TSLA Inc.

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Slightly Bullish +15

Tesla vs. Rivian: Which Stock Will Outperform The Market In 2026

📉 Tesla Q4 deliveries fell 16% to 418,227 units in 2025.

💰 Tesla gross margin expanded 386 bps to 20.1%.

⚡ Tesla energy deployments hit record 14.2 GWh with +25% revenue.

🤖 Tesla FSD subscriptions reached 1.1 million, up 38%.

🚀 Tesla plans Cybercab production in seven US cities for H1 2026.

📉 Tesla vehicle deliveries fell 16% year-over-year to 418,227 units in Q4 2025, extending a delivery slump.

💰 Tesla gross margin expanded significantly by 386 basis points to reach 20.1% despite lower volume.

⚡ Tesla's energy segment posted record Q4 deployments of 14.2 GWh with revenue up 25% year-over-year.

🤖 Tesla Full Self-Driving subscriptions reached 1.1 million, growing 38% year-over-year to Q4 2025.

📈 Rivian software and services revenue surged 109% year-over-year to $447 million driven by the VW joint venture.

🚗 Rivian automotive revenue dropped 45% year-over-year to $839 million due to regulatory credit expiration.

🏭 Rivian crossed its first full year of positive gross profit despite a messy Q4 financial report.

🚀 Tesla plans Cybercab volume production and Robotaxi expansion in Dallas, Houston, Phoenix, Miami, Orlando, Tampa, and Las Vegas for H1 2026.

📅 Prediction markets assign only a 12.5% probability to a California robotaxi launch by June 30, 2026.

🚙 Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe highlighted early strong reviews of the R2 pre-production builds targeting customers next quarter.

💵 Rivian guides for 62,000 to 67,000 vehicle deliveries in 2026 with the R2 as the primary driver.

🏭 The R2 ramp at the Normal, Illinois facility is critical for Rivian's near-term success and cash flow stability.

⚠️ Prediction markets assign a 34.5% probability to Rivian announcing bankruptcy before 2027 due to cash burn concerns.

📉 Tesla trading at a trailing P/E near 344x is priced for future robotaxi and robot profits that have not yet materialized.

🔋 Rivian carries a high-risk profile with significant cash burn and a thin margin for error regarding the R2 launch.

Bullish Signals
  • Tesla gross margin rose 386 bps to 20.1% amid delivery slump.
  • Tesla energy deployments hit record 14.2 GWh with 25% revenue growth.
  • Rivian achieved first full year of positive gross profit.
  • Rivian software revenue surged 109% to $447 million.
  • Tesla FSD subscriptions grew 38% to 1.1 million units.
  • Rivian R2 targets $45,000 price point with 300+ mile range.
Risk Factors
  • Tesla deliveries fell 16% YoY to 418,227 units.
  • Rivian revenue dropped 45% YoY to $839 million.
  • Only 12.5% chance Tesla launches robotaxi by June 2026.
  • Rivian faces 34.5% bankruptcy risk before 2027 with -$2.49B cash flow.
  • Tesla trades at 344x P/E, risking high valuation if profits fail.
Bullish Signals
  • Tesla successfully expanded its gross margin by 386 basis points to 20.1% while navigating a delivery slump, proving pricing power.
  • Tesla's energy segment achieved record Q4 deployments of 14.2 GWh and revenue growth of 25%, diversifying revenue away from pure vehicle sales.
  • Rivian has crossed its first full year of positive gross profit, signaling improved cost structure despite lower automotive revenue.
  • Rivian's software and services revenue surged 109% to $447 million, creating a high-margin revenue stream independent of regulatory credits.
  • Tesla's Full Self-Driving subscriptions grew 38% year-over-year to 1.1 million, validating its software monetization strategy.
  • Rivian's R2 vehicle targets a far larger market with a $45,000 price point and over 300 miles of range, potentially driving transformational growth.
Risk Factors
  • Tesla vehicle deliveries fell 16% year-over-year to 418,227 units, indicating a persistent delivery slump that requires stabilization.
  • Rivian's automotive revenue dropped 45% year-over-year to $839 million due to the collapse of regulatory credit sales and expired tax credits.
  • Prediction markets assign only a 12.5% probability to Tesla launching its California robotaxi by June 30, 2026, reflecting skepticism about execution timelines.
  • Rivian faces existential risk with a 34.5% probability assigned to bankruptcy before 2027 due to negative free cash flow of $2.49 billion in 2025.
  • Tesla trades at a trailing P/E near 344x, implying high valuation risk if robotaxi and autonomy ambitions fail to generate meaningful profit soon.
Slightly Bullish +25

Tesla stock is surging around 3%, but analysts are growing cautious

📈 Tesla shares rose 2.8% to $378.06 in early Monday trading.

🤖 Musk launches Terafab JV with xAI and SpaceX for chip manufacturing.

💰 Project needs tens of billions, with $20B equipment spending in 2026.

⚡ Facility targets terawatt scale output by late 2027 for AI chips.

📉 Analysts warn costs may exceed $100B long term; sell rating issued.

📈 Tesla shares rose 2.8% to $378.06 in early Monday trading amid broader market gains.

🤖 CEO Elon Musk announced 'Terafab,' a joint venture with xAI and SpaceX for large-scale semiconductor manufacturing.

💰 The project requires tens of billions in initial investment, with equipment spending projected at $20 billion in 2026.

📅 Initial production is targeted for late 2027, with volume output expected by 2028.

⚡ The facility aims to produce chips at a terawatt scale, equivalent to powering one billion advanced AI chips annually.

🔬 Terafab will focus on cutting-edge two-nanometer chip technology for autonomous vehicles and robotics.

🚀 Up to 80% of the facility's output could be deployed in space for SpaceX AI computing workloads.

📉 Analyst Trip Chowdhry issued a sell recommendation with a $150 price target for 2026.

⚠️ Barclays maintained an Equalweight rating but warned costs could significantly exceed current expectations.

💸 Some analysts estimate capital expenditure requirements could exceed $100 billion over the long term.

Bullish Signals
  • Tesla shares surge 2.8% to $378.06.
  • Terafab secures chip supply for AI and autonomous driving.
  • Project targets cutting-edge two-nanometer technology.
  • Up to 80% output planned for space-based computing.
  • Bullish investors see capex as necessary for AI leadership.
Risk Factors
  • Analyst sell target: $150 for 2026.
  • Terafab project costs could exceed expectations.
  • Capex may exceed $100 billion over time.
  • Enthusiasm may outpace execution like past cycles.
Bullish Signals
  • Tesla shares are surging 2.8% to $378.06, indicating strong early trading momentum despite broader market volatility.
  • The Terafab initiative represents a strategic vertical integration of chip production to secure supply for AI and autonomous driving.
  • The project targets cutting-edge two-nanometer technology, positioning Tesla at the forefront of semiconductor manufacturing.
  • A significant portion of output (up to 80%) is planned for space-based computing, diversifying revenue streams beyond Earth.
  • Bullish investors view the massive capital expenditure as a necessary investment to maintain long-term leadership in AI infrastructure.
Risk Factors
  • Analyst Trip Chowdhry issued a sell recommendation with a $150 price target for 2026, arguing the AI-driven investment thesis has weakened.
  • Barclays warned that the actual cost of the Terafab project could be significantly higher than current expectations.
  • Capital expenditure requirements are estimated by some analysts to potentially exceed $100 billion over time.
  • Investor enthusiasm may outpace execution, a pattern observed in past technology cycles according to analyst Trip Chowdhry.
Slightly Bearish -20

Lucid (LCID) and Rivian (RIVN) Stocks Jump as Oil Rises but Tesla (TSLA) Stock Lags

📈 Lucid and Rivian stocks jumped as oil hit $86/barrel.

💰 Lucid posted Q4 2025 revenue of $522.73M with -$1.24B cash flow.

🚀 Rivian achieved positive gross profit and saw software revenue jump 109%.

⚖️ Tesla faces FSD federal probe, trading flat at $399.20.

🇨🇳 BYD imports to Canada with new flash-charging tech.

📈 Lucid (LCID) and Rivian (RIVN) stocks jumped sharply on Monday as WTI crude oil prices surged to $86 per barrel due to Middle East geopolitical tensions.

📉 Tesla (TSLA) lagged behind peers, trading flat at $399.20 despite the oil price spike that typically benefits the EV sector.

💰 Lucid Group reported Q4 2025 revenue of $522.73 million but incurred a cost of revenue of $944.64 million and negative free cash flow of -$1.24 billion.

🚀 Rivian achieved its first full year of positive gross profit with $120 million in Q4 2025 and saw software revenue jump 109% to $447 million.

⚖️ A federal probe into Tesla's Full Self-Driving (FSD) system for alleged traffic violations is weighing heavily on investor sentiment.

🇨🇳 Chinese EV manufacturer BYD filed paperwork to import vehicles to Canada and launched five-minute flash-charging technology, increasing competitive pressure.

📊 Analyst consensus target for Lucid is $13.85 with mixed ratings (one buy, seven hold, two sell), suggesting today's move is a short-term bounce.

🔻 UBS downgraded Rivian to Sell in January 2026 with a price target of $15, though the stock currently trades above that level at $15.82.

📉 Tesla is down 11.23% year-to-date in 2026, marking its first significant decline despite a long-term track record of being up over 2,700% in 10 years.

🌍 Rising oil prices toward $90-$100 per barrel are creating a divergence where EV peers rally while Tesla faces company-specific regulatory and competitive risks.

Bullish Signals
  • Generated $120M gross profit in Q4 2025.
  • Software revenue surged 109% YoY to $447M.
  • Stock gained 41.76% over the past year.
  • Oil at $86/barrel boosts EV relative value.
  • Amazon partnership differentiates commercial EV strategy.
Risk Factors
  • Costs of revenue $944.64M vs revenue $522.73M in Q4 2025.
  • Burned -$1.24B free cash flow in Q4 2025.
  • Stock shed nearly 96% value over five years.
  • Tesla FSD faces federal investigation for alleged traffic violations.
  • BYD imports EVs to Canada and rolled out flash-charging.
Bullish Signals
  • Rivian Automotive posted its first full year of positive gross profit, generating $120 million in Q4 2025, marking a significant turnaround from previous cash-burning periods.
  • Rivian's software and services revenue surged 109% year-over-year to $447 million in Q4 2025, driven by high-margin streams including the Volkswagen joint venture.
  • Rivian stock has been a relative outperformer among EV peers, gaining 7.79% over the past month and 41.76% over the past year.
  • The surge in oil prices to $86 per barrel provides a short-term macro tailwind for all three EV manufacturers by increasing the relative value of electric vehicles.
  • Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe is focusing on the commercial EV market, leveraging its key partnership with Amazon for delivery vans as a differentiator.
Risk Factors
  • Lucid Group is spending nearly twice what it earns on every vehicle sold, with Q4 2025 costs of revenue at $944.64 million against $522.73 million in revenue.
  • Lucid Group burned -$1.24 billion in free cash flow during Q4 2025 alone, indicating severe liquidity pressures and a heavy reliance on Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund.
  • Lucid stock has shed nearly 96% of its value over five years, dropping from a peak near $247 per share to trade around $10.48.
  • Tesla faces a new federal investigation into its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system for alleged traffic violations, creating regulatory overhang that dampens sentiment.
  • BYD is intensifying competition by filing paperwork to import EVs to Canada and recently rolled out five-minute flash-charging battery technology.
  • Reddit sentiment regarding Tesla includes concerns about SpaceX and Elon Musk's political exposure, which may deter retail investors.
Somewhat Bearish -45

Tesla stock: why three big banks are turning bearish on TSLA

📉 JPMorgan downgraded Tesla to Underweight with a $145 price target.

💸 Tesla plans roughly $20 billion in capital expenditure for 2026.

📊 Q4 revenue fell 3% while net income dropped 46%.

🏦 Morgan Stanley downgraded to Equal Weight with a $425 target.

🇨🇳 Phillip Securities maintains a Sell rating due to market losses.

📉 JPMorgan downgraded Tesla to Underweight with a $145 price target, implying 63% downside from current levels.

💸 Tesla plans roughly $20 billion in capital expenditure for 2026, more than double its prior year spending.

📊 Q4 revenue fell 3% year-over-year to $24.9 billion, while net income dropped 46% to $3.8 billion for FY2025.

🏦 Morgan Stanley downgraded from Overweight to Equal Weight with a $425 price target, citing overvaluation of future catalysts.

🇨🇳 Phillip Securities maintains a Sell rating due to the loss of US EV tax credits and a collapse in China's market share.

🤖 Analysts note that autonomous driving and robotics revenue contributions remain realistically five years away from meaningful impact.

📉 JPMorgan cut delivery growth forecasts from 10% to just 5% for 2026 due to Q4 earnings deterioration.

🔍 Morgan Stanley's new analyst Andrew Percoco used a sum-of-the-parts model concluding all positive catalysts are priced in.

⚖️ MarketBeat composite sits at Hold with an average target around $410, reflecting 17 Buy ratings against 8 Sells.

Bullish Signals
  • Trading down less than 2% despite bearish analyst moves.
  • 17 Buy ratings versus only 8 Sells on MarketBeat.
  • Morgan Stanley maintains positive view on Tesla's long-term potential.
  • Investing heavily in robotaxi and Optimus for growth.
Risk Factors
  • Zero free cash flow projected for 2026 and 2027.
  • Q4 revenue declined 3% year-over-year to $24.9 billion.
  • Net income fell 46% from $7.08B to $3.8B.
  • Delivery estimate 13% below consensus due to EV concerns.
  • Loss of US EV tax credits and rising tariffs.
  • China market share collapse hinders global growth strategy.
Bullish Signals
  • Tesla stock is trading down less than 2% despite the bearish analyst moves, suggesting retail investors are standing firm.
  • The broader consensus remains mixed-to-positive, with MarketBeat's composite showing 17 Buy ratings against only 8 Sells.
  • Morgan Stanley's new analyst Andrew Percoco still maintains a positive view on Tesla's long-term potential despite the downgrade.
  • Tesla continues to invest heavily in future technologies like robotaxi and Optimus, indicating confidence in long-term growth.
Risk Factors
  • JPMorgan projects zero free cash flow for both 2026 and 2027 due to heavy capital expenditure plans.
  • Q4 revenue declined 3% year-over-year to $24.9 billion, signaling potential demand weakness.
  • Net income fell 46% year-over-year on a full-year basis, dropping from $7.08 billion in FY2024 to $3.8 billion in FY2025.
  • Morgan Stanley's delivery estimate for 2026 sits 13% below Wall Street consensus due to cautious views on US EV adoption and competition.
  • Phillip Securities cites the loss of US EV tax credits and rising tariffs as near-term pain points with no immediate offset.
  • China's market share collapse is identified as a significant headwind for Tesla's global growth strategy.
Somewhat Bearish -35

BYD Sales Collapse. What About Tesla?

📉 BYD February sales dropped 41% to 190,190 units globally.

🇨🇳 China: BYD domestic sales fell 65% while exports rose 50%.

🏭 Reuters estimates 129 EV brands now compete in the Chinese market.

📊 Tesla's China market share dropped to 8% and Model Y rank hit 20th.

🌍 Tesla faces global sales declines as BYD expands in Europe.

📉 BYD reported a 41% year-on-year drop in February sales, totaling 190,190 units.

🇨🇳 Domestic Chinese sales for BYD fell by 65%, while export sales surged by 50%.

🏭 Reuters estimates there are currently 129 EV brands competing in the Chinese market.

📊 Tesla's overall market share in China has dropped to approximately 8%.

🚗 Tesla's Model Y rank fell to 20th among all brands in the Chinese market.

🇪🇺 EU sales for Tesla have declined by double digits over the past year.

📈 BYD sales in the EU have increased by double digits during the same period.

🛡️ Tesla maintains about 50% market share in the US, aided by a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs.

🌍 Tesla's global unit sales are currently trending downward across all major regions.

Bullish Signals
  • BYD export sales surged 50% despite domestic struggles.
  • Tesla holds dominant 50% US market share.
  • Intense China competition may consolidate market for leaders.
Risk Factors
  • BYD domestic sales collapsed 65%.
  • Tesla Model Y market share dropped to 20th place.
  • Tesla EU sales declined double-digits for nearly a year.
  • 129 EV brands in China suggest unsustainable environment.
  • BYD expensive new models may strain resources.
Bullish Signals
  • BYD export sales surged by 50% despite domestic struggles, indicating strong international demand for its vehicles.
  • Tesla maintains a dominant 50% market share in the US market, supported by protective tariffs on Chinese competitors.
  • The intense competition in China may eventually force weaker players out, potentially consolidating the market for established leaders like Tesla and BYD.
Risk Factors
  • BYD's domestic sales in China collapsed by 65%, signaling severe weakness in its home market.
  • Tesla's Model Y market share has dropped significantly, falling to 20th place among all brands in China.
  • Tesla faces a double-digit sales decline in the EU market for almost a year while competitors gain ground.
  • The sheer number of EV brands in China (129) suggests an unsustainable environment where many companies will likely fail.
  • BYD's need to rapidly release expensive new models may strain resources and delay immediate sales recovery.
Somewhat Bearish -35

BYD Sales Collapse. What About Tesla?

📉 BYD February sales dropped 41% to 190,190 units globally.

🇨🇳 BYD domestic China sales fell 65% while exports rose 50%.

🏭 Reuters estimates 129 EV brands are competing in the Chinese market.

📉 Tesla's global unit sales are falling across all major regions.

🚗 Tesla's Model Y rank dropped to 20th in China; EU sales declined.

📉 BYD reported a 41% year-on-year drop in February sales to 190,190 units.

🇨🇳 Domestic Chinese sales for BYD fell by 65%, while export sales surged 50%.

🏭 Reuters estimates there are currently 129 EV brands competing in the Chinese market.

📊 Tesla's overall market share in China has dropped to approximately 8%.

🚗 Tesla's Model Y rank fell to 20th among all brands in the Chinese market.

🇪🇺 EU sales for Tesla have declined double-digits for almost a year.

📈 BYD sales in the EU have increased by double-digits over the same period.

🛡️ Tesla maintains about 50% market share in the US, aided by 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs.

🌍 Tesla's global unit sales are currently falling across all major regions.

Bullish Signals
  • BYD export sales surged 50% despite domestic struggles.
  • Tesla holds dominant 50% US market share.
  • Intense China competition may consolidate market for leaders.
Risk Factors
  • BYD domestic sales collapsed 65% in February.
  • Tesla Model Y fell to 20th place in China.
  • Tesla EU sales declined with double-digit share loss.
  • 129 EV brands in China signal unsustainable market.
Bullish Signals
  • BYD export sales surged by 50% despite domestic struggles, indicating strong international demand for their vehicles.
  • Tesla maintains a dominant 50% market share in the US market, supported by protective tariffs on Chinese competitors.
  • The intense competition in China may eventually force weaker players out, potentially consolidating the market for established leaders like Tesla and BYD.
Risk Factors
  • BYD's domestic sales collapsed by 65% in February, signaling severe weakness in its core home market.
  • Tesla's Model Y market share has dropped significantly, falling to 20th place among all brands in China.
  • Tesla faces a prolonged decline in EU sales, having lost double-digit market share for nearly a year.
  • The sheer number of EV brands (129) in China suggests an unsustainable market environment that could hurt all players.
Slightly Bearish -20

Tesla stock is down, but is March 9 the date that changes everything?

📅 NHTSA deadline set for March 9, 2026 crash data submission.

🔍 Request includes video, EDR logs, and CAN bus data analysis.

🚗 Probe covers 2.88M vehicles across 58 incidents including Austin fleet.

⚖️ Investigation focuses on red light violations and driver intervention claims.

📉 Safety patterns could force Tesla to alter autonomy revenue timeline.

📅 NHTSA has set a hard deadline of March 9, 2026, for Tesla to submit detailed crash data following a second extension granted during an FSD traffic-violation investigation.

🔍 The regulatory request demands granular context including video, EDR files, and CAN bus logs to analyze software versions, warning systems, and human intervention timing.

🚗 The probe covers roughly 2.88 million vehicles linked to 58 incidents, with a specific focus on 14 crashes involving the Austin robotaxi fleet since June 2025.

⚖️ Regulators are investigating claims that FSD vehicles ran red lights or crossed lanes, seeking to determine if systems were at fault or if drivers intervened effectively.

📉 A messy filing revealing repeatable safety patterns could force Tesla to slow expansion or alter its autonomy revenue timeline.

🛡️ An orderly and complete submission would support the bull case that robotaxi remains a viable growth lever despite core EV competition.

🚑 Recent data shows five incidents in December and January involved property damage with no injuries, while two earlier events resulted in minor injuries.

Bullish Signals
  • NHTSA extension until March 9 allows comprehensive response preparation.
  • Orderly filing validates autonomy narrative and supports robotaxi growth.
  • Recent five crashes involved only property damage with no injuries.
Risk Factors
  • 58 NHTSA incidents linked to FSD operation including red light runs.
  • Regulators demand granular software data exposing potential systemic flaws.
  • Data leaks could slow expansion and hurt autonomy revenue timeline.
Bullish Signals
  • Tesla successfully secured a second extension from the NHTSA to submit crash data by March 9, suggesting the company has time to prepare a comprehensive response.
  • An orderly and complete filing of critical crash data would validate Tesla's autonomy narrative and support the bull argument that robotaxi is still a viable growth lever.
  • Recent incident reports indicate that five of the most recent crashes involved only property damage with no injuries, which may mitigate immediate safety concerns.
Risk Factors
  • The NHTSA investigation links 58 incidents to FSD operation, including serious claims of running red lights and crossing into opposing lanes.
  • Regulators are demanding highly granular data on software versions and warning systems, which could expose systemic flaws if the system was clearly at fault in multiple events.
  • If the submitted data reveals repeatable safety patterns, regulators may gain leverage to slow expansion or force changes that would negatively impact Tesla's autonomy revenue timeline.