Nebius Group N.V.

(NASDAQ Global Select)
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Bearish -65

Nebius Tumbles 14% on Soft Guidance and Bigger Spending Plans; CoreWeave Sinks 10%, IREN Drops 7%

Capital raising Guidance lowered AI-generated analysis

πŸ“‰ Nebius shares dropped 14% to $133.67 after reporting Q3 2026 revenue of $980.8 million, which beat consensus estimates but was overshadowed by weaker forward guidance.

πŸ’° The company increased its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $27 billion and plans $40-45 billion in spending for 2027 against a conservative revenue outlook of $12-13 billion.

πŸ—£οΈ CEO Arkady Volozh characterized the 2027 revenue guidance as a conservative approach, yet the market remains concerned about the high capital budget relative to projected returns.

🌍 Nebius operates a full-stack AI cloud business with data centers in Europe, the U.S., and the Middle East, utilizing an asset-light model where partners finance construction.

⚠️ The stock decline was exacerbated by reports that NVIDIA's board is preparing to oust CEO Jensen Huang, impacting investor confidence in the neocloud sector.

πŸ“Š Nebius holds approximately $329 million in NVIDIA shares as of June, highlighting its significant exposure to the chipmaker's strategic direction and leadership stability.

Bullish Signals
  • Nebius reported Q3 2026 revenue of $980.8 million, surpassing the LSEG consensus estimate of $907.5 million with sales rising 571% year-over-year.
  • The company maintains a full-stack AI cloud platform operating data centers across Europe, the U.S., and the Middle East, selling both compute and software solutions.
Risk Factors
  • The company raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $27 billion from a prior range of $20-25 billion, signaling aggressive spending that may strain margins.
  • The stock price fell 14% following the earnings release as investors reacted negatively to the combination of soft guidance and heavier investment plans.
Full Analysis
Nebius Group (NASDAQ:NBIS) shares plunged 14% following the release of Q3 2026 earnings that revealed a softer-than-expected revenue guidance for 2026 and a significant increase in capital expenditure plans. While the company reported Q3 revenue of $980.8 million, exceeding analyst estimates, the market reacted negatively to the updated outlook which pairs low-end 2026 revenue expectations with a massive spending ramp-up. The company raised its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $27 billion from a prior range of $20-25 billion, and projects 2027 capex between $40 billion and $45 billion against an initial revenue outlook of only $12 billion to $13 billion. CEO Arkady Volozh described the revenue projection as a conservative approach to the build-out pace, but investors are questioning the return on investment for such heavy spending relative to projected earnings. The selloff was further amplified by external volatility regarding NVIDIA's leadership stability and broader sector concerns. Nebius operates a full-stack AI cloud model across Europe, the U.S., and the Middle East, utilizing an asset-light approach where partners finance facilities while Nebius provides the platform and demand. The stock currently trades at $133.67, reflecting immediate market skepticism about the sustainability of its current capital allocation strategy.