NVIDIA Corporation

(NASDAQ Global Select)
Neutral +10

Nvidia Stock Is 10% Below Its Record. Does Anthropic's IPO Filing Make It a Buy?

πŸ“Š Anthropic's IPO filing shows up to $206 billion in rental commitments, but most covers existing capacity or infrastructure costs rather than direct Nvidia chip orders.

πŸ”„ Anthropic is steering a significant portion of its computing spend toward Google, Broadcom, Microsoft, and Amazon, reducing the relative share flowing to Nvidia.

πŸ’° Nvidia's data center revenue reached $89.0 billion in Q2 fiscal 2027, adding roughly $13 billion per quarter compared to the previous year.

πŸ“‰ Nvidia stock trades at about 14 times expected earnings for fiscal 2028, a valuation that may already assume sharp growth slowing.

βš–οΈ The author concludes that while multiple frontier labs are scaling in parallel, the Anthropic filing alone does not make Nvidia stock a compelling buy at $216.

πŸ—οΈ SpaceXAI deals cover capacity with over 220,000 Nvidia GPUs, but these contracts include exit clauses after early 2027 lock-in periods.

🀝 Anthropic has committed at least $44.9 billion to Microsoft and around $114.5 billion to Google, with the latter including massive TPU-based hardware leases.

πŸ“ˆ Nvidia shares were up about 2% on Monday, trading around $216, which is still roughly 10% below its October record close.

Bullish Signals
  • Nvidia's data center business revenue surged to $89.0 billion in Q2 fiscal 2027, representing over twice the year-ago total and adding roughly $13 billion per quarter.
  • CEO Jensen Huang noted a strategic shift where 'multiple frontier labs' are now scaling in parallel compared to just one lab driving buildouts last year.
Risk Factors
  • The $206 billion figure from Anthropic's filing overstates direct revenue potential because it includes rental contracts for existing infrastructure and provider profits rather than pure chip sales.
  • Competitors like Google, Broadcom, Microsoft, and Amazon are capturing a growing share of Anthropic's computing commitments, with non-cancelable deals to rivals exceeding $276 billion combined.
Full Analysis
Anthropic's recent IPO filing reveals significant commitments to rent computing power, with deals totaling up to $206 billion across providers including SpaceXAI, Nscale, and Lambda. However, the article clarifies that these figures represent rental contracts for existing or near-future capacity rather than direct chip orders, meaning Nvidia's actual revenue share is likely much smaller as rents cover infrastructure, power, and provider profits. The filing highlights a strategic shift where Anthropic is directing a substantial portion of its computing spend toward competitors like Google, Broadcom, Microsoft, and Amazon. While the SpaceXAI deal involves over 220,000 Nvidia GPUs, the non-cancelable commitments to rival chips are significantly larger, suggesting that Google's Tensor Processing Units (TPUs) and other architectures are winning a growing share of Anthropic's total computing budget. Nvidia's data center business continues to show robust growth with quarterly revenue exceeding $89 billion in Q2 fiscal 2027, adding roughly $13 billion per quarter. Despite this strong performance, the stock trades at approximately 14 times expected earnings for fiscal 2028, a valuation that arguably already assumes significant growth deceleration. The author concludes that while Nvidia's growth is diversified across multiple frontier labs, the Anthropic filing does not materially strengthen the case for buying the stock at current prices. The article notes that investors are not pricing in aggressive future growth given the current valuation metrics. While CEO Jensen Huang points to a shift from single-lab drivers to parallel scaling by multiple frontier labs, the specific details of Anthropic's spending distribution suggest that Nvidia faces increased competition for AI workload share without a corresponding immediate boost in revenue visibility from this specific filing.