Vistra Corp.

New York Stock Exchange
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Slightly Bullish +18

Vistra Corp. (VST) Earnings Expected to Grow: What to Know Ahead of Next Week's Release

AI-generated analysis

📅 Vistra Corp. (VST) is expected to report quarterly earnings on May 7 for the period ended March 2026.

🚀 The market anticipates year-over-year earnings growth with consensus EPS estimates at $1.39 per share.

💰 Revenue is forecasted to reach $5.41 billion, representing a 37.7% increase from the previous year's quarter.

📉 Analyst estimates have been revised downward by 3.33% over the last 30 days, reflecting increased bearishness.

⚖️ The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates a negative reading of -23.60% for Vistra based on recent analyst revisions.

🏆 Vistra currently holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), which limits the ability to predict an earnings beat with confidence.

📊 Historical data shows Vistra missed estimates last quarter by 13.15%, having beaten expectations only twice in the last four quarters.

⚠️ Stock price movement will depend heavily on management's discussion of business conditions during the earnings call.

⚡ Zacks research notes that negative Earnings ESP readings do not definitively indicate an earnings miss but make prediction difficult.

💼 Analysts suggest utilizing the Earnings ESP Filter to uncover stocks with higher odds of beating expectations before earnings releases.

🔎 Investors are advised to consider non-earnings factors when deciding on a position in Vistra ahead of the report.

📜 MGE Energy Inc. (MGEE), a peer in the same industry, is also expected to report with EPS of $1.13 for Q1 2026.

📈 MGE's consensus EPS estimate has been revised up by 1.3% over the last 30 days.

🛑 MGEE carries a Zacks Rank of #3 and an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, making it similarly difficult to predict an earnings beat.

📅 Over the last four quarters, MGE has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times.

🔗 Free stock analysis reports for Vistra Corp. and MGE Energy are available through Zacks Investment Research.

📰 This article originally appeared on Zacks Investment Research, a provider of financial data and recommendations.

Bullish Signals
  • Vistra Corp. (VST) is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings and revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended March 2026.
  • Earnings are projected at $1.39 per share, representing a significant +202.2% year-over-year change.
  • Revenues are expected to reach $5.41 billion, marking a strong 37.7% increase from the year-ago quarter.
  • The Zacks Earnings ESP model indicates that stocks with positive readings combined with a Zacks Rank of #1, #2, or #3 produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time.
  • Despite current bearish revisions, Vistra maintains a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), which is associated with strong predictive power for earnings beats when paired with a positive Earnings ESP.
  • Investors can utilize the proprietary Zacks Earnings ESP Filter to uncover best stocks to buy before earnings releases.
Risk Factors
  • Analysts have recently become bearish on Vistra's earnings prospects, as the Most Accurate Estimate is lower than the consensus estimate, resulting in a negative Earnings ESP of -23.60%.
  • The combination of a negative Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank of #3 makes it difficult to predict that Vistra will beat its consensus EPS estimate for the quarter ended March 2026.
  • For the last reported quarter, Vistra missed consensus expectations, producing earnings of $2.18 per share against an expected $2.51 per share, resulting in a surprise of -13.15%.
  • Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates only two times, indicating a history of missing or struggling to meet analyst expectations.
  • A negative Earnings ESP reading is generally not indicative of an earnings beat, making it difficult to predict positive surprises for stocks with this metric or a Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
  • Many stocks end up losing ground despite earning beats due to other disappointing factors, suggesting that even if Vistra meets expectations, its stock price may not necessarily move higher.
  • The consensus EPS estimate has been revised 3.33% lower over the last 30 days, reflecting analysts reassessing their initial estimates in a more negative light.
Full Analysis
The article outlines analyst expectations for Vistra Corp. (VST) ahead of its quarterly earnings report, which is scheduled to be released on May 7 for the quarter ended March 2026. Market consensus anticipates a year-over-year increase in earnings driven by higher revenues, with expected quarterly earnings of $1.39 per share, representing a significant 202.2% increase from the prior year. Revenue is projected to reach $5.41 billion, marking a 37.7% rise compared to the same quarter last year. However, the consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 3.33% over the past 30 days, reflecting recent analyst reassessments of the company's prospects. A key analytical tool discussed is the Zacks Earnings ESP, which compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate to predict earnings surprises. For Vistra, this comparison reveals a negative Earnings ESP of -23.60%, indicating that analysts have recently become more bearish than the consensus average suggests. Although Vistra holds a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), which is typically associated with a higher probability of beating estimates when paired with a positive Earnings ESP, the combination of a negative ESP and a Hold rank makes it difficult to predict whether the company will beat the consensus. Consequently, analysts do not currently consider Vistra a compelling candidate for an earnings beat based on these metrics alone. Historical data further complicates the outlook, as Vistra missed expectations in its last reported quarter with actual earnings of $2.18 per share versus an expectation of $2.51, resulting in a surprise of -13.15%. The company has only beaten consensus estimates two times out of the last four quarters. While earnings surprises can influence stock prices, the article notes that other factors often drive market movements regardless of whether expectations are met or missed. In addition to Vistra, the article briefly mentions MGE Energy Inc. (MGEE), a peer in the Utility - Electric Power industry expected to report $1.13 EPS for the same period with revenues of $227.06 million, though its predictive indicators similarly suggest uncertainty regarding an earnings beat.