Palantir Trades at 150 Times, Josh Brown Says. Mondayโs Guidance Has to Do More Than Beat
๐ Palantir reports third-quarter results after market close on Monday, Nov. 2, with Wall Street expecting a revenue beat and guidance raise.
๐ The stock trades at a forward P/E of 103x, up from 74x in June, while next year's EPS consensus has risen 13%.
๐ฐ J.P. Morgan initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $262 price target for December 2027.
๐ U.S. commercial revenue grew 149% in the second quarter to $764 million, indicating strong momentum in the private sector.
๐ค Total remaining deal value increased 83% to $13.1 billion in the second quarter, reflecting expanding customer commitments.
๐ Analysts expect consensus 2026 revenue of $8.22 billion, which is already above Palantir's current guidance range.
๐ฏ The fourth-quarter guide must exceed roughly $2.4 billion to lift 2027 estimates and support the high valuation multiple.
๐ Palantir has a track record of beating guidance by significant margins, with Q4 2025 beat expected at $76 million.
๐ฎ Normalized EPS is projected at $1.61 for this year and $2.35 for 2027, representing substantial growth.
โ ๏ธ A token guidance raise may fail to move the stock given the high forward multiple of 103x.
- Palantir is expected to beat its own Q3 guidance by a significant margin, having historically exceeded estimates by $76 million in Q4 2025.
- U.S. commercial revenue surged 149% year-over-year in the second quarter to $764 million, demonstrating strong growth in the private sector.
- Total remaining deal value grew 83% to $13.1 billion in Q2, indicating a robust pipeline of future revenue opportunities.
- J.P. Morgan initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and a $262 price target for December 2027, signaling strong institutional confidence.
- The company has a consistent track record of beating guidance, with Q1 and Q2 beats of $97 million and $134 million respectively in 2025.
- The forward P/E multiple of 103x is high, requiring substantial growth in 2027 estimates to justify the current valuation.
- Growth rates in total remaining deal value have slowed to 83% from 105% at the end of 2025, potentially raising concerns about deceleration.