Dominion Energy, Inc.

(New York Stock Exchange)
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Slightly Bullish +25

Dominion vs. WEC Energy: Which Dividend Stock Pays You More in 10 Years?

Dividend AI-generated analysis

πŸ“ˆ Dominion Energy (D) reaffirmed 2026 earnings guidance of $3.45 to $3.69 per share, with operating earnings rising to $1.75 in the first half of 2026.

πŸ“‰ Dominion's dividend has remained flat at $2.67 per share since fiscal 2022 after being cut from $3.45 in fiscal 2020, resulting in a payout ratio of 78% on fiscal 2025 normalized EPS.

πŸ“ˆ WEC Energy Group (WEC) raised its dividend by 6.7% in January to $3.81 annually and plans to grow it further at 6.5% to 7% per year while maintaining a payout ratio of 65% to 70%.

πŸ—οΈ Both Dominion and WEC are investing heavily in new power plants and grid capacity to serve data center demand, with WEC supporting a $37.5 billion five-year capital plan driven by major clients like Microsoft and Oracle.

πŸ’° A decade-long projection indicates that WEC pays approximately $922 more than Dominion over 10 years on a $10,000 investment due to its compounding dividend growth strategy.

⚠️ Dominion carries a net debt load of 6.34x EBITDA and faces a proposed merger with NextEra Energy (NEE), while its payout ratio was as high as 96% in fiscal 2024.

πŸ“… WEC's Wisconsin rate case orders are expected by year-end, with new rates scheduled to take effect in January 2027, which will impact its ability to fund capital plans and sustain dividend growth.

πŸ“Š WEC expects normalized EPS to climb from $5.27 in fiscal 2025 to $6.50 in fiscal 2028, supporting its ability to maintain a payout ratio within its target range of 65% to 70%.

Bullish Signals
  • Dominion Energy reaffirmed its 2026 earnings guidance of $3.45 to $3.69 per share and reported operating earnings of $1.75 per share for the first half of 2026, up from $1.68 a year prior.
  • Dominion has secured more than 53 gigawatts of data center capacity in various stages of contracting, with about 12 gigawatts under electric service agreements as of its second-quarter call.
Risk Factors
  • Dominion Energy carries a high net debt load of 6.34x EBITDA and has maintained a flat dividend since fiscal 2022 after cutting it from $3.45 in fiscal 2020.
  • Dominion's payout ratio was as high as 134% in fiscal 2023 and 96% in fiscal 2024, indicating tight coverage before tightening to a manageable 78% in fiscal 2025.
  • Dominion faces uncertainty regarding its proposed merger with NextEra Energy (NEE), which remains pending completion.
Full Analysis
Dominion Energy (D) and WEC Energy Group (WEC) are both utility stocks building new power plants and grid capacity to serve data centers, with both companies reaffirming their 2026 earnings guidance in late July. Dominion currently offers a higher yield of 4.3% compared to WEC's 3.8%, but its dividend has remained flat at $2.67 per share since fiscal 2022 following a cut in previous years. In contrast, WEC Energy Group has increased its dividend for 23 consecutive years, raising it by 6.7% in January to an annual rate of $3.81. The company plans to continue growing dividends at an annual rate between 6.5% and 7%, maintaining a payout ratio of 65% to 70% of earnings. WEC's financial discipline is highlighted by a consistent payout history ranging from 65% to 68% since fiscal 2016. A decade-long projection shows that investing $10,000 in WEC would result in significantly higher total income than Dominion due to compounding dividend growth. While Dominion pays a larger initial check of $430 annually on a $10,000 investment versus WEC's $380, WEC's growing dividends allow it to surpass Dominion's total payout by 2028. WEC also projects normalized earnings growth from $5.27 in fiscal 2025 to $6.50 in fiscal 2028. Key risks and catalysts for Dominion include its high net debt load of 6.34x EBITDA and a proposed merger with NextEra Energy, alongside a payout ratio that reached 96% in fiscal 2024 before tightening to 75% in 2025. WEC faces regulatory uncertainty regarding its Wisconsin rate case orders expected by year-end, which will determine new rates effective in January 2027 and support its capital plan.