QUALCOMM Incorporated

(NASDAQ Global Select)
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Slightly Bullish +25

Qualcomm Stock Jumps 11% – Here’s Why It’s Still Down 13% in 2026

AI-generated analysis

📈 Qualcomm shares jumped roughly 11% to near $148.28 on Friday, driven by a sector-wide rally after Intel's strong Q1 2026 earnings.

📉 Despite the bounce, the stock is still down approximately 13% year-to-date compared to a 21% decline through Thursday.

💰 Q1 FY26 revenue rose 5% YoY to $12.25 billion, but operating income fell 5% and net income slipped 6%.

🚗 Automotive revenue hit $1.1 billion in Q1 FY26, marking the second consecutive quarter above the $1 billion mark.

📱 IoT revenue increased to $1.69 billion as the company diversifies beyond its traditional handset silicon business.

⚠️ The company faces a direct threat from Apple rolling out its own C1 modem in the upcoming iPhone 16e.

🇨🇳 A softening China smartphone market and competition from MediaTek are squeezing Qualcomm's low-end segment.

💻 The Snapdragon X Elite PC narrative has materialized more slowly than bulls had initially hoped.

📅 Q2 FY26 earnings are scheduled for next Wednesday, April 29, with a consensus EPS target of $2.55.

🎯 Polymarket traders currently price a 93% probability that Qualcomm will beat the consensus EPS target next week.

🔭 The stock has moved back above its 50-day moving average of $134.53 and is approaching analyst targets near $150.10.

📉 Forward P/E ratio stands at 12x, indicating the market is already discounting potential future trouble.

Bullish Signals
  • Qualcomm shares surged 11% to near $148.28, driven by a sector-wide rally and short covering that lifted the stock above its 50-day moving average.
  • Automotive revenue reached $1.1 billion in Q1 FY26, representing a 15% year-over-year increase and the second consecutive quarter exceeding $1 billion.
  • IoT revenue grew to $1.69 billion, demonstrating successful diversification beyond the handset market.
  • The completed Alphawave Semi acquisition is expanding Qualcomm's footprint into data center silicon.
  • Polymarket traders are pricing a 93% probability of a consensus beat on the upcoming Q2 FY26 earnings report.
Risk Factors
  • Qualcomm reported a decline in operating income of 5% and net income of 6% despite a 5% rise in revenue for Q1 FY26.
  • Management issued Q2 FY26 revenue guidance of $10.2B to $11B, explicitly citing industry-wide memory supply constraints that are pressuring handset demand.
  • Apple is rolling out its own C1 modem in the iPhone 16e, creating a direct threat to Qualcomm's largest customer relationship.
  • The China smartphone market remains soft, and competition from MediaTek is squeezing Qualcomm's low-end segment.
  • Qualcomm faces a known Apple revenue cliff as the company transitions away from being the sole modem supplier for iPhones.
Full Analysis
Qualcomm shares surged approximately 11% in Friday midday trading to near $148.28, driven by a sector-wide rally following Intel's blowout Q1 2026 earnings and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index crossing 10,000. Despite this sharp one-day rebound, Qualcomm stock remains down roughly 13% year-to-date, having previously fallen 21% through Thursday's close. The move is attributed to short covering and renewed optimism that legacy silicon retains a seat at the AI table. Qualcomm reported Q1 FY26 revenue of $12.25 billion, a 5% increase year-over-year, though operating income fell 5% and net income slipped 6%. Management provided Q2 FY26 revenue guidance between $10.2 billion and $11 billion, citing industry-wide memory supply constraints that are pressuring handset demand. The company faces specific headwinds including Apple's rollout of its own C1 modem in the iPhone 16e, a softening China smartphone market, and slower-than-hoped adoption of Snapdragon X Elite PCs. The bull case for Qualcomm relies on diversification beyond handsets, with automotive revenue reaching $1.1 billion in Q1 FY26 (up 15% YoY) and IoT revenue rising to $1.69 billion. The completed Alphawave Semi acquisition is positioning the company for data center silicon entry. Conversely, the bear case highlights a known Apple revenue cliff, margin compression, and a slow monetization curve for AI features. CEO Cristiano Amon stated the company remains on track to achieve its fiscal 2029 revenue goals. Investors are watching Qualcomm's Q2 FY26 earnings report scheduled for next Wednesday, April 29, with Polymarket traders pricing a 93% probability of a consensus beat on the $2.55 non-GAAP EPS target. A clean print with stabilizing handset commentary could validate today's bounce, while a guidance cut or sharper weakness in China could quickly unwind the rally. The stock is currently trading above its 50-day moving average and within reach of analyst price targets.