Nebius Group N.V.

(NASDAQ Global Select)
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Somewhat Bearish -45

Top Investor: CoreWeave Locked In Compute "Way, Way Under Market ...

Capital raising Debt refinancing Financial outlook AI-generated analysis

πŸ“‰ CoreWeave stock fell from a peak of $59.57 to $54.87 by October 30 despite the company bringing new data center capacity online in Denmark.

πŸ’° Total debt for CoreWeave, including lease liabilities, surged to $51.6 billion by June 30, significantly increasing its financial leverage.

πŸ“‰ Gross margins declined from a peak of 74.3% in 2024 to 71.7% in 2025 as the cost of revenue increased relative to total revenue.

πŸ“ Management guided for third-quarter interest expenses between $860 million and $940 million against adjusted operating income of only $200 million to $260 million.

πŸ“‰ Analyst consensus estimates predict a normalized loss of $3.99 per share in 2026 and $1.97 per share in 2027 for CoreWeave.

πŸ”’ Approximately 98% of CoreWeave's 2025 revenue is committed to long-term contracts that were signed at prices below current market rates.

πŸ“ˆ CoreWeave raised GPU prices by about 25% in July, but this impact is limited as most capacity is already under fixed-price agreements.

🏦 Unsecured bond yields for CoreWeave reached close to 15% in October, making new debt financing prohibitively expensive according to investors.

πŸ“… The third-quarter earnings report scheduled for November 10 will reveal the extent of CoreWeave's interest expense burden versus operating income.

Bullish Signals
  • CoreWeave raised prices by approximately 25% across its GPU lineup in July, indicating some pricing power.
  • CoreWeave secured an $8.5 billion loan from Meta-backed financing at a favorable fixed rate of about 5.9%.
Risk Factors
  • CoreWeave's total debt including leases reached $51.6 billion by June 30, creating significant refinancing risk.
  • Unsecured bond yields for CoreWeave climbed to close to 15% in October, drastically increasing interest costs.
  • Management guided for third-quarter interest expenses of $860 million to $940 million against only $200 million to $260 million in adjusted operating income.
  • Analysts project a normalized loss of $3.99 per share in 2026 and $1.97 per share in 2027 for CoreWeave.
Full Analysis
CoreWeave (CRWV) recently experienced a stock price decline after bringing new capacity online in Denmark, with shares falling from a peak of $59.57 to $54.87 by October 30. Despite a broader market trend where GPU rental prices have risen daily, CoreWeave's financial performance has been constrained by its heavy reliance on long-term contracts signed at lower rates before the current market surge. The company faces significant financial pressure due to high debt levels and rising interest costs. Total debt, including lease liabilities, reached $51.6 billion by June 30, with unsecured bond yields approaching 15% in October. Management guidance for the third quarter projects interest expenses between $860 million and $940 million against adjusted operating income of only $200 million to $260 million. Analyst consensus estimates indicate that CoreWeave will continue to report normalized losses through 2027, with a projected loss of $3.99 per share in 2026 and $1.97 per share in 2027. While the company has raised GPU prices by approximately 25% and secured some favorable financing from Meta, its ability to capitalize on higher market rents is limited by the vast majority of its revenue being locked into older, cheaper contracts. The upcoming third-quarter report scheduled for November 10 will be a critical test for CoreWeave's financial health. Investors are closely watching whether the company can manage its massive interest bill and if any capacity renewals will occur at current high market prices to improve margins.