First Solar (FSLR) shares have faced recent headwinds, dropping 18.6% over the past 90 days and 37.1% year-to-date, though the company maintains a strong five-year total shareholder return of 62.5%. The stock is currently trading at $172.64, significantly below a calculated fair value of $263 per share derived from discounted cash flow models that incorporate booked volumes and current profitability. The analysis highlights First Solar's unique position as the only scaled U.S. thin-film module maker with a robust multi-year contracted backlog extending to 2030, totaling 45.1 GW. This domestic-content advantage is bolstered by Section 45X tax credits running through the early 2030s, which underpin the company's earnings power despite recent light revenue growth in Q2 2026. Investors view the current valuation as a 34% discount to fair value, supported by forecasted annual earnings growth of 16.14% and revenue growth of 9%. The company reported net income of $1.75 billion on $5.38 billion in revenue, reflecting healthy profit margins that analysts believe the market is currently discounting more heavily than warranted given the policy support and contracted demand. However, the bullish thesis faces potential headwinds if policy support weakens faster than contracts can reset or if new bookings trend toward lower pricing similar to recent developments in India. The article concludes that while risks exist regarding future cash flow assumptions, the fundamental setup suggests meaningful upside remains on the table as valuation resets.