Rigetti Computing, Inc.

(NASDAQ Capital Market)
Back to all articles
Somewhat Bearish -35

How Much Could You Lose In Rigetti Computing Stock?

Company update Government funding New contract AI-generated analysis

πŸ“‰ RGTI shares fell 32.5% to $9.85 by November 5, 2026, marking the lowest annual close and trailing peers like IonQ and D-Wave Quantum during the broader market decline.

πŸ’° Revenue grew 68.5% year-over-year to $13.4 million for the twelve months ended June 2026, driven by sales of Novera quantum computing systems.

πŸ“‰ Gross margins deteriorated sharply to 34.6% from 81.3% three years ago as the company scales production and delivery of quantum hardware.

πŸ’Έ The company reported negative free cash flow of $87.6 million over the twelve months ended June 2026 despite holding $541.3 million in cash and short-term investments.

πŸ›οΈ Rigetti will issue equity to the U.S. Department of Commerce for a finalized $100 million funding award, further expanding its diluted share count which nearly doubled to 333 million shares.

πŸš€ A significant $8.4 million order for a 108-qubit system for C-DAC in India is expected to be recognized as revenue in Q4 2026 after installation and testing.

⚠️ Operating expenses increased to $30.3 million in Q2 2026, up from $20.4 million a year earlier, reflecting higher costs associated with scaling operations.

πŸ—οΈ Management anticipates elevated capital spending in 2026 for refrigeration and fab equipment necessary to support system deliveries and manufacturing capabilities.

πŸ”„ Rigetti reorganized its leadership structure around customer deployments on August 20, 2026, which resulted in a 5% drop in share price that day.

πŸ“… The company is scheduled to report earnings again in November 2026, with operating expenses identified as a key metric for investors to monitor.

Bullish Signals
  • Revenue surged 68.5% year-over-year to $13.4 million for the twelve months ended June 2026, driven by successful sales of Novera quantum computing systems.
  • The company secured a definitive agreement for a $100 million funding award from the U.S. Department of Commerce, formalized on September 8, to support its quantum initiatives.
  • Rigetti holds a robust balance sheet with approximately $541.3 million in cash and short-term investments while operating with zero debt.
  • A major $8.4 million order for a 108-qubit system for C-DAC in India is expected to be recognized as revenue in Q4 2026, representing more than the company's entire Q2 revenue.
Risk Factors
  • Gross margins compressed significantly to 34.6% from 81.3% three years prior, indicating pressure on profitability as the company scales production.
  • The company recorded negative free cash flow of $87.6 million over the twelve months ended June 2026, highlighting a cash burn despite strong revenue growth.
  • Operating expenses rose sharply to $30.3 million in Q2 2026 from $20.4 million a year earlier, increasing the burden on the company's finances.
  • Rigetti plans to issue equity securities to the Department of Commerce for the funding award, which will further dilute existing shareholders as the share count nearly doubles.
  • Management expects capital spending in 2026 to exceed prior years due to investments in refrigeration and fab equipment, potentially impacting near-term cash flow.
Full Analysis
Shares of Rigetti Computing (RGTI) declined 32.5% to close at $9.85 by November 5, 2026, marking its lowest annual close. The stock has historically underperformed the S&P 500 and quantum peers during market sell-offs, averaging a 52.2% drop compared to a 12.1% decline for the broader index across five major downturns since March 2022. Financially, Rigetti reported revenue of $13.4 million for the twelve months ended June 2026, representing a 68.5% year-over-year increase driven by sales of its Novera quantum systems. However, gross margins compressed significantly to 34.6% from 81.3% three years prior, while the company recorded negative free cash flow of $87.6 million over the same period. The company holds approximately $541.3 million in cash and short-term investments with no debt but faces dilution risks as it prepares to issue securities to the U.S. Department of Commerce for a $100 million funding award. Operating expenses rose to $30.3 million in Q2 2026, and management anticipates higher capital spending on refrigeration and fab equipment throughout 2026. Rigetti expects to recognize revenue from an $8.4 million order for a 108-qubit system delivered to C-DAC in India during the fourth quarter of 2026. The company recently reorganized its leadership structure around customer deployments, though shares dipped 5% on that announcement, with earnings expected again in November 2026.