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Bullish +75

Memory prices could jump 60%: why Micron and SanDisk are breaking out again

AI-generated analysis

📈 Susquehanna analyst Mehdi Hosseini forecasts DRAM prices to rise 50% sequentially this quarter and another 20% in Q4 2026.

🚀 NAND flash memory prices are expected to climb 60% sequentially this quarter and a further 25% next quarter.

📊 Memory chips now represent between 50% and 55% of total semiconductor revenue, compared to historical shares of 20-30%.

📈 SanDisk stock has surged 531% year-to-date, significantly outperforming Micron's 250% gain.

🔧 Micron is targeting a doubling of its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) production capacity by the end of the year.

📉 The sector faces cyclical risks where increased production could eventually reverse price gains and pressure margins.

📅 Micron's fiscal fourth-quarter results on September 30 will be a critical test for sustained revenue growth.

💹 Options volatility in the semiconductor sector has fallen to around 36 from roughly 65 in July, easing forced selling.

🤝 Nvidia relies heavily on HBM to handle intensive AI workloads, driving demand for Micron's capacity expansion.

📉 Goldman Sachs notes that Micron and SanDisk are breaking out of downtrends that constrained shares during the summer.

Bullish Signals
  • SanDisk stock has surged 531% year-to-date, significantly outperforming peers as memory prices rise.
  • NAND flash prices are forecast to increase 60% sequentially this quarter and 25% next quarter due to AI demand.
  • The company is benefiting from a severe supply shortage that has turned memory into the 'king' of the semiconductor industry.
  • SanDisk shares have broken out of summer downtrends, supported by falling semiconductor volatility and returning investor interest.
  • The broader AI boom fuels demand for data-center hardware, pushing memory prices higher and boosting earnings tailwinds.
Risk Factors
  • Investors face the risk that NAND supply catching up could cause the sharp price run to reverse quickly.
Full Analysis
Susquehanna analyst Mehdi Hosseini forecasts a significant surge in memory chip prices driven by AI data center demand, predicting DRAM prices will rise 50% sequentially this quarter and another 20% in Q4 2026. NAND flash prices are expected to climb even more sharply, with a forecasted 60% increase this quarter followed by a 25% rise next quarter. This pricing power is attributed to severe supply shortages and an enormous appetite for memory as companies deploy powerful AI systems. SanDisk, the parent company of which is Western Digital (WDC), has seen its stock price surge 531% year-to-date, outperforming Micron Technology's 250% gain. Both companies have broken out of summer downtrends, supported by easing options volatility and a return of investor interest after a quieter period. The memory sector now accounts for 50-55% of total semiconductor revenue, up from historical levels of 20-30%, marking it as the primary driver of the current industry growth cycle. The article highlights that high-bandwidth memory (HBM) production is critical for AI accelerators, with Micron targeting a doubling of capacity by year-end. While this expansion tightens the broader memory market, investors face cyclical risks where production increases could eventually reverse price gains. The next major test for Micron involves its fiscal Q4 results on September 30, which must prove that the price surge translates into sustained revenue and profit growth rather than a temporary improvement.