What Could Stall AbbVie Stock's Run?
π AbbVie stock returned 38.4% over the past twelve months, closing just 1.2% below its yearly high on November 6.
β οΈ Management identified a specific headwind beginning in 2027: the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) price cap on psychiatry drug Vraylar.
π Vraylar global sales reached nearly $1.1 billion in fiscal Q3 2026, marking a 14.3% increase year-over-year.
π Imbruvica sales fell 26.1% in fiscal Q3 2026 due to IRA pricing and competitive share pressure, serving as a precedent for Vraylar.
βοΈ A federal district court ruled in AbbVie's favor regarding Botox Therapeutic, stating the drug cannot be selected for IRA pricing due to its human serum albumin ingredient.
π Total revenue rose 10.3% in fiscal Q3 2026 despite a contraction in Imbruvica sales.
π° Skyrizi and Rinvoq generated $17.6 billion and $8.3 billion respectively in fiscal 2025, reflecting increases of 49.9% and 39.1%.
π AbbVie stock dropped only 13.0% during the 2025 tariff shock compared to a 19.0% decline for the S&P 500 index.
π¦ The stock trades at 49.8 times its last twelve months of earnings, significantly higher than the S&P 500's 21.8x multiple.
π Investors will watch Vraylar sales and fourth-quarter guidance when AbbVie reports in February 2027.
- AbbVie stock returned 38.4% over the past twelve months, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 9.8% return.
- Vraylar global sales reached nearly $1.1 billion in fiscal Q3 2026, marking a strong 14.3% year-over-year increase.
- Total revenue rose 10.3% in fiscal Q3 2026 even as the cancer drug Imbruvica experienced sales declines.
- Skyrizi and Rinvoq, the company's two largest drugs, brought in $17.6 billion and $8.3 billion respectively in fiscal 2025 with double-digit growth.
- A federal district court ruled in AbbVie's favor regarding Botox Therapeutic, preventing an immediate IRA price selection for the product.
- The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will impose a price cap on Vraylar starting in 2027, creating a specific headwind for future revenue.
- Imbruvica sales fell 26.1% in fiscal Q3 2026 due to IRA pricing and competitive share pressure, setting a precedent for Vraylar's future performance.
- AbbVie trades at 49.8 times its last twelve months of earnings, a valuation significantly higher than the S&P 500's 21.8x multiple.
- Reported earnings run well below the company's adjusted measure, adding complexity to the stock's current valuation metrics.