Palantir Technologies Inc.

(NASDAQ Global Select)
Bullish +65

Palantir Trades at 150 Times, Josh Brown Says. Mondayโ€™s Guidance Has to Do More Than Beat

๐Ÿ“… Palantir reports third-quarter results after market close on Monday, Nov. 2, with Wall Street expecting a revenue beat and guidance raise.

๐Ÿ“ˆ The stock trades at a forward P/E of 103x, up from 74x in June, while next year's EPS consensus has risen 13%.

๐Ÿ’ฐ J.P. Morgan initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $262 price target for December 2027.

๐Ÿš€ U.S. commercial revenue grew 149% in the second quarter to $764 million, indicating strong momentum in the private sector.

๐Ÿค Total remaining deal value increased 83% to $13.1 billion in the second quarter, reflecting expanding customer commitments.

๐Ÿ“‰ Analysts expect consensus 2026 revenue of $8.22 billion, which is already above Palantir's current guidance range.

๐ŸŽฏ The fourth-quarter guide must exceed roughly $2.4 billion to lift 2027 estimates and support the high valuation multiple.

๐Ÿ“Š Palantir has a track record of beating guidance by significant margins, with Q4 2025 beat expected at $76 million.

๐Ÿ”ฎ Normalized EPS is projected at $1.61 for this year and $2.35 for 2027, representing substantial growth.

โš ๏ธ A token guidance raise may fail to move the stock given the high forward multiple of 103x.

Bullish Signals
  • Palantir is expected to beat its own Q3 guidance by a significant margin, having historically exceeded estimates by $76 million in Q4 2025.
  • U.S. commercial revenue surged 149% year-over-year in the second quarter to $764 million, demonstrating strong growth in the private sector.
  • Total remaining deal value grew 83% to $13.1 billion in Q2, indicating a robust pipeline of future revenue opportunities.
  • J.P. Morgan initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $262 price target for December 2027, signaling strong institutional confidence.
  • The company has a consistent track record of beating guidance, with Q1 and Q2 beats of $97 million and $134 million respectively in 2025.
Risk Factors
  • The forward P/E multiple of 103x is high, requiring substantial growth in 2027 estimates to justify the current valuation.
  • Growth rates in total remaining deal value have slowed to 83% from 105% at the end of 2025, potentially raising concerns about deceleration.
Full Analysis
Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is preparing to report third-quarter results on Monday, Nov. 2, with Wall Street expecting another revenue beat and a routine guidance raise. Analysts from Oppenheimer and J.P. Morgan have increased their bullish stance, with J.P. Morgan initiating coverage at Overweight and setting a $262 price target for December 2027. The stock currently trades at a forward P/E of 103x, having climbed significantly since June despite rising earnings estimates. Market consensus for 2026 revenue already exceeds the top of Palantir's own guidance range, suggesting that management will need to provide a substantial fourth-quarter guide well above $2.4 billion to meaningfully lift 2027 estimates and justify the high valuation multiple. Key metrics driving investor sentiment include U.S. commercial revenue growth, which surged 149% in the second quarter, and total remaining deal value, which increased 83% to $13.1 billion. While Palantir has a history of beating guidance by large margins, analysts emphasize that future stock performance will depend on whether the company can accelerate growth rates in commercial segments and expand its remaining deal value pipeline faster than revenue. Analysts project normalized EPS of $2.35 for 2027, representing about 50% year-over-year growth. However, the market is pricing in significant expansion, and a mere token raise may fail to move the stock given the high multiple. The upcoming earnings report will be critical for validating whether Palantir can sustain its rapid growth trajectory and deliver on the transformative ROI it claims to provide customers.