Vistra Corp.

(New York Stock Exchange)
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Somewhat Bearish -35

How Big Could Vistra Stock's Next Fall Be?

Acquisition Company update AI-generated analysis

πŸ“‰ Vistra stock fell 25.1% in the month leading up to November 4, 2026, ending at its lowest close of the past year.

πŸ“Š Operating margins improved to 19.4% over the twelve months ending June 2026, though revenue growth slowed significantly to 3.8%.

πŸ’° Total debt reached $19.9 billion by June 2026, representing 49.1% of the company's market value as of November 4.

⚑ Management noted that Texas power prices have softened, pushing forward prices for 2027 lower than previously anticipated.

πŸ“ˆ Vistra is trending toward the lower end of its 2027 adjusted EBITDA range of $7.4 billion to $7.8 billion due to softer pricing.

🀝 Recent acquisitions including the Cogentrix purchase and nuclear contracts with Meta could add roughly $700 million to the 2027 midpoint.

πŸ“… The company is expected to update its 2027 adjusted EBITDA outlook alongside third-quarter results on November 6, 2026.

🏦 Vistra priced $1.5 billion of notes due in 2057 in September as part of its financing activities.

Bullish Signals
  • Operating margins expanded to 19.4% over the twelve months ending June 2026, up from 13.0% two years earlier.
  • The company completed the acquisition of Cogentrix and secured nuclear power contracts with Meta, which could add roughly $700 million to the 2027 EBITDA midpoint.
  • Vistra has a history of recovering from market sell-offs, with shares returning to earlier highs after each decline.
Risk Factors
  • Shares fell 25.1% in the month leading up to November 4, 2026, reaching the lowest close of the past year.
  • Revenue growth has slowed significantly to 3.8% over the trailing twelve months, down from a 31.6% increase the prior year.
  • Total debt reached $19.9 billion by June 2026, representing 49.1% of market value, which is nearly three times the S&P 500 average.
  • Power prices in Texas have softened, causing forward prices for 2027 to be meaningfully lower than when the outlook was set.
  • The company is trending toward the lower end of its 2027 adjusted EBITDA range due to softer power prices and lower forward curves.
Full Analysis
Shares of Vistra (VST) declined 25.1% in the month leading up to November 4, 2026, reaching its lowest close of the past year. The stock has historically been more volatile than the broader market during sell-offs, falling an average of 18.5% across eight major downturns compared to the S&P 500's 15.2%. While Vistra eventually recovers from these lows with a median wait time of 1.8 months, the recent decline places it at a significant low point relative to its peers. Financial performance for the twelve months ending June 2026 shows mixed results. Operating margins improved to 19.4%, up from 13.0% two years prior, though they have stabilized near the previous year's level of 19.7%. Revenue growth has notably slowed, rising only 3.8% in the trailing twelve months compared to a 31.6% surge the year before, with a specific 5.5% drop recorded in fiscal Q2 2026. Vistra carries substantial debt obligations, totaling $19.9 billion at the end of June 2026, which represents 49.1% of its market value as of November 4, significantly higher than the S&P 500 average. Management indicated that power prices in Texas have softened, causing forward prices for 2027 to be lower than previously expected. Consequently, Vistra is trending toward the lower end of its adjusted EBITDA range for 2027, though recent acquisitions like Cogentrix and nuclear contracts with Meta could add approximately $700 million to that outlook. Looking ahead, investors are focused on Vistra's updated 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance, which management plans to release alongside third-quarter results expected on November 6, 2026. The company recently priced $1.5 billion of notes due in 2057, reflecting its ongoing capital structure management amidst the current market conditions and softer power price environment.