Amazon.com, Inc.

(NASDAQ Global Select)
Bullish +55

Is The Market Underpricing Amazon Stock At Twenty Times Earnings?

πŸ“Š Amazon trades at a P/E multiple of 20.5x for the twelve months to June 2026, well below its historical average of 41.2x.

πŸ’° Net income for the quarter ended June 2026 was $62.6 billion, significantly higher than operating income of $27.5 billion.

πŸ“ˆ Revenue grew 15.8% in the twelve months to June 2026, accelerating to 19.6% in the quarter ended June 2026.

☁️ AWS was the fastest-growing segment in fiscal 2025 with 19.7% expansion, outpacing North America's 10.0% growth.

πŸ“‰ Management guidance for the quarter ending September 2026 expects revenue growth of 9% to 12%, below the recent annualized pace.

πŸ” Modeling suggests Amazon stock could be worth 34.7% more in three years if the P/E multiple remains at current levels.

⚠️ The diluted share count rose 4.3% over the three years to June 2026, which dilutes per-share gains from revenue growth.

πŸ“‰ Operating margins stand at 12.1% today, up from a 9.0% average between June 2023 and March 2026.

πŸ—“οΈ The next critical data point is the earnings report expected on or around October 28, 2026.

Bullish Signals
  • Amazon stock trades at a P/E multiple of 20.5x, which is significantly below its historical average of 41.2x, suggesting potential undervaluation.
  • Net income for the quarter ended June 2026 reached $62.6 billion, demonstrating strong profitability that exceeded operating income of $27.5 billion.
  • Revenue growth accelerated to 19.6% in the quarter ended June 2026, outpacing the twelve-month average of 15.8%.
  • AWS expanded by 19.7% in fiscal 2025, serving as the primary engine for segment growth compared to North America's 10.0% expansion.
  • Current operating margins of 12.1% are elevated compared to the 9.0% average recorded between June 2023 and March 2026.
Risk Factors
  • Management guidance for the quarter ending September 2026 projects revenue growth of 9% to 12%, which is lower than the recent annualized growth pace.
  • The diluted share count increased by 4.3% over the three years to June 2026, which will dilute per-share gains from future revenue expansion.
  • Revenue growth could decelerate significantly, potentially falling to 2.7% annually before the stock generates a positive return over a three-year holding period.
Full Analysis
Amazon.com (AMZN) stock is currently trading at a price-to-earnings multiple of 20.5x based on twelve-month earnings through June 2026, which significantly undercuts the company's historical average of 41.2x. The article highlights that net income for the quarter ended in June 2026 reached $62.6 billion, substantially exceeding operating income of $27.5 billion due to non-operating contributions. This valuation gap suggests the market may be underpricing the company relative to its recent performance and historical norms. Analyst modeling indicates that if Amazon maintains its current P/E multiple while growing revenue slightly slower than the recent 15.8% annual pace, the stock could appreciate approximately 34.7% over a three-year horizon. This projected gain is driven entirely by business expansion rather than a multiple expansion, as the scenario assumes operating margins stabilize near current levels of 12.1% compared to a lower historical average. The analysis posits that AWS will likely need to carry most of the growth load given International segment performance. The article identifies key risks including potential deceleration in revenue growth and compression in operating margins, which could see earnings per share diluted by a 4.3% increase in the diluted share count over the past three years. Management has provided guidance for the quarter ending September 2026, expecting revenue growth between 9% and 12%, which falls below the modeled annual scenario pace. Investors are advised to monitor the upcoming earnings report expected around October 28, 2026, as a critical indicator of whether recent high-growth trends can be sustained.