Amgen Inc.

(NASDAQ Global Select)
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Slightly Bullish +25

Is Amgen Stock Increasing Your Market Risk?

Earnings report AI-generated analysis

πŸ“‰ Amgen captured about two-thirds of the S&P 500's gains while absorbing only about a quarter of its losses over the past year to October 15, 2026.

πŸ“Š The stock exhibited an annual volatility of 29.4% in the past year, significantly higher than the index's 12.7%, with price swings largely independent of broader market moves.

πŸ’Š Sales of legacy drugs Prolia and XGEVA fell 33% in fiscal Q2 2026 as rival biosimilar competitors entered the market.

πŸš€ The six key growth drivers for Amgen grew together by 26% in fiscal Q2 2026, offsetting declines in legacy product sales.

🏭 Amgen is scaling up manufacturing capabilities to support the upcoming launch of MariTide, a new monthly or less frequent obesity therapy.

πŸ“ˆ Over the past five years, Amgen returned 19.4% annually compared to 13.4% for the S&P 500, with volatility-adjusted returns nearly identical to the index.

Bullish Signals
  • The stock captured about two-thirds of the broader market's gains while absorbing only about a quarter of its losses over the past year.
  • Sales of the six key growth drivers grew 26% in fiscal Q2 2026, demonstrating successful expansion in core therapeutic areas.
  • The company is actively scaling manufacturing for MariTide, positioning itself to launch a new monthly or less frequent obesity therapy.
Risk Factors
  • Sales of legacy drugs Prolia and XGEVA fell 33% from a year earlier in fiscal Q2 2026 due to the launch of biosimilar competitors.
  • The stock's annual volatility stood at 29.4% over the past year, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 12.7%, indicating substantial price swings independent of market trends.
  • During March 2026, Amgen lost about $935 on a $10,000 holding (a 9.4% fall), which was close to twice the decline of the S&P 500 during that month.
Full Analysis
Amgen (AMGN) has demonstrated a distinct decoupling from the broader S&P 500 index over the past year, capturing roughly two-thirds of market gains while absorbing only about a quarter of losses. Despite this relative downside protection during average down days, the stock's volatility remains significantly higher than the index at 29.4% annually, indicating that its price swings are largely driven by company-specific factors rather than general market movements. Financial performance highlights a transition period for the biopharmaceutical giant, with sales of legacy drugs Prolia and XGEVA falling 33% in fiscal Q2 2026 due to biosimilar competition. Conversely, the six key growth drivers grew by 26% during the same quarter, signaling a strategic shift where future revenue depends on the successful replacement of declining legacy products with newer therapies. The company is heavily investing in scaling manufacturing for MariTide, aiming to launch it as a monthly or less frequent obesity therapy. While Amgen has historically compensated investors for its higher volatility with returns of 19.4% annually over five years versus 13.4% for the S&P 500, analysts note that this extra return roughly matches the added risk, suggesting the stock is fairly priced relative to its turbulence. Looking ahead, the crucial metric for investors will be whether Amgen can successfully replace lost sales from legacy drugs with revenue from newer treatments like MariTide. The company's ability to execute this transition without adding excessive portfolio risk remains a key consideration for shareholders holding positions alongside broad market exposure.