Elevance Health Inc.

(New York Stock Exchange)
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Slightly Bearish -20

Unveiling Elevance Health (ELV) Q3 Outlook: Wall Street Estimates for Key Metrics

Earnings report AI-generated analysis

πŸ“‰ Analysts forecast Q3 EPS of $4.66, marking a significant 22.7% decline compared to the year-ago period.

πŸ’° Total revenue is estimated at $48.6 billion, reflecting a 3% year-over-year decrease.

πŸ“Š 'Revenues- Premiums' are projected to drop by 4.9% to $39.73 billion in the upcoming quarter.

πŸ“ˆ 'Product revenue' is expected to grow by 5.3% to reach $6.49 billion.

πŸ‘₯ Total Medical Membership is estimated at 44.26 million, a decrease from the previous year's 45.37 million.

πŸ₯ Medicare Advantage membership is forecast to decline to 1.86 million from 2.25 million last year.

πŸ’΅ 'Net investment income' is predicted to fall sharply by 23.8% to $476.23 million.

πŸ“‰ Commercial Fee-Based membership is expected to rise to 27.46 million, up from 27.00 million.

βš–οΈ The Benefit Expense Ratio is anticipated to hold steady at 91.4%, identical to the prior quarter.

πŸ“ˆ ELV shares have appreciated 3.4% in the past month, outperforming the S&P 500's 2.4% gain.

πŸ† The stock maintains a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) rating with expectations of near-term outperformance.

Bullish Signals
  • Elevance Health shares have gained 3.4% over the past month, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 composite which rose only 2.4%.
  • The stock holds a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) rating, indicating expectations for near-term outperformance relative to the overall market.
Risk Factors
  • Analysts forecast Q3 earnings per share of $4.66, representing a substantial 22.7% decline compared to the year-ago period.
  • Total revenue is estimated at $48.6 billion, reflecting a 3% year-over-year decrease driven by lower premiums and investment income.
  • 'Revenues- Premiums' are projected to contract by 4.9% to $39.73 billion, indicating a decline in core business revenue.
  • Total Medical Membership is expected to fall to 44.26 million, down from 45.37 million in the same quarter last year.
  • 'Net investment income' is forecast to drop sharply by 23.8% to $476.23 million, reducing overall profitability.
  • Medicare Advantage membership is projected to decline to 1.86 million from 2.25 million the previous year.
Full Analysis
Wall Street analysts project Elevance Health (ELV) to report Q3 earnings of $4.66 per share, representing a 22.7% decline year-over-year. Revenue estimates stand at $48.6 billion, down 3% from the prior-year period, with no recent revisions to the consensus EPS forecast over the last 30 days. Analyst expectations for specific revenue segments show mixed performance, with 'Revenues- Premiums' estimated to drop by 4.9% to $39.73 billion and 'Net investment income' falling 23.8% to $476.23 million. Conversely, 'Product revenue' is forecast to grow by 5.3% to $6.49 billion, while 'Service fees' are expected to rise 5.7% to $2.26 billion. Membership metrics indicate a contraction in total medical membership to an estimated 44.26 million, down from 45.37 million the previous year. Specific segments like Medicare Advantage and Commercial Risk-Based Individual memberships are projected to decline, whereas Commercial Fee-Based membership is expected to increase slightly to 27.46 million. The consensus Benefit Expense Ratio is predicted to remain stable at 91.4%, matching the prior-year quarter's reported figure of 91.3%. Despite these fundamental declines in earnings and premiums, ELV shares have gained 3.4% over the past month, outperforming the S&P 500, and maintain a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) rating.