Eli Lilly and Company

🇺🇸New York Stock Exchange
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Eli Lilly and Company stock analysis LLY overview
Somewhat Bearish -35

Fast Money Panel Says Novo Nordisk Now More Compelling Than Eli Lilly After Falling 70%

📉 Novo Nordisk (NVO) has declined roughly 68% from its mid-2024 highs near $127, while Eli Lilly (LLY) continues to trade at a premium.

💊 Data suggests a prescription uptake gap for oral GLP-1s, with Novo's pill garnering over 18,000 prescriptions in the second week versus 3,700 for Lilly's newly approved Fendayo.

📊 Novo Nordisk trades at approximately 12x earnings compared to Eli Lilly's 26x to 38x valuation multiple, making it appear undervalued relative to its rival.

💰 Novo is projected to offer a 4% dividend yield and a 6.5%+ free cash flow yield in 2027, which appeals to income-focused investors despite lower growth forecasts.

📈 Eli Lilly reported Q1 2026 revenue of $19.8 billion with EPS of $8.55, though management recently raised its full-year revenue guidance.

⚠️ Novo Nordisk has lowered its sales growth guidance for 2026 to a -5% to -13% range after recording 10% constant-currency growth in 2025.

🔄 CNBC's Fast Money panel recently pivoted their stance, arguing that NVO now offers a more compelling setup than the GLP-1 category leader LLY.

💸 The performance gap between the two has narrowed significantly, with LLY turning $1 into $2.30 over three years while NVO only reached $0.48 in the same period.

🕰️ One panelist characterized Novo as a "get paid to wait" story for investors willing to endure near-term weakness for long-term dividends.

🤔 Some analysts view Novo's current opportunity as a short-term trade or catch-up play rather than a full-blown stock re-rating turnaround.

👤 An expert analyst who correctly predicted NVIDIA in 2010 recently released his top 10 stocks for 2026, and notably excluded Eli Lilly from the list.

📉 Current price performance shows NVO down 18.08% year-to-date while LLY is down 20.66%, creating similar absolute declines but different relative valuations.

Bullish Signals
  • Eli Lilly raised its full-year revenue guidance to a range of $82.0–$85.0 billion, signaling strong management confidence and execution.
  • Lilly's Q1 2026 revenue reached an impressive $19.80 billion with EPS of $8.55, demonstrating robust financial performance despite market headwinds.
  • CEO David Ricks characterized the approval of oral GLP-1 Fendayo as a "key milestone," highlighting significant progress in expanding their drug delivery options.
  • The company recently reported strong quarterly results that overshadowed concerns regarding early prescription uptake for its new oral pill.
  • With shares trading at approximately 26x earnings, Lilly maintains a premium valuation that reflects continued market dominance and strong growth expectations.
  • Over the past three years, Eli Lilly has outperformed peers significantly, turning $1 into $2.30, demonstrating superior long-term shareholder returns.
Risk Factors
  • Novo Nordisk's shares have fallen approximately 68% from its mid-2024 highs, dropping from near $127 to recent levels around $40.
  • Lilly's newly approved oral GLP-1 drug, Fendayo, received only 3,700 prescriptions in its second week compared to over 18,000 for Novo Nordisk's competing oral pill, indicating a significant uptake gap.
  • Novo Nordisk is guiding for -5% to -13% sales growth in 2026 after posting 10% constant-currency growth in 2025, signaling near-term headwinds.
  • Despite recent price action convergence where both stocks are down roughly 18-20%, Novo Nordisk trades at a discounted valuation of roughly 12x earnings versus Lilly's premium multiple closer to 38x-40x.
  • Lilly turned $1 into $2.30 over the past three years, while Novo fell to just $0.48 over the same period, creating a substantial gap in total shareholder return that investors are now questioning.
  • One panelist described the current view on Novo Nordisk as merely a 'trade' or short-term catch-up rather than a sustained re-rating, suggesting limited long-term upside potential.
Full Analysis
On CNBC's Fast Money panel, there was a significant shift in perspective regarding two major biotechnology companies, Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY), suggesting that Novo Nordisk has become more appealing to investors. This change in sentiment follows a substantial decline for Novo Nordisk, which fell approximately 68% from its mid-2024 highs near $127 to recent levels around $40. The panel highlighted that while Eli Lilly has historically outperformed significantly—turning $1 into $2.30 over the past three years versus Novo's $1 to $0.48—the convergence of their stock prices and divergent valuations are reshaping the investment landscape. A key driver for this re-evaluation was early data released on Eli Lilly's newly approved oral GLP-1 medication, Fendayo. In its second week of sales, the drug attracted roughly 3,700 prescriptions, which stood in stark contrast to Novo Nordisk's competing oral offering that garnered over 18,000 prescriptions in a similar timeframe. This significant gap in prescription uptake for Lilly’s new product provided ammunition for investors seeking value in the GLP-1 space. In contrast, Eli Lilly reported strong financial results in Q1 2026 with revenue of $19.8 billion and EPS of $8.55, along with raised guidance for full-year revenue between $82.0 billion and $85.0 billion. Valuation metrics further underscore the panel's argument that Novo Nordisk now offers a more compelling setup. Novo trades at approximately 12 times earnings compared to Eli Lilly's 26 times earnings, with some projections indicating even higher multiples like 38x for Lilly. Additionally, Novo Nordisk presents attractive income characteristics with a projected free cash flow yield of 6.5% in 2027 and a dividend yield near 4%. Conversely, despite its high growth trajectory, Lilly's stock faces pressure due to these premium multiples and the weaker initial commercial performance of its new oral formulation. Some panelists characterized Novo as a "get paid to wait" opportunity, emphasizing that the current market may be overreacting to short-term sales data from the company, which still maintains leadership in the GLP-1 market despite guiding for potential negative or low single-digit sales growth in 2026 following strong performance in 2025.