Vistra Corp.

New York Stock Exchange
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Neutral +5

Is Trending Stock Vistra Corp. (VST) a Buy Now?

AI-generated analysis

📉 Vistra Corp. shares fell -10.4% over the past month, significantly underperforming the S&P 500's +8.8% gain.

🏭 The utility sector lost 4.2% during this same period, contributing to Vistra's negative return.

💰 Analysts project earnings per share of $2.18 for the current quarter, representing an 115.8% increase year-over-year.

📊 Over the last 30 days, the consensus earnings estimate changed by -3.6% compared to the previous month's data.

💵 Full-year consensus earnings are estimated at $9.16, showing a 74.1% growth rate from the prior fiscal year.

🚀 The next fiscal year earnings estimate of $11.44 suggests a 24.8% increase compared to last year's projections.

📈 Vistra reported revenues of $5.64 billion in the most recent quarter, beating the consensus by 3.54%.

💹 Earnings surprise was substantial at +29.86%, with EPS of $2.87 versus $0.46 a year ago.

🏆 The company surpassed EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters compared to topping revenue once.

⚖️ Vistra is graded a B on the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating it is trading at a discount to its peers.

🛡️ Despite strong fundamentals, the stock holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), suggesting neutral performance relative to the broader market.

🔍 Revenue estimates for the current fiscal year stand at $24 billion with a 35.3% year-over-year growth change.

💰 Next fiscal year sales are projected to reach $25.4 billion, reflecting a 5.8% increase from prior expectations.

🌐 The fair value of the stock is believed to be driven primarily by the present value of future earnings streams.

📅 Recent media rumors or business prospect changes typically lead to immediate price adjustments in trending stocks.

🧠 Research indicates a strong correlation between trends in earnings estimate revisions and near-term stock price movements.

🎯 A Zacks Investment Research report lists Vistra as one of 7 best stocks for the next 30 days in a free download offer.

⚠️ Investors should consider valuation metrics like P/E, P/S, and P/CF alongside earnings estimates when making buy decisions.

Bullish Signals
  • Vistra reported revenues of $5.64 billion in the last quarter, representing a strong year-over-year change of +43.4%.
  • The company significantly beat consensus estimates with a revenue surprise of +3.54% and an EPS surprise of +29.86%.
  • Vistra has topped consensus EPS estimates three times over the last four quarters, demonstrating consistent earnings performance.
  • For the current fiscal year, the consensus earnings estimate stands at $9.16, pointing to a change of +74.1% from the prior year.
  • Forward sales estimates for the next fiscal year are at $25.4 billion, indicating projected growth of +5.8%.
  • Vistra is graded B on the Zacks Value Style Score, indicating it is trading at a discount to its peers.
Risk Factors
  • Vistra Corp. stock has significantly underperformed the broader market, returning -10.4% over the past month while the S&P 500 gained +8.8%, and trailing the utility sector's -4.2% decline.
  • The Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) suggests the stock may only perform in line with the broader market in the near term, limiting upside potential despite recent buzz.
  • Revenue estimates are decelerating significantly, with projected growth dropping from +45.8% in the current quarter to just +5.8% over the next fiscal year, indicating slowing business momentum.
  • Vistra topped consensus revenue estimates only once out of the last four quarters, showing inconsistent ability to beat sales forecasts compared to earnings performance.
  • Despite being graded a B on valuation metrics relative to peers, Vistra trades at a discount which may not be justified given its current growth trajectory and recent underperformance.
Full Analysis
Vistra Corp. (VST) shares have declined 10.4% over the past month, underperforming both the S&P 500 Composite Index, which rose 8.8%, and the Zacks Utility-Electric Power industry index, which fell 4.2%. Analysts are currently focusing on fundamental earnings projections as a primary driver for fair value, noting that a recent 3.6% downward revision to the quarterly earnings estimate has resulted in a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating for the stock. Despite the rating suggesting future performance may align with the broader market, the company maintains strong revenue growth expectations. Earnings estimates show significant projected growth across multiple timeframes. For the current quarter, analysts expect $2.18 per share in earnings, representing an 115.8% increase from the year-ago quarter, while quarterly consensus sales are estimated at $6.2 billion, up 45.8% year-over-year. Annual projections indicate a fiscal year earnings estimate of $9.16 and sales of $24 billion, both reflecting substantial growth compared to the prior year. Long-term outlooks remain positive, with next fiscal year earnings projected at $11.44 and revenue estimated at $25.4 billion. Recent quarterly performance has exceeded expectations for profitability, though total revenue slightly trailed forecasts. For the last reported quarter, Vistra posted actual EPS of $2.87 compared to a consensus estimate of $0.46 a year prior, resulting in a positive earnings surprise of 29.86%. Revenue for that same period reached $5.64 billion, beating the consensus of $5.45 billion by 3.54%, though the company missed revenue targets only once over the last four quarters while surpassing EPS estimates three times. Valuation analysis assigns Vistra a Zacks Value Style Score of B, indicating the stock trades at a discount relative to its peers when considering traditional and unconventional valuation metrics such as price-to-earnings, price-to-sales, and price-to-cash flow ratios.