Cisco Systems, Inc.

(NASDAQ Global Select)
Bullish +72

Could You Catch The Next Run In Cisco Stock?

πŸ“ˆ Cisco Systems stock returned 57.3% in the year to October 28, 2026, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 14.0% return.

πŸ’° Management reported a jump in orders for AI networking gear from the largest cloud companies driving recent performance.

πŸ“Š Cisco's full-year revenue for fiscal 2025 was $56.7 billion, with AI orders initially representing a small portion of total sales.

πŸš€ Networking sales grew 22.5% in fiscal 2026 after shrinking the previous year, contributing to overall company growth.

πŸ“‰ The price-to-sales multiple for Cisco rose from 4.8 in September 2025 to 6.7 in September 2026 reflecting investor optimism.

πŸ€– AI infrastructure revenue from top cloud customers reached $9.3 billion for fiscal 2026, about 4.5 times the prior year total.

πŸ“ˆ Sales growth accelerated to 17.6% in the quarter ended July 2026 compared to 7.5% in the quarter ended October 2025.

🎯 Management guided for $7.5 billion of AI infrastructure revenue from these customers in fiscal 2027.

⚠️ Shares lost 2.5% from July 30 to October 28, 2026, while the S&P 500 returned 4.4% during that period.

πŸ“‰ Cisco experienced an 8.4% one-day fall on August 13 as investors weighed pressure on gross margins.

Bullish Signals
  • Cisco Systems stock returned 57.3% in the year to October 28, 2026, against 14.0% for the S&P 500.
  • Management reported record orders for AI infrastructure from its largest cloud customers during the fiscal Q4 2025 call.
  • Networking sales grew 22.5% in fiscal 2026 after shrinking the year before, indicating a return to growth in core business.
  • Orders from the largest cloud companies at least doubled from a year earlier in the quarter ended July 2026, reaching $4 billion.
  • Total AI infrastructure orders from top customers came to $9.3 billion for fiscal 2026, about 4.5 times the fiscal 2025 total.
  • Cisco's sales growth sped up through fiscal 2026, rising from 7.5% in the quarter ended October 2025 to 17.6% in the quarter ended July 2026.
  • The price-to-sales multiple rose from 4.8 in September 2025 to 6.7 in September 2026, indicating increased investor valuation.
  • Management guided to $7.5 billion of AI infrastructure revenue from the largest cloud customers in fiscal 2027.
Risk Factors
  • Cisco's full-year networking sales fell 3.2% for fiscal 2025, with total sales growth coming primarily from security sales.
  • Shares lost 2.5% from July 30 to October 28, 2026, while the S&P 500 returned 4.4% during that stretch.
  • The stock experienced an 8.4% one-day fall on August 13 after the latest report as investors weighed pressure on gross margins.
Full Analysis
Cisco Systems (CSCO) stock delivered a significant 57.3% return over the year ending October 28, 2026, substantially outperforming the S&P 500's 14.0% gain. This rally was driven by management reporting a substantial jump in orders for its AI networking gear from major cloud companies. Although early guidance in late 2024 set a modest $1 billion target for fiscal 2025, subsequent filings revealed that this initial figure represented only a small fraction of Cisco's total $56.7 billion revenue for that year. By the end of fiscal 2026, AI infrastructure from these largest cloud customers accounted for approximately 6% of Cisco's total revenue, up from less than 2% in the prior fiscal year. The networking business, which constitutes more than half of Cisco's sales, grew 22.5% in fiscal 2026 after a contraction the previous year. Consequently, investors increased their valuation multiple on Cisco, with the price-to-sales ratio rising from 4.8 to 6.7 between September 2025 and September 2026. Recent data confirms that AI orders continue to accelerate. In the quarter ended July 2026, orders from top cloud customers reached $4 billion, more than doubling from the prior year, while total fiscal 2026 AI infrastructure orders totaled $9.3 billion. This surge contributed to a pick-up in overall sales growth, which accelerated from 7.5% in the quarter ended October 2025 to 17.6% in the quarter ended July 2026. Management has guided for $7.5 billion of AI infrastructure revenue from these customers in fiscal 2027. Despite the strong performance and rising stock price, Cisco shares have recently lagged the broader market, losing 2.5% from late July to October 28, 2026, while the S&P 500 gained 4.4%. This recent decline occurred even after a sharp 8.4% drop on August 13 as investors weighed potential pressure on gross margins. Management notes that orders are large and uneven, often placed well in advance, making upcoming November 2026 results a key figure to watch for continued order updates.