Rigetti Computing, Inc.

(NASDAQ Capital Market)
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Somewhat Bearish -35

Why Is Rigetti Computing Stock Falling? - Trefis

Company update Government funding Product launch AI-generated analysis

📉 Rigetti Computing stock fell 68.2% year-to-date through October 22, 2026, as investors reduced its price-to-sales multiple from 1,292x to 286.5x.

💰 Revenue for the twelve months ended June 2026 rose 68.5% to $13.4 million, driven by on-premises Novera QPU sales.

📅 The company delayed the general availability of its Cepheus-1-108Q system and missed fourth-quarter 2025 revenue expectations of $2.37 million.

🤝 Rigetti secured a definitive agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce for up to $100 million in funding over three years.

🇮🇳 The company holds an $8.4 million order from India's C-DAC for a 108-qubit system expected in Q4 2026.

⚠️ Operating losses widened to $97.2 million for the twelve months ended June 2026 despite growing revenue.

📈 Diluted share count increased to 333 million, up from 298 million a year earlier.

💵 Rigetti holds $394 million in cash and short-term investments against only $7.7 million of debt.

Bullish Signals
  • Revenue grew 68.5% year-over-year to $13.4 million for the twelve months ended June 2026, driven by on-premises Novera QPU sales.
  • The company secured a definitive agreement with the U.S. Department of Commerce for up to $100 million in funding over three years.
  • Rigetti holds an $8.4 million order from India's C-DAC for a 108-qubit system, which is larger than its entire second-quarter revenue.
  • The company maintains a strong balance sheet with $394 million in cash and short-term investments against only $7.7 million of debt.
Risk Factors
  • Operating losses widened to $97.2 million for the twelve months ended June 2026, increasing from $77.4 million the prior year.
  • The company delayed the general availability of its Cepheus-1-108Q system and missed fourth-quarter 2025 revenue expectations.
  • Rigetti's stock price fell 68.2% year-to-date, dropping its valuation multiple significantly despite revenue growth.
  • Future government deals are expected to include issuing additional securities, which will increase the company's share count.
Full Analysis
Rigetti Computing (RGTI) stock fell 68.2% year-to-date through October 22, 2026, dropping its price-to-sales multiple from 1,292x to 286.5x despite a 68.5% revenue increase to $13.4 million for the twelve months ended June 2026. The decline reflects a market repricing of the company's valuation rather than a contraction in sales, as investors reduced their willingness to pay for each dollar of revenue generated. The company reported mixed operational results over the past year, including a delay in the general availability of its Cepheus-1-108Q system and a fourth-quarter 2025 revenue miss that initially pushed shares lower. However, Rigetti secured significant government backing with a definitive agreement to receive up to $100 million in funding from the U.S. Department of Commerce over three years, alongside an $8.4 million order for a 108-qubit system in India. Despite revenue growth driven by on-premises Novera QPU sales, Rigetti's financial losses widened to $97.2 million for the twelve months ended June 2026, compared to $77.4 million the prior year. The company holds $394 million in cash and short-term investments against minimal debt, but its share count has expanded to 333 million diluted shares, with future government deals expected to include additional securities issuance.