Iris Energy Limited

(NASDAQ Global Select)
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Very Bullish +85

JPMorgan sees IREN revenue rocketing 20x by 2030, lifts target 41%

AI infrastructure Analyst upgrade Financial outlook AI-generated analysis

πŸ“ˆ JPMorgan upgrades IREN from 'Underweight' to 'Overweight', raising the price target to $65 from $46.

πŸ’° Revenue is forecast to balloon roughly 20-fold by 2030, reaching $23.7bn by FY30 with margins near 65%.

πŸ”‹ Capacity expansion accelerates rapidly, with live IT capacity expected to reach 400MW by the end of 2026.

🀝 Contract book is anchored by a five-year, $9.7bn agreement with Microsoft and a $3.4bn deal with Nvidia.

πŸ’΅ Pricing power strengthens as neocloud contract rates rise from $10-15 per watt to $15-20 per watt and beyond.

πŸš€ Management is reportedly discussing future capacity terms closer to $25 per watt, potentially making JPMorgan's assumptions conservative.

⏳ GPU lifespan may exceed the typical five-to-six-year assumption, materially improving profitability by reducing depreciation costs.

πŸ“Š FY28 adjusted EBITDA is projected to climb to $6.8bn from $3.4bn as the business scales.

Bullish Signals
  • JPMorgan upgrades IREN to 'Overweight' and lifts the price target to $65, implying around 46% upside from the current share price.
  • The bank forecasts FY28 revenue doubling to $10.3bn and adjusted EBITDA climbing to $6.8bn as demand for compute capacity outstrips supply.
  • IREN has secured a five-year, $9.7bn agreement with Microsoft and a $3.4bn deal with Nvidia, anchoring its growth thesis.
  • Live IT capacity is expected to grow from 40MW in June to approximately 400MW by the end of 2026, supporting roughly $4bn of ARR.
  • Pricing dynamics are highly favorable with contract rates moving from $10-15 per watt to $15-20 per watt and beyond.
  • Management is discussing future capacity terms closer to $25 per watt, suggesting JPMorgan's base-case assumptions may be conservative.
  • Evidence suggests GPUs may last longer than the typical five-to-six-year lifespan, which could materially improve profitability by reducing depreciation costs.
Full Analysis
JPMorgan has upgraded its rating on IREN (LSE: IREN) from 'Underweight' to 'Overweight', lifting its price target to $65 from $46, citing a transformation into a top-tier 'neocloud' provider. The bank forecasts IREN's revenue could balloon roughly 20-fold by 2030 as demand for high-powered computing capacity significantly outstrips supply, driving a massive re-rating of the stock. The upgrade is anchored by IREN's robust contract book and aggressive capacity expansion plans. JPMorgan models FY28 revenue doubling to $10.3bn from $4.8bn, with adjusted EBITDA climbing to $6.8bn. By FY30, revenue is projected to reach $23.7bn and EBITDA to hit $15.4bn, maintaining margins near 65%. The bank expects IREN's live IT capacity to grow from 40MW in June to approximately 400MW by the end of 2026. Pricing dynamics are central to JPMorgan's bullish thesis, with contract rates moving from $10-15 per watt to $15-20 per watt and beyond. IREN holds a five-year, $9.7bn agreement with Microsoft and a $3.4bn deal with Nvidia, alongside customers like Perplexity and Cohere. The bank notes that management is discussing terms closer to $25 per watt for future capacity, suggesting JPMorgan's base-case assumptions may be conservative. JPMorgan highlights meaningful sensitivity in its projections regarding capacity signing and GPU lifespans. Signing 450MW of unsigned 2027 capacity at $15 per watt would generate $6.75bn in annual revenue, but value increases significantly at higher pricing tiers. Additionally, evidence suggests GPUs may last longer than the typical five-to-six-year lifespan assumed, which could materially improve profitability by reducing depreciation costs relative to revenue.