Cisco Systems, Inc.

(NASDAQ Global Select)
Neutral +5

How Low Can Cisco Stock Go?

πŸ“‰ Cisco stock has lost 8.7% in the past month while peers like Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Dell fell even further.

πŸ’° Revenue reached $63.3 billion in the twelve months ending July 2026, representing an 11.8% increase over the previous year.

πŸ“ˆ Networking segment revenue grew 22.5% to $34.7 billion in fiscal 2026, driving overall sales expansion.

🏦 Cisco's total debt rose to $29.5 billion by the end of fiscal 2026, up from $8.39 billion in fiscal 2023.

πŸ“‰ Product gross margin decreased to 64.8% in fiscal Q4 due to higher hardware mix and increased memory costs.

πŸ—£οΈ Management expects mid-to-high single-digit growth for security sales in fiscal Q1 2027 following a strong Q4.

πŸ’΅ Price increases contributed approximately 5 points to revenue growth in fiscal Q4, with similar hikes planned for fiscal 2027.

πŸ“… Cisco is expected to report fiscal Q1 2027 results in November 2026, focusing on product gross margin performance.

Bullish Signals
  • Revenue reached $63.3 billion in the twelve months ending July 2026, marking an 11.8% increase compared to the prior year.
  • Networking, the company's largest business segment, grew 22.5% to $34.7 billion in fiscal 2026.
  • Operating margins expanded to 25.4% over the twelve months ending July 2026, up from 22.1% a year earlier.
  • Security sales grew 14% in fiscal Q4 2026, demonstrating strong performance in that specific segment.
Risk Factors
  • Product gross margin declined to 64.8% in fiscal Q4, down 270 basis points from a year earlier due to higher memory costs and increased hardware mix.
  • The company's debt load has jumped significantly to $29.5 billion by the end of fiscal 2026, compared to $8.39 billion in fiscal 2023.
  • Management expects security sales growth to slow from 14% in Q4 to mid-to-high single digits in fiscal Q1 2027.
Full Analysis
Cisco Systems (CSCO) stock has declined 8.7% over the past month, outperforming peers like Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Dell Technologies which fell further. The article analyzes Cisco's historical resilience during market shocks since 2007, noting that while it typically falls as much as the broader S&P 500, recovery times vary significantly, with some periods taking over a year to regain previous highs. Financially, Cisco is demonstrating faster revenue growth compared to the prior year, with total sales reaching $63.3 billion in the twelve months ending July 2026, an increase of 11.8%. Its largest segment, networking, drove this expansion with a 22.5% rise to $34.7 billion, while operating margins improved to 25.4%. However, the company's debt load has increased substantially to $29.5 billion by fiscal 2026, though it remains low relative to its market value at 7.3%. Current pressures on Cisco include a slowdown in expected security sales growth and reliance on price increases to boost revenue, which added about 5 points to Q4 growth. Management anticipates mid-to-high single-digit growth for fiscal Q1 2027 but warns of margin headwinds as the company ships high volumes of hardware with higher memory costs, causing product gross margins to drop to 64.8%.