Moderna, Inc.

(NASDAQ Global Select)
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Bullish +75

Was The Run In Moderna Stock Hiding In Plain Sight?

Clinical trial results Company update Drug approval AI-generated analysis

πŸ“ˆ Moderna stock returned 677.7% over the twelve months ending October 27, 2026, vastly outperforming the S&P 500's 15.0% gain.

πŸ’‰ The FDA approved Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine for ages 50+ in August 2026, marking the first approval of an mRNA flu shot.

πŸ“Š mNEXSPIKE captured approximately 24% of the U.S. retail COVID vaccine market in its first season.

πŸ’° Moderna's core COVID business generated 94.2% of revenue in fiscal 2025 but declined 41.3% year-over-year.

πŸ“‰ Revenue for the quarter ended June 30, 2026, rose to $143 million, a 4.4% increase from the prior year.

πŸš€ Management projects up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 driven by international partnerships and mNEXSPIKE expansion.

⏳ The upcoming launch of mCOMBRIAX in 2027 is currently excluded from 2026 revenue guidance.

πŸ“‰ Moderna shares fell 17.6% on October 22, 2026, following a leak regarding data from its melanoma vaccine trial.

Bullish Signals
  • Moderna stock surged 677.7% over the trailing twelve months ending October 27, 2026, significantly outperforming the S&P 500.
  • The FDA granted approval for Moderna's mRNA flu vaccine for adults aged 50 and older in August 2026.
  • mNEXSPIKE achieved a 24% market share in the U.S. retail COVID vaccine market during its first season.
  • Revenue grew to $143 million in the quarter ended June 30, 2026, representing a 4.4% year-over-year increase.
  • Management forecasts revenue growth of up to 10% for 2026 supported by strategic partnerships and mNEXSPIKE growth.
Risk Factors
  • The core COVID business, which comprised 94.2% of fiscal 2025 revenue, declined 41.3% year-over-year.
  • Moderna ended work on its CMV vaccine on October 22, 2025, after the candidate failed a late-stage clinical trial.
Full Analysis
Moderna (MRNA) stock delivered a massive 677.7% return over the twelve months ending October 27, 2026, significantly outperforming the S&P 500. This surge was driven by the successful market adoption of its next-generation COVID vaccine, mNEXSPIKE, which captured approximately 24% of the U.S. retail COVID vaccine market in its first season, and the FDA's approval of its mRNA flu vaccine for adults aged 50 and older in August 2026. Despite these successes, Moderna's overall revenue continued to face headwinds from its core business. The company's COVID business, which accounted for 94.2% of fiscal 2025 revenue, saw a decline of 41.3% year-over-year. While mNEXSPIKE gained share, it was not enough to fully offset the broader contraction in the primary revenue stream during this period. Looking ahead, Moderna expects revenue growth of up to 10% in 2026, supported by strategic partnerships in the UK, Canada, and Australia, as well as continued mNEXSPIKE expansion. However, this guidance explicitly excludes expected revenue from mCOMBRIAX, a combined flu and COVID shot scheduled for launch in 2027. The company is poised to report its next quarterly results in November 2026.