AutoZone (AZO) is analyzing a potential 30% stock price increase driven by the significant growth of its commercial repair-shop business, which now accounts for 29% of total sales. In fiscal Q4 2026, domestic commercial sales reached $1.9 billion, growing 8.6% year-over-year, while same-store sales to do-it-yourself customers in the U.S. declined by 0.6%. This divergence highlights a strategic shift where professional mechanic parts are becoming a more critical revenue driver compared to the traditional retail auto parts sector. Management projects continued expansion in the commercial segment for fiscal 2027, expecting domestic same-store sales to remain flat to low single digits while commercial sales grow at a high single-to-low double-digit rate. To support this growth, AutoZone plans to invest approximately $1.65 billion in capital spending during fiscal 2027, focusing on opening new hubs and Mega Hub stores. The company currently operates 172 Mega Hub locations and aims to reach roughly 300 over the next three years, despite acknowledging that new stores typically generate zero return on capital in their first year. The primary risk identified is the potential for AutoZone to incur high capital costs before the commercial growth fully materializes, especially if sales to repair shops slow down. Additionally, the company faces headwinds from inflation causing customers to defer purchases or trade down within the do-it-yourself segment. A change in leadership at the finance level adds another layer of uncertainty, as Chief Financial Officer Jamere Jackson resigned effective November 25, 2026, prompting an external search for a successor ahead of the next earnings report expected in December 2026.