Rigetti Computing, Inc.

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Somewhat Bearish -25

Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) stock price forecast after a 75% ...

Financial outlook Government funding Quantum processor AI-generated analysis

📉 RGTI shares fell 10% to $10.86 on October 30, 2026, marking a loss of over 75% from the 52-week high of $44.52.

💰 The company generated $13.4 million in revenue for the twelve months ended June 2026, representing a 68.5% year-over-year growth rate.

📉 Operating losses widened to $97.2 million for the trailing twelve months ended June 2026 compared to $77.4 million the prior year.

💵 Rigetti holds approximately $394 million in cash and short-term investments against only $7.7 million in debt as of June 2026.

🤝 The US Department of Commerce agreed to provide up to $100 million in funding under the CHIPS Act for superconducting quantum computing research.

🇮🇳 Rigetti secured an $8.4 million order from India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing for a 108-qubit system expected in Q4 2026.

⚙️ The company's 108-qubit system reported two-qubit gate fidelity of approximately 99.1% using superconducting circuits.

📉 Rigetti's valuation multiple dropped from 1,292x trailing annual revenue to 286.5x sales between September 2025 and October 2026.

🚀 McKinsey estimates the global quantum computing market could reach between $43 billion and $71 billion by 2035.

⏳ The next earnings report is expected in November 2026 to provide updates on operating losses and system deliveries.

Bullish Signals
  • Rigetti generated $13.4 million in revenue over the twelve months ended June 2026, representing a 68.5% growth rate driven by Novera quantum processing unit sales.
  • The company secured an agreement with the US Department of Commerce for up to $100 million in funding under the CHIPS Act to support superconducting quantum computing research projects.
  • Rigetti holds an $8.4 million order from India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing for a 108-qubit system, which exceeds its entire second-quarter revenue.
  • The company maintains a strong balance sheet with approximately $394 million in cash and short-term investments against only $7.7 million in debt.
  • Rigetti's 108-qubit system achieved a two-qubit gate fidelity of approximately 99.1%, demonstrating technical progress in its superconducting quantum processor architecture.
Risk Factors
  • Shares have lost more than 75% of their value from the 52-week high, reflecting a sharp reversal in investor sentiment toward speculative quantum computing companies.
  • Operating losses increased to $97.2 million for the twelve months ended June 2026, compared with $77.4 million the prior year, indicating ongoing profitability challenges.
  • The valuation multiple contracted significantly from 1,292 times trailing annual revenue to 286.5 times sales, leaving the stock vulnerable to further declines despite high growth.
  • The $100 million government funding is structured over several years and does not represent an immediate cash payment, limiting near-term liquidity impact.
  • Improving computational accuracy and scaling systems remain major challenges that are critical for Rigetti to demonstrate commercially useful applications.
Full Analysis
Rigetti Computing (NASDAQ: RGTI) shares declined approximately 10% to $10.86 on October 30, 2026, extending a broader correction where the stock has lost over 75% of its value from its 52-week high. This significant price drop reflects a sharp reversal in investor sentiment toward speculative quantum computing companies, with the valuation multiple contracting from roughly 1,292 times trailing annual revenue at the end of September 2025 to 286.5 times sales by October 22, 2026. Despite the stock price decline, Rigetti has demonstrated substantial revenue growth, generating $13.4 million in revenue over the twelve months ended June 2026, a 68.5% increase driven largely by sales of its Novera quantum processing units. However, the company continues to report substantial operating losses, which rose to $97.2 million for the trailing twelve months ended June 2026 from $77.4 million the prior year, highlighting the gap between current financial performance and market expectations. Rigetti has secured significant government support, including an agreement with the US Department of Commerce for up to $100 million in funding under the CHIPS Act to advance superconducting quantum computing technology. Additionally, the company holds an $8.4 million order from India's Centre for Development of Advanced Computing for a 108-qubit system, which is expected to be recognized as revenue in Q4 2026 and exceeds its entire second-quarter revenue. The company faces challenges including improving computational accuracy, scaling its systems, and demonstrating commercially useful applications to capture market share in an industry projected to reach between $43 billion and $71 billion by 2035. With a cash position of approximately $394 million against minimal debt, Rigetti remains a high-risk investment vulnerable to further declines due to elevated valuation metrics relative to current earnings.