ASML Holding N.V.

(NASDAQ Global Select)
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Very Bullish +85

Why One Analyst Thinks ASML Is Worth $1,971

AI-generated analysis

πŸ“ˆ Bernstein raised its price target on ASML to $1,971 from $1,911, maintaining an Outperform rating and naming the company its top pick in the EU Semis sector.

πŸ’° ASML's stock has gained 91% over the past year and 16% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the Street's consensus price target of $1,469.35.

πŸ”¬ EUV systems revenue grew 39% year-over-year to $13.47 billion in 2025, driven by reduced cost per exposure enabling broader adoption among memory customers.

πŸ“¦ ASML recorded a record Q4 2025 order intake of $15.28 billion, including $8.60 billion in EUV orders, creating a contracted backlog of $45.06 billion.

πŸš€ Advanced memory and logic segments are growing at more than 20% year-on-year, well above the historical 6-7% pace.

🏭 Bernstein forecasts ASML will ship 44 EUV machines to DRAM customers in 2028, representing 45% of total EUV shipments that year.

πŸ’Έ ASML launched a new €12 billion share buyback program through 2028 and increased its dividend by 17% to €7.50 per share.

🎯 The company targets revenue between €44 billion and €60 billion by 2030, creating a compounding return structure for long-term investors.

⚠️ China represented $11.06 billion or 29.1% of ASML's 2025 sales, making export control restrictions the primary risk to achieving the higher price target.

Bullish Signals
  • Bernstein raised its price target on ASML to $1,971 from $1,911, maintaining an Outperform rating and naming ASML its top pick in the EU Semis sector.
  • ASML's stock has gained 91% over the past year and 16% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the Street's consensus price target of $1,469.35.
  • EUV systems revenue grew 39% year-over-year to $13.47 billion in 2025, driven by reduced cost per exposure enabling broader adoption among memory customers.
  • ASML recorded a record Q4 2025 order intake of $15.28 billion, including $8.60 billion in EUV orders, creating a contracted backlog of $45.06 billion.
  • Advanced memory and logic segments are growing at more than 20% year-on-year, well above the historical 6-7% pace.
  • Bernstein forecasts ASML will ship 44 EUV machines to DRAM customers in 2028, representing 45% of total EUV shipments that year.
  • ASML launched a new €12 billion share buyback program through 2028 and increased its dividend by 17% to €7.50 per share.
Risk Factors
  • China represented $11.06 billion or 29.1% of ASML's 2025 sales, making export control restrictions the primary risk to achieving the higher price target.
  • Reaching the $1,971 price target requires ASML to execute on 2026 revenue guidance of $39.49 billion to $45.30 billion while offsetting China headwinds with growth in Taiwan and South Korea.
Full Analysis
ASML Holding NV has delivered exceptional stock performance, rising 91% over the past year and 16% year-to-date, significantly outpacing the Street's consensus price target of $1,469.35. Analysts at Bernstein have issued a bullish upgrade, raising their price target to $1,971 and naming ASML their top pick in the EU Semis sector. This valuation implies a market capitalization exceeding $750 billion, driven by strong confidence in the company's ability to execute on aggressive revenue guidance and capitalize on expanding memory demand. The core of Bernstein's bullish thesis rests on accelerating DRAM capacity expansion, which is forcing memory manufacturers to aggressively increase capital spending. ASML forecasts shipping 44 EUV machines to DRAM customers in 2028, representing 45% of total EUV shipments and more than double the volume from 2025. This shift directly expands revenue concentration in the highest-margin product line, with EUV systems revenue growing 39% year-over-year to $13.47 billion in 2025 as reduced costs enable broader adoption. Beyond memory, ASML is benefiting from robust AI-driven demand across advanced logic and memory segments, which are growing at over 20% annually compared to historical rates of 6-7%. The company recorded a record Q4 2025 order intake of $15.28 billion, including $8.60 billion in EUV orders, resulting in a contracted backlog of $45.06 billion. To support long-term growth and shareholder returns, ASML has announced a new €12 billion share buyback program through 2028 and increased its dividend by 17% to €7.50 per share.