Texas Instruments Incorporated

(NASDAQ Global Select)
Back to all articles
Slightly Bullish +15

Earnings Preview: What To Expect From Texas Instruments' Report

AI-generated analysis

📈 Texas Instruments has a market cap of $176.1 billion and operates through Analog and Embedded Processing segments serving automotive, industrial, and personal electronics markets.

🔍 The company is set to announce fiscal Q1 2026 earnings, with analysts predicting EPS of $1.37, representing over 7% growth from the previous quarter.

💹 For fiscal 2026, consensus EPS estimates are $6.35 (up 16.5%), while projections show 19.7% growth to $7.60 for fiscal 2027.

📉 Over the past 52 weeks, TI shares have risen 6.2%, underperforming both the S&P 500 and the Technology Select Sector ETF.

💪 Following Q4 2025 results, TI shares gained 9.9% after forecasting stronger revenue driven by surging AI-related demand and an ending analog chip inventory glut.

📊 Data center revenue grew 70% in Q4 and now accounts for 9% of total sales, contributing to broader industrial recovery with high-tens percentage growth.

🎯 Analysts maintain a "Moderate Buy" rating on average, though sentiment is slightly less bullish than three months ago compared to previous ratings.

🔮 The consensus view indicates TI could provide accelerating growth despite slight Q4 revenue misses, positioning the firm for better demand cycles.

💰 The average analyst price target is set at $220.72, suggesting 14.1% potential upside from current trading levels.

👥 Of the 35 analysts covering TXN stock, ratings are split with 12 "Strong Buy," 18 "Holds," and several sell recommendations.

Bullish Signals
  • Analysts predict Texas Instruments will report fiscal Q1 2026 EPS of $1.37, representing over 7% growth compared to the $1.28 reported in the prior year quarter.
  • For fiscal 2026, expected EPS is projected at $6.35, marking a significant 16.5% increase from the $5.45 achieved in fiscal 2025.
  • Forward-looking expectations are robust with EPS projected to grow 19.7% year-over-year to reach $7.60 in fiscal 2027.
  • Following Q4 2025 results, shares climbed 9.9% after the company forecast stronger-than-expected Q1 revenue between $4.32 billion and $4.68 billion.
  • Q4 saw data center revenue rise dramatically by 70%, indicating surging AI-related demand which contributed 9% of total sales in 2025.
  • The analog chip inventory glut is showing signs of ending, which could position the company for accelerating growth going forward.
  • Despite being an underperformer relative to the index recently, analyst consensus remains cautiously optimistic with a "Moderate Buy" rating and 12 out of 35 analysts recommending a "Strong Buy".
  • The average analyst price target is set at $220.72, suggesting potential upside of 14.1% from current trading levels.
Risk Factors
  • Shares of Texas Instruments have lagged behind the broader market, with only 6.2% gains over the past 52 weeks versus the S&P 500 Index's 13.4% return and the Technology Sector ETF's 24.2% surge.
  • The company missed on earnings expectations one of the past four quarters, indicating a recent track record of hitting performance shortfalls despite three successes.
  • Analyst sentiment has weakened slightly over the last three months, with the number of 'Strong Buy' recommendations dropping from 13 to 12 out of 35 total analysts covering the stock.
  • Among the 35 analysts covering TXN, four have issued a 'Strong Sell' rating and one has rated it as a 'Moderate Sell', signaling lingering pessimism among investors.
Full Analysis
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN), a Dallas-based semiconductor designer with a market capitalization of $176.1 billion, is poised to release its fiscal Q1 2026 earnings report. The company operates through Analog and Embedded Processing segments, serving automotive, industrial, and personal electronics markets with products ranging from power management solutions to microcontrollers. Analysts predict the firm will report earnings per share (EPS) of $1.37 for the upcoming quarter, representing a more than 7% increase from the $1.28 EPS recorded in the same quarter last year. Historically, TXN has exceeded Wall Street's earnings expectations in three of its past four quarters. Looking further ahead, analysts project an EPS of $6.35 for fiscal 2026, marking a 16.5% increase from the $5.45 reported in fiscal 2025, with long-term growth forecasts reaching $7.60 per share in fiscal 2027. Previous performance has been mixed; while shares gained 9.9% following Q4 2025 results on January 27, the company missed its Q4 revenue target slightly, reporting $4.42 billion against a forecast of $4.32 billion to $4.68 billion. That report highlighted strong AI-related demand and an ending inventory glut as positive drivers for future growth, with data center revenue surging 70% in the fourth quarter. Despite missing Q4 revenue expectations by approximately $10 million, the company remains bullish on the outlook, citing a broader industrial recovery with revenue growth in the high double-digits percentage range. However, stock performance over the past 52 weeks has trailed the broader market; TXN shares gained 6.2% compared to the S&P 500's 13.4% and the Technology sector ETF's (XLK) 24.2% returns. The consensus analyst rating remains "Moderate Buy," though sentiment has softened slightly from three months ago. Out of 35 analysts covering the stock, the breakdown currently stands at 12 "Strong Buys," 18 "Holds," one "Moderate Sell," and four "Strong Sells." The average price target for Texas Instruments is set at $220.72, suggesting a potential upside of 14.1% from current levels. Investors continue to watch the company closely for signs that the analog chip inventory cycle has fully normalized, which could position TXN for sustained acceleration in earnings. The fiscal 2026 guidance and Q1 2026 report will be critical in confirming whether recent data center demand trends can translate into consistent top-line growth across its diverse portfolio of industries.