Vistra Corp.

New York Stock Exchange
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Somewhat Bullish +35

Vistra (VST) Stock Rises as Peter Thiel’s Fund Reveals $59M Position

AI-generated analysis

📈 Vistra stock climbed 3.5% to $149.27 after Thiel Macro LLC revealed a $59.1 million holding of 372,755 shares at the end of Q2 2026.

💰 The company reported a significant earnings miss with EPS of $0.76 versus a $1.61 consensus and revenue of $4.02 billion against $5.46 billion expectations.

📊 Wall Street maintains a 'Moderate Buy' consensus rating with an average price target of $223.53, significantly higher than the current trading price.

🏦 BlackRock acquired a new position worth approximately $4.61 billion in Q2, while Appaloosa holdings increased by about 10% to 2.22 million shares.

⚡ Vistra is positioned as a key player in the debate over power scarcity for AI data centers, potentially offering better cash flow conversion than peers.

📉 The stock trades at roughly 15.8 times forward earnings, which is a discount compared to Constellation Energy's 22.9 times multiple.

💸 Vistra declared a quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share with an annualized yield of approximately 0.6%.

📉 Short interest stands near 9.64 million shares, representing about 2.9% of the float with 1.9 days to cover.

🔮 Analysts expect full-year EPS to reach $9.21 for the current fiscal year despite recent quarterly underperformance.

Bullish Signals
  • Vistra stock rose 3.5% following the disclosure of a significant $59.1 million position held by Peter Thiel's hedge fund, Thiel Macro LLC.
  • Wall Street maintains a 'Moderate Buy' consensus rating with an average price target of $223.53, implying substantial upside from current levels.
  • Major institutional investors like BlackRock increased their stakes by approximately $4.61 billion in Q2, signaling strong confidence in the company's long-term prospects.
  • Analysts argue the market may be underpricing Vistra's ability to convert AI data center demand into EBITDA and free cash flow growth.
  • The company trades at a valuation discount of roughly 15.8 times forward earnings compared to peer Constellation Energy, which trades at 22.9 times.
Risk Factors
  • Vistra reported a significant earnings miss with EPS of $0.76 falling well short of the $1.61 analyst consensus expectation.
  • Revenue came in at $4.02 billion, substantially missing the $5.46 billion expectations set by Wall Street analysts.
Full Analysis
Vistra Corp. (VST) shares rose 3.5% to $149.27 following the disclosure that Peter Thiel's Thiel Macro LLC holds a $59.1 million position in the company, valued at roughly 372,755 shares as of Q2 2026. Despite this institutional interest, Vistra reported a significant earnings miss for the quarter, with EPS of $0.76 falling well short of the $1.61 analyst consensus and revenue of $4.02 billion missing expectations of $5.46 billion. Wall Street sentiment remains broadly positive despite the recent financial results, with a 'Moderate Buy' consensus rating supported by an average price target of $223.53. Major institutions like BlackRock have increased their stakes, acquiring approximately $4.61 billion in Q2, while Appaloosa holdings rose 10%. The company operates within a strategic narrative regarding power scarcity for AI data centers, with analysts suggesting the market may be underpricing Vistra's potential to convert this demand into EBITDA and free cash flow growth. Vistra trades at roughly 15.8 times forward earnings, presenting a valuation discount compared to Constellation Energy which trades at 22.9 times. The company declared a quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share with an annualized yield of around 0.6%. While the debt-to-equity ratio stands at 5.87 and short interest is near 2.9% of float, analysts expect full-year EPS to reach $9.21 for the current fiscal year.