IonQ, Inc.

🇺🇸New York Stock Exchange
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IonQ, Inc. stock analysis IONQ overview
Bearish -65

IONQ Fair Value 2026 — IonQ, Inc. 13 Models | CirclFi

📉 IonQ trades at $56.55, significantly above CirclFi's composite fair value estimate of $17.24.

📊 11 out of 12 active valuation models suggest downside risk, with an average implied decline of -67.5%.

🏆 The company ranks #42 out of 46 peers in the Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design sector for quality.

📉 CirclFi's QOC score is 3.8/10, indicating mixed fundamental signals and notable weaknesses across 32 evaluated metrics.

⚠️ The Value Trap algorithm assigns a score of 18/100 (SAFE), suggesting minimal risk of fundamental deterioration.

📈 Model dispersion is extreme, ranging from $60.09 (PWERM) to $2.16 (Dynamic NAV), highlighting valuation uncertainty.

🔍 Valuation data is derived from 700+ SEC EDGAR XBRL filings and calibrated with macroeconomic context.

📉 Average model confidence stands at 34%, potentially reflecting limited history or high volatility in the sector.

Bullish Signals
  • The Value Trap algorithm assigns a 'SAFE' rating (18/100), indicating minimal risk of fundamental deterioration despite current price levels.
  • Broad coverage with 12 active models provides high confidence in the valuation assessment, utilizing fundamentally different philosophies.
  • Data is built on robust foundations including SEC EDGAR XBRL filings and daily updates from public market feeds.
Risk Factors
  • The composite fair value of $17.24 implies a -67.5% downside from the current price of $56.55.
  • Eleven out of twelve models flag the stock as overvalued, suggesting market expectations exceed fundamental support.
  • The QOC score of 3.8/10 signals below-average fundamentals with mixed signals across key metrics like margin stability and free cash flow.
  • Extreme model dispersion (+102.5% range) demonstrates significant uncertainty regarding the stock's true intrinsic value.
  • Low average model confidence (34%) may reflect limited historical data or high volatility inherent to the company.
Full Analysis
IonQ, Inc. (IONQ) currently trades at $56.55, which CirclFi's composite fair value model estimates is significantly overvalued at $17.24. The analysis indicates that 11 out of 12 active valuation models flag a downside risk, with an average implied decline of -67.5%. This suggests the market may be pricing in growth expectations that current fundamentals do not yet support. The company operates within the competitive Services-Computer Integrated Systems Design sector, where it ranks #42 out of 46 peers based on CirclFi's Quality of Company (QOC) score. The QOC framework evaluates 32 fundamental signals, including margin stability and revenue growth, resulting in a moderate-tier score of 3.8/10 that highlights mixed signals and notable weaknesses. CirclFi's proprietary Value Trap algorithm assigns IONQ a score of 18/100 (SAFE), indicating minimal risk of fundamental deterioration despite the apparent undervaluation metrics often associated with such scores. The analysis emphasizes the importance of multi-model analysis, noting a massive dispersion between the most bullish model (PWERM at $60.09) and the bearish Dynamic NAV model ($2.16), spanning a range of +102.5%.