Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc.

(NASDAQ Global Select)
Back to all articles
Bullish +65

Take-Two Interactive Software set to deliver in-line quarter as GTA VI update draws focus

AI-generated analysis

📅 Take-Two Interactive is scheduled to report fiscal Q4 earnings after market close on May 21, with focus on GTA VI launch timing.

💬 Wedbush analysts reiterated an 'Outperform' rating and set a $300 price target ahead of the release.

🎮 Investors view the upcoming call as a critical "go/no-go" moment regarding the November 19, 2026 launch date.

⏱️ Rockstar Games historically delays major titles roughly six months before launch, making this call a key test for GTA VI stability.

🛒 A leaked Best Buy affiliate email suggests physical pre-orders could go live between May 18 and May 21.

📊 Wedbush forecasts Q4 net bookings of $1.56 billion and EPS of $0.56, at the top end of company guidance.

📱 Mobile performance from titles like Match Factory! is expected to provide additional upside in this quarter.

💳 Zynga’s new direct-pay checkout system could drive higher bookings and margins for Take-Two.

📅 Management plans to release an initial fiscal 2027 outlook during the earnings call.

📉 Wedbush forecasts FY2027 EPS of $6.40, which is below the Wall Street consensus of $7.97 due to GTA VI marketing and amortization costs.

🗓️ Estimates currently cover only seven weeks of anticipated GTA VI sales, leaving room for significant upside potential.

💰 Recurring revenue from GTA Online, GTA+ subscriptions, and mobile gaming may support a higher valuation multiple.

Bullish Signals
  • Wedbush analysts have reiterated an 'Outperform' rating on Take-Two Interactive with a $300 price target ahead of the fiscal fourth quarter earnings report.
  • A leaked Best Buy marketing email suggests physical pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI may go live between May 18 and May 21, signaling strong confidence in the November 19, 2026 release date.
  • For the upcoming quarter, Wedbush forecasts net bookings of $1.56 billion and earnings per share of $0.56 at the high end of company guidance.
  • Mobile segments are expected to provide upside potential through continued strength from titles like Match Factory!, Toon Blast, and Color Block Jam.
  • Zynga's newer direct-pay checkout system is highlighted as a potential driver of higher bookings and margins in the future.
  • Recurring revenue streams such as GTA Online subscriptions and mobile gaming support a higher valuation multiple compared to previous console cycles.
Risk Factors
  • Take-Two Interactive is scheduled to report fiscal fourth quarter earnings after market close on May 21, with investors heavily focused on commentary regarding the launch timing of Grand Theft Auto VI.
  • Wedbush analysts note that Rockstar Games historically announces major delays roughly six months before launch, creating significant uncertainty around the highly anticipated GTA VI release.
  • Company guidance for Q4 net bookings ranges from $1.51 billion to $1.56 billion, with consensus estimates currently standing at $1.552 billion, leaving little room for downside if performance falters.
  • Wedbush forecasts fiscal 2027 EPS of $6.40, which is significantly below Wall Street's EPS consensus of $7.97 due to expected launch-related marketing and amortization expenses tied to GTA VI.
  • A leaked Best Buy affiliate marketing email suggests potential pre-order campaigns between May 18 and May 21, but these dates could still shift, introducing supply chain or timing risks.
  • The firm's fiscal 2027 guidance estimates only account for about seven weeks of GTA VI sales before the fiscal year ends on March 31, which may not fully capture long-term value if launch delays occur.
Full Analysis
Take-Two Interactive Software Inc (NASDAQ:TTWO) is poised to report fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after the market close on May 21, with investor attention centering on potential commentary regarding the launch timing of Grand Theft Auto VI. Wedbush analysts maintain an 'Outperform' rating with a $300 price target, noting that while the financial results are expected to be in-line with guidance, the critical takeaway will come from management's stance on the November 19, 2026 release date. The brokerage cites Rockstar Games' historical pattern of announcing delays approximately six months prior to launch, suggesting that if management does not announce a delay during the earnings call, the probability of the game hitting its scheduled November launch could rise above 90%. The analysts highlighted a leaked Best Buy affiliate marketing email referencing potential physical pre-orders for GTA VI going live between May 18 and May 21 as further evidence of management's confidence in the release schedule. For the fiscal fourth quarter, Wedbush forecasts net bookings of $1.56 billion and earnings per share of $0.56, which sits at the high end of Take-Two's guidance range of $1.51 billion to $1.56 billion for bookings and $0.46 to $0.56 for EPS. These figures exceed the broader Wall Street consensus estimates of $1.552 billion in bookings and $0.57 in EPS, with potential upside from mobile titles such as Match Factory! and Zynga's new direct-pay checkout system driving higher margins. Looking beyond the immediate quarter, Wedbush expects Take-Two to provide an initial outlook for fiscal 2027 during the earnings call, which is likely to reflect significant marketing and amortization expenses tied to GTA VI. Consequently, analysts project fiscal 2027 bookings of $9.4 billion and EPS of $6.40, which trails Wall Street's consensus EPS forecast of $7.97. However, recurring revenue streams including GTA Online subscriptions, the GTA+ service, and continued strength in mobile gaming support a valuation multiple higher than previous console cycles, with potential upside dependent on future pricing strategies, online engagement metrics, and direct-to-consumer sales trends.