Eli Lilly and Company

🇺🇸New York Stock Exchange
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Eli Lilly and Company stock analysis LLY overview
Bullish +60

Eli Lilly vs Novo Nordisk: The Battle for Obesity Drug Supremacy

📈 Eli Lilly reported Q1 2026 revenue growth of 55.5% and raised non-GAAP EPS guidance to $35.5-$37.

💊 Mounjaro generated $8.66 billion in revenue, up 125% year over year, while Zepbound added $4.16 billion.

📉 Novo Nordisk posted a 4% adjusted sales decline at constant currency and announced plans to cut 9,000 jobs.

💊 Foundayo received FDA approval as the only GLP-1 pill with no food or water restrictions.

🚀 Lilly announced acquisitions of Orna, Centessa, Kelonia, and Ajax to expand into cell therapy and other biology areas.

📉 Novo's Ozempic sales slid 8% in the US, while Rybelsus dropped 15% globally.

💊 Novo's new Wegovy pill launched on January 5, 2026, booked $2.26 billion with over 1 million patients.

📉 The CagriSema REDEFINE 4 trial missed its primary endpoint despite achieving 23% weight loss.

💸 A planned 50% Wegovy list price cut in January 2027 is expected to pressure Novo's margins.

🏥 Medicare Part D coverage for obesity drugs begins July 1, 2026, potentially offsetting future price cuts for Novo.

📈 Eli Lilly's stock has risen 48.98% over the past year reflecting bullish investor sentiment.

📉 Novo Nordisk shares are down 41.53% over the past year and 14.22% year to date.

Bullish Signals
  • Eli Lilly grew revenue by 55.5% in Q1 2026, demonstrating strong momentum in its obesity franchise.
  • Lilly raised its non-GAAP EPS guidance to $35.5-$37, indicating confidence in future performance.
  • Mounjaro revenue surged 125% year over year to $8.66 billion, driven by international launches and China's NRDL inclusion.
  • Zepbound revenue increased 80% to $4.16 billion, showing robust growth in the weight-loss category.
  • Lilly successfully executed a volume-driven strategy with a 65% jump in volume despite lower realized prices.
  • Foundayo was approved by the FDA as the only GLP-1 pill without food or water restrictions, offering a unique market advantage.
  • Lilly's international revenue climbed 81%, suggesting significant global expansion potential.
  • Acquisitions in cell therapy and sleep-wake biology indicate a diversified growth strategy beyond current obesity drugs.
  • Ebglyss revenue jumped 141% and Jaypirka rose 79%, highlighting success in other therapeutic areas.
  • Lilly's stock price increased 48.98% over the past year, reflecting strong market confidence.
Risk Factors
  • Novo Nordisk reported a 4% adjusted sales decline at constant currency, signaling weakness in its core franchise.
  • Novo is cutting 9,000 jobs as part of a restructuring effort to address declining sales and portfolio fragmentation.
  • Ozempic US sales fell 11%, while Rybelsus dropped 15%, indicating challenges in the oral semaglutide segment.
  • The CagriSema REDEFINE 4 trial missed its primary endpoint, denting the next-generation drug thesis for Novo.
  • A planned 50% Wegovy list price cut in January 2027 will likely pressure Novo's gross margins significantly.
  • Novo Nordisk shares are down 41.53% over the past year and 14.22% year to date, reflecting investor concerns.
  • Lilly's high valuation means any stumble with Foundayo or other products could lead to a sharp stock correction.
Full Analysis
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk reported divergent Q1 2026 results that highlight a shifting landscape in the obesity drug market. Eli Lilly grew revenue by 55.5% and raised guidance, driven primarily by tirzepatide products Mounjaro and Zepbound, which saw significant year-over-year growth fueled by international expansion and China's NRDL inclusion. In contrast, Novo Nordisk reported a 4% adjusted sales decline at constant currency, prompting the company to announce plans to cut 9,000 jobs as it consolidates its franchise around semaglutide. Lilly's strategy involves aggressive growth through both organic expansion and acquisitions in cell therapy and other biology areas. The company successfully launched Foundayo, the first GLP-1 pill without food or water restrictions, while managing a deliberate trade where volume jumped 65% despite a 13% drop in realized prices. Conversely, Novo is facing headwinds with its injectable Wegovy growing only 12% while oral products like Ozempic and Rybelsus declined, leading to a restructuring effort that includes absorbing the Most Favoured Nations pricing deal. The article concludes by comparing the two companies' strategic positions for the future. Lilly is viewed as the cleaner business with strong offense-mode execution, reflected in its stock price surge, though its valuation is high. Novo presents a potential turnaround story with a gross margin of 81% and a new oral semaglutide product, but faces risks from upcoming Medicare coverage changes and planned list price cuts in January 2027 that could pressure margins.