Moderna, Inc.

(NASDAQ Global Select)
Back to all articles
Bullish +75

Moderna (MRNA) Soars 175% in Q3: Can The Stock Keep Running?

Clinical trial results Company update Drug approval AI-generated analysis

πŸ“ˆ Moderna stock surged 174.98% in Q3, ranking as the second top-performing US stock driven by positive cancer trial data.

πŸ”¬ The combined therapy of Moderna's INT and Merck's Keytruda successfully met primary and secondary endpoints for recurrence-free survival in a late-stage clinical trial.

🩺 This marks the first phase 3 readout demonstrating clinically meaningful improvement over Keytruda alone for treating melanoma.

πŸ’° The success points to significant revenue growth prospects for both Moderna and Merck due to the therapy's huge addressable market.

πŸ“… Moderna is set to join the Nasdaq 100 index on Friday, October 9, 2026, triggering anticipated portfolio rebalancing by institutional investors.

πŸ’‰ The FDA approved updated formulas for Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE vaccines in August, expanding eligibility to younger children and high-risk adults.

πŸ“Š Melanoma cases are expected to increase by 112,000 by the end of the year, reinforcing the materiality of the new cancer therapy.

🀝 The clinical trial combines Moderna's mRNA technology with Merck's Keytruda, creating a strategic partnership opportunity for both firms.

Bullish Signals
  • Moderna stock jumped 174.98% in three months ending September, driven by the successful primary and secondary endpoints of its combined cancer therapy trial.
  • The company achieved the first positive phase 3 readout for an mRNA-based cancer treatment combined with individualized neoantigen therapy, showing improvement over Keytruda alone.
  • Moderna received FDA approval in August for updated Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE vaccine formulas, expanding eligibility to individuals aged 6 months and high-risk adults.
  • The company is set to join the Nasdaq 100 index on October 9, 2026, which is expected to drive further stock price appreciation as institutional funds rebalance portfolios.
Risk Factors
  • Some analysts and newsletter writers suggest that AI stocks may hold greater promise for delivering higher returns within a shorter time frame compared to Moderna.
  • The article notes that Moderna is heavily shorted, implying there are still significant bearish views or risks regarding the stock's valuation despite recent gains.
Full Analysis
Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA) experienced a dramatic 175% surge in its stock price during the third quarter, driven primarily by a landmark late-stage clinical trial success for its combined therapy candidate targeting melanoma. The study demonstrated that combining Moderna's mRNA-based cancer treatment with Merck's Keytruda achieved primary and secondary endpoints for recurrence-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival, marking the first positive readout of its kind in phase 3 trials. The results indicate a clinically meaningful improvement over Keytruda alone, opening significant revenue growth prospects for both companies given the large addressable market for melanoma. Melanoma cases are projected to increase by 112,000 by year-end, and Moderna is also set to join the Nasdaq 100 index on October 9, 2026, following FDA approval of updated Spikevax and mNEXSPIKE vaccine formulas for broader age groups. The article highlights that while Moderna's stock has rallied heavily, some analysts suggest AI stocks may offer higher returns. However, the core bullish case for MRNA rests on the transformative potential of its cancer therapy data and the upcoming index inclusion which is expected to drive further institutional inflows as funds rebalance portfolios ahead of the shift.