Intel Corporation

(NASDAQ Global Select)
Back to all articles
Bullish +55

Intel Stock Is Up 121% This Year. Here’s the Number to Watch on October 29

Capital raising Financial outlook AI-generated analysis

πŸ“ˆ Intel stock has gained 120.8% since early January, closing at $86.96 on October 23 after a historic 23.60% surge in April.

πŸ’° The company raised $20 billion through its first public share sale since 1971, pricing 210 million shares at $95 per unit.

πŸ“Š First-quarter revenue beat estimates by 9.3%, reporting $13.58 billion against a consensus of $12.42 billion.

πŸ”­ Analysts project normalized EPS of $1.53 for the current year, representing a significant recovery from $0.42 in 2025.

πŸ“‰ The stock recently fell below the $95 price paid in August as broader chip-sector fears and AI spending concerns weighed on sentiment.

πŸ—οΈ Intel has raised its capital spending plan to $20 billion for 2026, with management signaling further increases are coming in 2027.

🎯 The mean Wall Street price target stands at $117.14, implying a potential upside of roughly 35% from current levels.

πŸ“… Third-quarter earnings are scheduled for release after the close on October 29 with revenue guidance of $15.8B-$16.8B.

🀝 Intel agreed to buy back its 49% stake in the Ireland fab joint venture from Apollo Global Management for $14.2 billion.

πŸš€ The company is targeting a normalized EPS of $3.09 by 2028, trading at a forward multiple of 28.1x that year's estimate.

Bullish Signals
  • Intel delivered a strong first-quarter beat with revenue of $13.58 billion versus $12.42 billion expected, driving its best single-day performance in nearly four decades.
  • Wall Street analysts have raised their mean price target to $117.14, which is 34.7% above the current stock price of $86.96.
  • The company successfully executed its first public share sale since listing in 1971, raising $20 billion to fund its manufacturing expansion plans.
  • Analysts forecast normalized EPS growth from $0.42 in 2025 to $1.53 this year, indicating a robust recovery trajectory.
  • Intel's third-quarter revenue guidance of $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion aligns with the market's expectation needed to meet the full-year EPS target.
Risk Factors
  • The stock has retreated significantly from its June peak, trading below the $95 price paid in the August share offering as sector-wide fears dampened sentiment.
  • Recent market volatility has been exacerbated by broader chip-sector selloffs and questions regarding the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending.
Full Analysis
Intel (INTC) stock has surged 120.8% since early January, driven primarily by a massive 23.60% one-day gain in April following a significant first-quarter earnings beat. The company reported revenue of $13.58 billion against analyst expectations of $12.42 billion, with adjusted EPS of $0.29 versus a near-zero estimate of $0.01. This performance propelled the share price past $140 by late June, marking its best day in nearly four decades. However, subsequent months have seen significant volatility and pullbacks for Intel. The stock faced pressure from a $20 billion capital spending hike, a major public share sale to raise $20 billion, and broader chip-sector selloffs linked to macro concerns and questions about AI spending. By October 23, shares closed at $86.96, trading below the price paid in the August offering and roughly 19% lower than mid-month highs. Analysts maintain a mean price target of $117.14, which sits 34.7% above the current closing price, suggesting potential upside if execution improves. Wall Street expects normalized EPS to reach $1.53 this year, up from $0.42 in 2025, with further growth projected for 2027 and 2028. The upcoming third-quarter earnings report on October 29 is critical, with revenue guidance set between $15.8 billion and $16.8 billion. Investors are closely watching Intel's future capital expenditure plans, particularly the anticipated increase in spending for 2027. Management has indicated that spending will be 'up meaningfully' beyond the already raised $20 billion figure for 2026. The market remains patient regarding current valuation multiples, which trade at 56.8x this year's earnings estimate but drop to 28.1x based on 2028 projections, contingent on those future numbers being met.