Eli Lilly vs. Novo Nordisk: The Obesity Drug Race Has a New Leader
Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE: LLY) and Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE: NVO) reported contrasting quarterly results in early February that have widened the competitive gap between the two giants in the obesity drug market. Lilly's fourth-quarter revenue surged to $19.29 billion, representing a 42.6% year-over-year...
Bullish Signals
- Q4 revenue hit $19.29B, up 42.6% YoY driven by tirzepatide.
- Mounjaro Q4 sales reached $7.41B (up 110%), Zepbound added $4.26B (up 123%).
- Tirzepatide achieves ~20% weight loss, beating Novo's Wegovy (~14%).
- Lilly expanding manufacturing across Alabama, Pennsylvania, and Europe.
- Orforglipron approved in U.S., Japan, EU; beat oral semaglutide head-to-head.
- Retatrutide lost up to 71.2 lbs in Phase 3 trials.
- Orforglipron oral approval expected mid-2026 after beating oral semaglutide.
- Lilly trades at 27x forward P/E, reflecting strong growth momentum.
- Lilly up 27.65% vs. Novo down 39.85% over the past year.
Bearish Signals
- Revenue down 7.6% YoY; U.S. fell 15%.
- Operating income slipped 0.53% amid cost pressures.
- CEO warns of 2026 pricing headwinds in competition.
- Cut 9,000 jobs; absorbed $8B charges in 2025.
- Faces structural U.S. pricing pressure and patent expiry.
- Diabetes market share down 3.6 points to 30.1%.
- Stock down 39.85% YoY with forward P/E of 11x.
- Competitor oral tirzepatide outperforms, threatening Novo's launch.