Broadcom Inc.

(NASDAQ Global Select)
Slightly Bullish +25

Broadcom Just Dropped 15% in a Week. Is It Time to Sell, or Load Up?

πŸ“‰ Broadcom shares fell 15.5% in the week to Nov. 5 amid sector-wide weakness caused by Intel's weak outlook and fears of tighter AI regulations.

πŸ’° Fiscal Q3 revenue surged 86% year-over-year to $29.6 billion, with AI chip revenue jumping 221% to $16.7 billion.

πŸ“œ Committed contract value reached $179.2 billion as of Aug. 2, providing a robust order book for future growth.

⚠️ The company faces a significant risk from backstopping up to $72 billion in financing for AI racks leased to Anthropic.

🎯 Management aims to generate approximately $115 billion in AI revenue by fiscal 2027, targeting its largest custom-chip buyer.

πŸ“Š Analysts expect normalized EPS to reach $30.37 by fiscal 2028, representing a more than fourfold increase from current levels.

πŸ’΅ The stock trades at under 19x forward earnings on Nov. 2, well below its five-year average of 24x.

πŸ”‹ CEO Hock Tan identified power availability and building shells as major concerns that could be exacerbated by regulatory changes.

πŸ“… The upcoming December report is a key test requiring $21.7 billion in AI revenue and gross margins near 73%.

Bullish Signals
  • Fiscal third-quarter revenue rose 86% to $29.6 billion, demonstrating strong demand for the company's products.
  • AI chip revenue jumped 221% to $16.7 billion in the fiscal third quarter, highlighting a dominant growth segment.
  • Committed contract value hit $179.2 billion at Aug. 2, indicating a robust pipeline of future sales.
  • Management targets approximately $115 billion in AI revenue for fiscal 2027, signaling confidence in long-term growth.
  • The stock trades at under 19x forward earnings on Nov. 2, which is significantly below its five-year average of 24x.
Risk Factors
  • Broadcom shares dropped 15.5% in the week to Nov. 5 due to sector-wide fears of tighter AI rules and Intel's weak outlook.
  • The company backstops up to about $72 billion of financing for AI racks leased to Anthropic, creating a potential liability of up to $43 billion if defaults occur.
  • CEO Hock Tan warned that land, power, and building shells are 'more than a big concern,' which could constrain execution on large orders.
  • The stock's recent decline was exacerbated by broader market worries about slower data center building following the US midterm elections.
Full Analysis
Broadcom (AVGO) shares dropped 15.5% in the week leading up to November 5, driven largely by a broader chip sector rout triggered by Intel's weak outlook and concerns over potential tighter AI regulations following the US midterm elections. While Broadcom released no specific company news during this decline, it fell alongside peers Nvidia and AMD as investors reacted to fears of slower data center construction and regulatory headwinds. Despite the recent price volatility, the company maintains strong underlying fundamentals with fiscal third-quarter revenue surging 86% to $29.6 billion, fueled by a massive 221% increase in AI chip revenue reaching $16.7 billion. Management has secured significant long-term visibility, with committed contract value hitting $179.2 billion as of August 2 and a strategic goal to generate approximately $115 billion in AI revenue by fiscal 2027. A primary risk highlighted for investors is Broadcom's substantial financial backstop obligations related to its AI rack leasing agreements with Anthropic. The company has agreed to cover up to roughly $72 billion if Anthropic defaults or if the assets sell for less than a specific percentage of the owed lease value, creating a potential liability of up to $43 billion at peak exposure just as Anthropic prepares for an IPO. Analysts project normalized earnings per share (EPS) to more than quadruple over the next few years, rising from roughly $6.82 in fiscal 2025 to $30.37 by fiscal 2028. Currently trading at a forward P/E of under 19x, significantly below its five-year average of 24x, Broadcom appears undervalued relative to its order book, though the upcoming December report will be critical for validating continued high margins and revenue targets.