The Boeing Company

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Somewhat Bearish -45

Boeing (BA) Stock Drops as Trump-Xi Summit Unlikely to Bring New China Deal

Aircraft order Production ramp-up AI-generated analysis

πŸ“‰ Boeing shares dropped 2.3% to $195.07 after reports indicated a Trump-Xi summit would likely not produce a fresh Chinese jet order.

πŸ“Š The stock is down roughly 8% year-to-date and off about 7% over the past 12 months heading into Thursday's session.

✈️ Boeing is reportedly focused on finalizing its May agreement for 200 jets rather than pushing for hundreds of additional planes.

πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³ China currently accounts for only about 2% of Boeing's backlog, a steep drop from the 20% share of deliveries seen between 2010 and 2019.

⚠️ The planemaker has been held back by trade tensions and lingering fallout from the 737 MAX crisis while Airbus expanded its footprint in China.

🀝 U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stated that about 140 orders are in good shape with another 10 being finalized under the May deal.

🏭 CEO Kelly Ortberg noted that the 737 MAX production ramp-up is moving slowly, causing shares to dip recently.

β›½ Oil prices remain a factor weighing on the stock, which traded above $230 before recent spikes pushed it below $190.

πŸ” Boeing still needs to certify its 777X and 737 MAX-10 jets for commercial service despite a total backlog of almost 6,800 planes.

πŸ’° Wall Street expects Boeing to deliver more than 800 jets in 2028, translating into roughly $10 billion in free cash flow.

Bullish Signals
  • About 140 orders under the May agreement are considered in good shape with another 10 being finalized according to U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.
  • The company maintains a substantial total backlog of almost 6,800 unfilled planes despite recent market headwinds.
  • Wall Street expects Boeing to deliver more than 800 jets in 2028, which would translate into roughly $10 billion in free cash flow.
Risk Factors
  • Shares dropped 2.3% after reports suggested a summit between President Trump and President Xi Jinping was unlikely to produce a fresh Chinese jet order.
  • China currently accounts for only about 2% of Boeing's backlog, a steep drop from the 20% share of deliveries represented between 2010 and 2019.
  • The planemaker has been largely shut out of new Chinese orders since 2017 while Airbus has expanded its footprint in the country during that stretch.
  • CEO Kelly Ortberg stated that the 737 MAX production ramp-up is moving slowly, causing shares to dip recently after his comments at a September conference.
  • Oil prices are another factor weighing on the stock as Boeing traded above $230 before recent spikes pushed it below $190.
Full Analysis
Boeing (BA) shares fell approximately 2.3% to $195.07 on Thursday following reports that a summit between President Trump and President Xi Jinping is unlikely to generate a new major Chinese jet order. The stock has underperformed recently, dropping about 8% year-to-date and roughly 7% over the past 12 months as investors digest mixed signals regarding its recovery in the Chinese market. The company is reportedly focused on finalizing an existing May agreement for 200 jets rather than pursuing a larger deal of up to 500 aircraft that was previously discussed. This order represents a critical step toward reopening China, which currently accounts for only about 2% of Boeing's backlog compared to roughly 20% of deliveries between 2010 and 2019. Airbus has captured most of the growth in Chinese orders since Boeing was largely shut out following the 737 MAX crisis. Beyond the China situation, Boeing faces significant operational headwinds including slow production ramp-ups for the 737 MAX and pending certifications for the 777X and 737 MAX-10. Analysts note that while Wall Street expects over 800 jets to be delivered in 2028 generating roughly $10 billion in free cash flow, near-term stock performance is heavily influenced by production rates, fuel costs, and lingering fallout from past safety issues.