Rigetti Computing, Inc.

(NASDAQ Capital Market)
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Somewhat Bearish -35

Which Quantum Computing Stock Has Dominated in 2026: IonQ, Rigetti, or D-Wave?

Quantum networking AI-generated analysis

πŸ“‰ Rigetti shares are trading near $19.90, up 9% on the day but down 10% year to date as the company lags its pure-play quantum peers.

πŸ’° Rigetti reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.868 million, missing consensus by 22%, while full-year revenue declined 34% to $7.088 million from 2024 levels.

🏦 The company holds $589.83 million in cash and investments, providing sufficient runway despite the lack of commercial traction and lumpy order patterns.

πŸš€ CEO Subodh Kulkarni anticipates significant first-quarter year-over-year revenue growth from Novera shipments to improve the bottom line.

πŸ›οΈ There is a 39% probability on Polymarket that the U.S. federal government will take a stake in Rigetti, the highest among the three major quantum names.

βš–οΈ Rigetti is identified as a superconducting qubit specialist that has underperformed relative to IonQ and D-Wave in terms of year-to-date shareholder returns.

Bullish Signals
  • Rigetti holds $589.83 million in cash and investments, providing substantial operational runway despite current revenue misses.
  • CEO Subodh Kulkarni anticipates significant first-quarter year-over-year revenue growth from upcoming Novera shipments.
Risk Factors
  • Rigetti reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.868 million, missing consensus by 22% and failing to meet market expectations.
  • The company's full-year revenue declined 34% to $7.088 million compared to 2024 levels, indicating a contraction in business scale.
  • Rigetti has lagged on commercial traction, resulting in a negative year-to-date return of 10% while peers rally.
Full Analysis
Quantum computing stocks rallied broadly in midday trading on May 6, 2026, reigniting a debate over which pure-play names have delivered for shareholders in 2026. While the sector-wide surge was sentiment-driven, year-to-date performance data reveals a clear divergence between IonQ and its peers, Rigetti Computing (RGTI) and D-Wave Quantum. Rigetti shares were up 9% intraday but remain down 10% for the year, lagging significantly behind IonQ, which is the only pure-play quantum stock with a positive year-to-date return. Fundamentally, Rigetti reported Q4 2025 revenue of $1.868 million, missing consensus by 22%, while its full-year revenue declined 34% to $7.088 million compared to 2024 levels. Despite these misses, the company holds $589.83 million in cash and investments, providing operational runway. CEO Subodh Kulkarni anticipates significant first-quarter year-over-year revenue growth from Novera shipments, though the lumpy order pattern continues to weigh on market sentiment regarding the company's commercial traction. The article contrasts Rigetti's struggles with IonQ's dominance, noting that IonQ posted Q4 2025 revenue of $61.89 million and became the first public quantum company to exceed $100 million in GAAP revenue. Rigetti is characterized as a superconducting qubit specialist that has lagged on commercial traction despite holding substantial cash reserves and facing a potential U.S. federal government stake, which carries a 39% probability on Polymarket.