Intel Corporation

(NASDAQ Global Select)
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Slightly Bullish +25

Intel Cratered Over The Last 90 Days: This Prominent Analyst Says It’s Going to Double

Analyst upgrade Capital raising Chip design win AI-generated analysis

πŸ“‰ Intel shares have cratered 33% from their 52-week high of $142.35, currently trading at $95.37 despite a recent EPS beat.

πŸ’° The company announced a $20 billion common stock offering to fund factory buildouts, which has pushed the share price below the offering level.

πŸ“ˆ Second-quarter revenue reached $16.13 billion, representing a 25.4% year-over-year increase and the strongest growth in over fifteen years.

🀝 Tesla has signed on as Intel's 14A foundry customer, validating the company's advanced process node capabilities.

βš™οΈ Intel's internal 18A output ran approximately 25% above target, with high-volume production scheduled for 2028.

πŸ“‰ The external foundry business lost $2.1 billion in the quarter with only $293 million in revenue, highlighting ongoing profitability challenges.

🏦 Of 49 analysts covering Intel, 15 rate it Buy/Strong Buy while 32 maintain a Hold rating with an average price target of $118.05.

πŸ“Š Fiscal 2027 EPS consensus estimates have risen to $2.08 from $1.54 over the past 90 days despite the stock's decline.

🎯 Management guides non-GAAP EPS for the third quarter at $0.38 with gross margins expected near 42%.

⚠️ CFO David Zinsner warned that Intel may need to tap capital markets again, implying potential future dilution if funding gaps persist.

Bullish Signals
  • Second-quarter revenue surged 25.4% year-over-year to $16.13 billion, marking the strongest revenue growth in more than fifteen years.
  • Tesla has officially signed as a customer for Intel's 14A foundry process, providing validation for its advanced manufacturing capabilities.
  • The internal 18A output ran approximately 25% above target, demonstrating strong technical execution ahead of high-volume production in 2028.
  • Analyst estimates for fiscal 2027 EPS have risen to $2.08 from $1.54 over the last 90 days, indicating improving earnings visibility.
  • Management projects server demand growth will be well north of a double-digit CAGR, suggesting robust long-term market tailwinds.
Risk Factors
  • The stock has declined 33% from its 52-week high and fell 7.4% over the last 90 days while competitors like AMD and NVIDIA gained value.
  • The external foundry business lost $2.1 billion in the quarter with only $293 million in revenue, indicating significant unprofitability in this strategic segment.
  • A massive $20 billion common stock offering was announced to fund factory buildouts, which has pushed share prices below the offering price and raised dilution concerns.
  • CFO David Zinsner stated that Intel may need to tap capital markets again, suggesting potential future equity issuance to cover funding gaps.
  • The company trades at a forward P/E of 63, which is elevated compared to historical norms and peer valuations.
Full Analysis
Intel (INTC) shares have declined approximately 33% from their 52-week high of $142.35, trading at $95.37 as of the report date. Despite a recent quarter where non-GAAP EPS beat consensus estimates at $0.42 versus $0.2175, the stock fell significantly following the announcement of a massive $20 billion common stock offering intended to fund factory buildouts. This capital raise has pushed share prices below the offering price, contributing to the broader selloff that saw Intel drop 7.4% over the last 90 days while rivals like AMD and NVIDIA gained ground. The company is executing a strategic turnaround under CEO Lip-Bu Tan, highlighted by a 25.4% year-over-year revenue increase in the second quarter to $16.13 billion, which management described as its strongest growth in over fifteen years. Key bullish drivers include the recent signing of Tesla as a customer for its 14A foundry process and strong performance from its internal 18A output, which ran 25% above target. However, the external foundry business remains unprofitable, having lost $2.1 billion in the quarter with revenue totaling only $293 million. Wall Street sentiment is mixed but generally cautious, with an average analyst price target of $118.05 implying roughly 24% upside from current levels. Of 49 analysts covering the stock, the majority hold a 'Hold' rating, though estimates for fiscal 2027 EPS have risen to $2.08. A prominent bullish case suggests the stock could double to $200 within two years if foundry customers expand beyond Tesla and gross margins approach the guided 42% for the third quarter, contingent on server demand exceeding supply.