Gilead Sciences, Inc.

(NASDAQ Global Select)
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Somewhat Bullish +35

Should You Buy, Hold, or Sell GILD Stock Ahead of Q1 Earnings?

AI-generated analysis

πŸ“… Gilead Sciences (GILD) is set to report Q1 earnings on May 7 after market close, with consensus estimates for sales at $6.89 billion and EPS at $1.89.

⬇️ Analyst estimates for 2026 and 2027 have slightly declined recently, dropping to $8.62 and $9.62 per share respectively over the past 60 days.

πŸ“ˆ The company has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters with an average surprise of 4.76%.

πŸ’‘ Gilead currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and has a positive Earnings ESP of +0.33%, indicating potential for an earnings beat.

🦠 The HIV franchise remains the core driver, with Biktarvy accounting for over 52% market share in the U.S. treatment market as the top revenue generator.

πŸ’‰ Descovy continues to lead the prevention market with a 45% share in the U.S., where roughly 80% of sales are attributed to PrEP usage.

πŸ†• The newly approved injectable HIV-1 capsid inhibitor, Yeztugo (lenacapavir), showed encouraging early uptake with $96 million in Q4 sales and projected revenues of ~$800 million for 2026.

πŸ“Š Management projects total HIV sales growth of approximately 6% year-over-year, despite pricing pressures from government drug agreements expected to reduce growth by two percentage points.

πŸ’Š The Liver Disease portfolio saw likely increases in Q1 sales driven by strong demand for Livdelzi (seladelpar) for treating primary biliary cholangitis.

πŸ“‰ Cell Therapy product sales face headwinds due to competition, causing estimates to decrease, with the consensus estimate pinned at $432 million for the quarter.

🎯 Trodelvy is gaining market share in second-line metastatic breast cancer and has received approval for pre-treated HR+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer, with potential first-line approval expected in 2026.

πŸ’Ό Gilead’s strategic moves include investing heavily in R&D and sales/marketing to support commercial launches of new therapies like Yeztugo and Livdelzi.

πŸ“ˆ GILD shares have outperformed the sector and S&P 500 year-to-date, rising 6.6% compared to the industry's 3.2% growth.

πŸ’° Currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of 14.62x, which is above the company's historical mean but below the large-cap pharma industry average of 16.18x.

🌍 Positive data from recent phase III studies evaluating bictegravir and lenacapavir combinations serves as a significant boost for Gilead’s HIV treatment pipeline.

Bullish Signals
  • GILD has a strong track record of earnings beats in three of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 4.76%.
  • The company holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and a positive Earnings ESP of +0.33%, which increases the odds of another earnings beat.
  • Flagship HIV therapies Biktarvy and Descovy continue to fuel top-line growth, with Biktarvy accounting for over 52% of the U.S. treatment market.
  • The FDA approval for Yeztugo (lenacapavir) provides a significant boost to the HIV portfolio, with management projecting revenues of approximately $800 million in 2026.
  • Initial uptake for Yeztugo has been encouraging, generating $96 million in fourth-quarter sales and $150 million in 2025.
  • Total HIV sales are expected to grow approximately 6% year over year, driven by treatment and prevention portfolios.
  • New product Livdelzi is driving increased sales in the Liver Disease franchise due to higher demand for treating primary biliary cholangitis.
  • Positive data from phase III ARTISTRY-1 and ARTISTRY-2 studies serves as a significant boost for the company's HIV development pipeline.
  • The anti-cancer drug Trodelvy continues to gain market share in the second-line setting for metastatic breast cancer, with potential first-line approval expected in 2026.
  • GILD's shares have outperformed the sector and the S&P 500, rising 6.6% year to date compared to the industry's 3.2% growth.
Risk Factors
  • Forward earnings estimates have declined over the past 60 days, dropping to $8.62 per share for 2026 from $8.66 and $9.62 for 2027 from $9.63.
  • Company growth guidance incorporates pricing pressure from government drug-pricing agreements on legacy products and potential channel mix shifts tied to Affordable Care Act changes, reducing expected growth by roughly two percentage points.
  • Cell Therapy product sales have likely decreased in the first quarter due to competitive headwinds in both the United States and Europe affecting Yescarta and Tecartus.
  • Veklury sales are described as highly variable, indicating unpredictability in a key revenue segment.
  • R&D expenses might have increased in the first quarter, along with higher SG&A expenses reflecting investments to support commercial launches.
  • The stock trades at a forward P/E of 14.62x, which is higher than its historical mean of 11.55x, potentially presenting a valuation premium compared to the company's own history.
Full Analysis
Biotech giant Gilead Sciences (GILD) is preparing to report first-quarter results on May 7 following the market close, with Zacks Consensus Estimates projecting sales of $6.89 billion and earnings of $1.89 per share. Recent analyst sentiment has slightly tempered long-term growth expectations, with 2026 earnings per share estimates decreasing to $8.62 from $8.66 over the past 60 days, and 2027 estimates falling to $9.62 from $9.63. Historically, GILD has a solid earnings track record, beating estimates in three of its last four quarters with an average surprise of 4.76%, including a beat of 1.64% in the most recently reported quarter. The company currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 and an Earnings ESP of +0.33%. The core of GILE's growth strategy continues to revolve around its market-leading HIV franchise, which saw significant support from recent product approvals and strong sales figures. Its flagship therapies, Biktarvy and Descovy, remain dominant, with Biktarvy capturing over 52% of the U.S. HIV treatment market and Descovy holding more than 45% of the U.S. pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) market, roughly 80% of which is for HIV prevention. A key new driver is Yeztugo (lenacapavir), a twice-yearly injectable for HIV prevention, which generated $96 million in Q4 sales and is projected to reach $150 million in 2025 with an anticipated revenue of approximately $800 million in 2026. Consequently, Gilead expects total HIV sales to grow about 6% year over year, though this guidance factors in pricing pressures from government agreements and potential Affordable Care Act changes that could reduce growth by roughly two percentage points. Beyond HIV, GILE's diversified portfolio includes liver disease treatments like Livdelzi for primary biliary cholangitis, which has seen increased demand, and oncology assets such as Trodelvy for metastatic breast cancer, which continues to gain market share. While cell therapy products like Yescarta and Tecartus are expected to show a decrease in sales due to competitive headwinds in the U.S. and Europe, innovation remains strong with positive data emerging from ARTISTRY-1 and ARTISTRY-2 studies for HIV treatments. Despite outperforming both its sector and the S&P 500 by 6.6% year to date, GILD trades at a forward P/E ratio of 14.62x, which is above its historical mean but below the broader large-cap pharma industry average of 16.18x. Investors will be watching closely as the company navigates competition from peers like GSK plc, whose long-acting HIV injectables are seeing strong demand, while Gilead leverages its scale and pipeline depth to maintain its status as a safe haven in the biotechnology sector.