Boeing earnings: when will BA target $10B free cash flow again?
π Boeing shares extended gains on Tuesday despite a wider-than-expected Q2 loss of 76 cents per share versus 30 cents expected.
π° Management maintained full-year free cash flow guidance of up to $3 billion and signaled potential reinstatement of long-term ~$10 billion FCF targets.
βοΈ Flight testing for the 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 is complete, with FAA certification expected shortly for the -7 model and later this year for the -10.
π‘οΈ A $280 million one-time charge on the VC-25B presidential jet program drove the Q2 bottom-line miss under a fixed-price agreement signed in 2018.
π¨π³ Boeing secured a headline commitment for 200 aircraft from Chinese carriers following a visit by CEO Kelly Ortberg and President Trump to Beijing.
π€ The China deal remains in the allocation and contract negotiation phase, with binding orders expected to close in the coming months.
π Certification work on the 777X widebody continues alongside strong demand from international carriers, unlocking backlog deliveries starting in 2027.
π Defense revenue increased 13% in Q2 as the unit stabilizes with full-rate production for the T-7 trainer jet and MQ-25 tanker authorization.
π― Wall Street analysts rate BA stock as 'Overweight' with a mean price target of roughly $281.
β οΈ Key risk involves potential cost overruns on fixed-price defense programs forcing free-cash-flow guidance down, or delays in converting the China commitment into firm orders.
- Management maintained full-year free cash flow guidance of up to $3 billion despite a wider Q2 loss.
- CEO Kelly Ortberg signaled that Boeing could soon reinstate long-term guidance tied to approximately $10 billion in free cash flow.
- Flight testing for the 737 MAX 7 and MAX 10 variants is complete, with FAA certification expected shortly for the -7 model.
- The 777X widebody program sees 'super strong demand' from international carriers while certification work progresses.
- Defense revenue grew 13% in the second quarter as key programs hit operational milestones like full-rate production for the T-7 trainer jet.
- Boeing secured a headline commitment for 200 aircraft from Chinese carriers, marking its first major sale to China in nearly a decade.
- Analysts currently rate BA stock as 'Overweight' with a mean price target of roughly $281.
- Boeing posted a wider-than-expected Q2 loss of 76 cents per share versus the expected 30 cents, driven by a $280 million charge on the VC-25B program.
- The Defense, Space & Security unit continues to work through legacy fixed-price contracts that historically weigh on profits until fully delivered.
- The China headline deal represents an initial commitment rather than firm orders, as Boeing is still in the allocation and contract negotiation phase.