Texas Instruments Incorporated

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Bullish +75

Texas Instruments or ON Semiconductor: Which Analog Chip Stock Won in April?

AI-generated analysis

📈 ON Semiconductor led April performance with a massive 63% gain compared to Texas Instruments' 45%.

⚡ Both stocks are power semiconductor leaders riding similar cycles but with different end-market drivers.

💰 ON shares closed at $103.03 while Texas Instruments closed near $281, both trading slightly lower on Monday.

🔋 The main driver for ON's surge was silicon carbide (SiC) demand from electric vehicles and AI data centers.

📉 ON has a smaller market cap of about $40.5 billion, giving its stock higher torque than the larger peer.

📅 Legacy OEMs are scaling production again after a 2025 destocking period to pull forward April growth.

🤖 Texas Instruments posted a strong Q1 2026 report on April 22 with revenue of $4.83 billion beating estimates.

📊 TI's Analog segment grew 22% year-over-year to $3.92 billion with free cash flow surging 611%.

🗣️ CEO Haviv Ilan noted that revenue increased 19% year-over-year led by industrial and data center segments.

🏭 TI earns its growth from durability, sticky customers, and a capital expenditure cycle largely behind it.

⚠️ The downside risk for both stocks is uneven industrial recovery and potential disappointment in the EV cycle.

🎯 Analyst consensus targets of $75.17 for ON and $274.94 for TXN are currently below their stock prices.

📉 HSBC downgraded AMD on valuation concerns, which may negatively impact sentiment for the broader analog sector.

💼 Insider selling at Texas Instruments shows 93 recent transactions with a net negative tilt.

🔮 The forward thesis for ON rests on structural SiC demand through 2027 and power-conversion needs for AI data centers.

⚖️ Prudent investors should consider moderate position sizing after such large moves given the limited margin of error in May.

📉 The Polymarket question regarding ON's quarterly results has a 93% probability of being priced in.

Bullish Signals
  • ON Semiconductor posted a remarkable 63% gain in April, outperforming its benchmark peer Texas Instruments (which gained 45%) and closing at $103.03.
  • Texas Instruments delivered a blowout Q1 2026 report on April 22 with revenue of $4.83 billion beating consensus by 7% and EPS of $1.68 topping the $1.36 estimate.
  • Texas Instruments' Analog segment grew 22% year-over-year to $3.92 billion, while free cash flow surged an impressive 611% YoY.
  • CEO Haviv Ilan highlighted that TI revenue increased 19% from the same quarter a year ago, driven specifically by growth in industrial and data center markets.
  • ON Semiconductor benefits from a dominant silicon carbide (SiC) franchise supplying EV power electronics and high-density AI rack power conversion, with a forward thesis extending through 2027.
  • The market prices in a 93% probability that ON Semiconductor will beat its quarterly results according to Polymarket sentiment data.
  • Texas Instruments has secured a large Q2 2026 revenue guide of $5 billion to $5.4 billion, supporting continued capital return through dividends and buybacks.
  • ON Semiconductor possesses significant pricing power in the power semiconductor space as supply remains constrained amidst growing structural demand from EVs and AI.
Risk Factors
  • The stock has gained 86% year-to-date for ON Semiconductor and roughly 63% for Texas Instruments, which creates limited margin of error heading into May.
  • Analyst consensus price targets of $75.17 for ON Semiconductor and $274.94 for TXN both sit significantly below current prices, indicating the market may be overvalued relative to near-term expectations.
  • The industrial demand recovery remains uneven across Texas Instruments' portfolio mix, creating uncertainty in its broader diversified analog segment.
  • There are concerns that the automotive cycle could disappoint if electric vehicle demand softens beyond current forecasts.
  • HSBC's recent downgrade of AMD stock on valuation issues serves as a negative sentiment flashpoint for the broader semiconductor complex, potentially affecting peer sentiment.
  • Insider selling activity on Texas Instruments is trending net negative with 93 recent transactions, signaling potential lack of confidence from company insiders.
  • The forward thesis for ON Semiconductor relies heavily on structural SiC demand which could disappoint if EV demand slows or power semi pricing power diminishes.
Full Analysis
Texas Instruments and ON Semiconductor were evaluated at the start of a new week following an impressive month for the analog chip sector in April, with ON Semiconductor emerging as the clear winner by delivering a 63% gain compared to Texas Instruments' 45%. The divergence is attributed to different end-market exposures, where ON Semiconductor benefited significantly from its silicon carbide (SiC) franchise supplying electric vehicles and AI data centers, while Texas Instruments, with its broader diversified industrial portfolio, lacked the specific power-semiconductor inflection that drove its rival. Current pricing places ON shares at $103.03 and Texas Instruments at $281.02 as of Friday's close, though both ticked lower in the early Monday session. ON Semiconductor's success is driven by re-accelerating demand for SiC after a 2025 destocking pullback, allowing legacy OEMs and EV producers to scale production again alongside industrial recovery. The company's smaller market cap of approximately $40.5 billion provides greater stock torque than its larger peer, and sentiment metrics are overwhelmingly bullish with a composite score of 73.55 and a Polymarket price implying a 93% probability of an earnings beat. Conversely, Texas Instruments posted a phenomenal Q1 2026 report in mid-April that beat revenue consensus by 7% and topped EPS estimates, driving analog segment growth of 22% year-over-year to $3.92 billion and a massive surge in free cash flow of 611%. CEO Haviv Ilan highlighted sequential revenue increases of 9% and 19% year-over-year driven by industrial and data center sectors, though the stock's larger market cap of nearly $256 billion creates more inertia preventing it from matching ON's momentum. Looking forward, investors must weigh the strong structural demand for power semiconductors in ON Semiconductor against the durability and sticky customer base of Texas Instruments. Risks remain on both sides as industrial recovery remains uneven and valuation extensions are evident after significant year-to-date gains, with analyst targets currently below current stock prices. Furthermore, insider selling activity at Texas Instruments and a recent HSBC downgrade of AMD suggest broader caution within the complex, prompting recommendations for moderate position sizing while key catalysts such as ON Semiconductor's Q2 SiC commentary and the resolution of Polymarket earnings probability bets await further market reaction.