Nvidia Stock Is 10% Below Its Record. Does Anthropic's IPO Filing Make It a Buy?
π Anthropic's IPO filing shows up to $206 billion in rental commitments, but most covers existing capacity or infrastructure costs rather than direct Nvidia chip orders.
π Anthropic is steering a significant portion of its computing spend toward Google, Broadcom, Microsoft, and Amazon, reducing the relative share flowing to Nvidia.
π° Nvidia's data center revenue reached $89.0 billion in Q2 fiscal 2027, adding roughly $13 billion per quarter compared to the previous year.
π Nvidia stock trades at about 14 times expected earnings for fiscal 2028, a valuation that may already assume sharp growth slowing.
βοΈ The author concludes that while multiple frontier labs are scaling in parallel, the Anthropic filing alone does not make Nvidia stock a compelling buy at $216.
ποΈ SpaceXAI deals cover capacity with over 220,000 Nvidia GPUs, but these contracts include exit clauses after early 2027 lock-in periods.
π€ Anthropic has committed at least $44.9 billion to Microsoft and around $114.5 billion to Google, with the latter including massive TPU-based hardware leases.
π Nvidia shares were up about 2% on Monday, trading around $216, which is still roughly 10% below its October record close.
- Nvidia's data center business revenue surged to $89.0 billion in Q2 fiscal 2027, representing over twice the year-ago total and adding roughly $13 billion per quarter.
- CEO Jensen Huang noted a strategic shift where 'multiple frontier labs' are now scaling in parallel compared to just one lab driving buildouts last year.
- The $206 billion figure from Anthropic's filing overstates direct revenue potential because it includes rental contracts for existing infrastructure and provider profits rather than pure chip sales.
- Competitors like Google, Broadcom, Microsoft, and Amazon are capturing a growing share of Anthropic's computing commitments, with non-cancelable deals to rivals exceeding $276 billion combined.