive edge.
Risk Factors
  • Stock price has fallen roughly 30-36% over the past year due to persistently weak ERCOT power prices around $30/MWh and concerns over Texas grid audits.
  • Analysts have recently edged down 2027 EPS estimates, with some projecting that new projects could be delayed by lower pricing environments.
  • Regulatory uncertainty in PJM and a pending FERC order expected in early 2027 have slowed the pace of signing new long-term contracts for clean baseload output.
Full Analysis
Vistra Corp. (VST) is a diversified utility and independent power producer with a significant nuclear fleet, positioned to capitalize on surging AI-driven electricity demand. The company has secured substantial long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), including major contracts with Amazon, Meta, and New Era Energy & Digital for its Texas data center projects. These agreements provide critical revenue visibility and fund infrastructure investments, aligning Vistra's growth strategy with the expanding hyperscale market. Financial performance remains a key focus, with analysts projecting 2026 Adjusted EBITDA between $6.8 billion and $7.6 billion. However, the stock has faced headwinds from declining ERCOT power prices in Texas, causing a significant price drop over the past year. Despite this, insider buying by CEO James Burke and a large stake by Thiel Macro LLC suggest confidence in Vistra's undervaluation relative to its forward P/E of roughly 13x. Strategic developments include the formation of Helix Digital Infrastructure with partners KKR and NVIDIA to finance AI-ready data centers, leveraging Vistra's energy operations. The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a debt-to-capital ratio of approximately 78% and has returned over $8 billion to shareholders via buybacks and dividends. While regulatory uncertainty in PJM and Texas grid audits pose risks, the long-term contracted load from hyperscalers offers a durable competitive edge.