Dell Technologies Inc.

(New York Stock Exchange)
Slightly Bullish +25

Dell Stock Is Falling in Pre-market Today: What’s Behind the Drop and What Wall Street Expects Next

πŸ“‰ DELL stock fell over 3% in pre-market trading after Barclays analyst Tim Long downgraded the company from Overweight to Equalweight.

πŸ“‰ Analyst Tim Long cut his price target for DELL from $603 to $574, citing concerns that slowing growth will limit further upside after the recent rally.

πŸš€ Strong demand for AI servers has driven a massive 359% gain for DELL year-to-date, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's roughly 14% return.

πŸ’° Dell successfully offset higher memory costs to support earnings, though Long expects growth to slow as memory prices normalize over the next two years.

πŸ“ˆ Revenue from DELL's AI server business is projected to triple to $75 billion this fiscal year due to robust AI spending.

πŸ“‰ Operating expenses as a share of revenue are expected to fall from 15.6% in fiscal 2024 to an estimated 8% in fiscal 2027.

πŸ€” Long warns that future growth will likely be driven by higher selling prices rather than stronger unit demand.

πŸ“Š Wall Street maintains a Moderate Buy consensus on DELL with an average price target of $598.20, implying 4.49% upside potential.

Bullish Signals
  • Strong demand for AI servers has driven a massive 359% gain for DELL year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500.
  • Dell successfully offset higher memory costs to support earnings, demonstrating effective cost management during inflationary periods.
  • Revenue from DELL's AI server business is projected to triple to $75 billion this fiscal year given strong AI spending.
  • Operating expenses as a share of revenue are expected to fall from 15.6% in fiscal 2024 to an estimated 8% in fiscal 2027, improving margins.
  • Wall Street maintains a Moderate Buy consensus on DELL with an average price target of $598.20, implying 4.49% upside potential.
Risk Factors
  • Barclays analyst Tim Long downgraded DELL from Overweight to Equalweight and cut the price target from $603 to $574.
  • Analysts warn that the scale of future earnings beats should become much smaller, limiting stock upside after the sharp rally.
  • Growth is expected to slow over the next two years as memory prices normalize and potentially decline.
  • Future growth may be driven by higher selling prices rather than stronger unit demand, indicating potential saturation in volume.
Full Analysis
Dell Technologies (DELL) shares fell over 3% in pre-market trading following a downgrade by Barclays analyst Tim Long, who moved his rating from Overweight to Equalweight and cut the price target from $603 to $574. The analyst cited concerns that the stock's sharp year-to-date rally, which has outperformed the S&P 500 significantly, may be reaching a peak as growth rates are expected to normalize. Long highlighted that while Dell successfully offset higher memory costs to drive recent performance, future revenue growth will likely rely on higher selling prices rather than increased unit demand. He warned that the magnitude of earnings beats should diminish over the next two years as memory prices stabilize or decline, potentially limiting further upside for the stock despite its strong AI server trajectory. Despite the downgrade, Long maintains a positive outlook on Dell's core AI server business, projecting revenue to triple to $75 billion this fiscal year and potentially exceed $100 billion by fiscal 2028. The analyst also noted Dell's operational efficiency improvements, with operating expenses as a share of revenue dropping from 15.6% in fiscal 2024 to an estimated 8% in fiscal 2027, which has supported earnings even amidst cost pressures. Wall Street consensus remains Moderate Buy on DELL, with an average price target of $598.20 implying roughly 4.49% upside from current levels. The analyst community acknowledges the company's execution on cost management and AI demand but anticipates a slower growth phase ahead as the initial post-pandemic inventory build and memory inflation cycles conclude.