Fair Isaac Corporation

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Somewhat Bullish +45

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Gained from Strong Results and Improved Guidance

📈 Baron Asset Fund highlights FICO for strong earnings and FY26 guidance.

💰 FICO reported $512M Q1 FY26 revenue, up 16% year-over-year.

🚀 New Direct Licensing Program launched to monetize mortgage IP.

📉 Shares dropped 23.62% over last 52 weeks as of early Feb 2026.

⚖️ Fund prefers other AI stocks for higher short-term returns despite FICO risks.

📈 Baron Asset Fund highlighted Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) in its Q4 2025 letter due to strong earnings and solid preliminary fiscal year 2026 guidance.

💰 FICO reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue of $512 million, reflecting a 16% year-over-year growth.

🚀 The company launched a new Direct Licensing Program for mortgage lending to better monetize its intellectual property.

🤝 The new licensing initiative was well-received by Federal Housing Finance Agency director Bill Pulte.

📉 Despite positive news, FICO shares lost 23.62% of their value over the last 52 weeks as of early February 2026.

🏦 As of December 31, 2025, Baron Asset Fund held 53 positions with top holdings representing 52.8% of net assets.

📊 The fund views FICO as a strong earnings compounder expected to drive solid returns over a multi-year period.

⚖️ Baron Asset Fund acknowledged risks in FICO but expressed greater conviction in other AI stocks for higher short-term returns.

📉 Hedge fund holdings of FICO decreased slightly from 74 portfolios in Q3 to 72 at the end of Q3 2025.

Bullish Signals
  • Strong Q4 earnings drove stock price increases.
  • Solid FY2026 guidance indicates future confidence.
  • FICO achieved 16% revenue growth to $512M.
  • New Direct Licensing Program offers IP flexibility.
  • Viewed as a strong multi-year earnings compounder.
Risk Factors
  • Shares down 23.62% over last 52 weeks.
  • Fund prefers other AI stocks for higher returns.
Bullish Signals
  • Fair Isaac Corporation reported strong fourth-quarter earnings that drove stock price increases according to Baron Asset Fund.
  • The company provided solid preliminary guidance for fiscal year 2026, indicating confidence in future performance.
  • FICO achieved a 16% year-over-year revenue growth in the first quarter of fiscal 2026, reaching $512 million.
  • The launch of the Direct Licensing Program for mortgage lending offers new flexibility to monetize intellectual property.
  • Baron Asset Fund explicitly stated that FICO should be viewed as a strong earnings compounder for multi-year returns.
Risk Factors
  • FICO shares experienced a significant decline, losing 23.62% of their value over the last 52 weeks.
  • Baron Asset Fund expressed a preference for other AI stocks, believing they hold greater promise for delivering higher returns in a shorter timeframe.
Slightly Bullish +25

What Do Analysts Say About Fair Isaac (FICO) Following Its Solid Q1 Performance?

📉 FICO shares down 50% despite 70% bullish analyst sentiment.

💰 Billionaires invested $2.1B, labeling it a top dip stock.

⚠️ Barclays warns of AI disruption and geopolitical headwinds.

🏦 Mizuho sees mortgage demand recovery as refinancing improves.

📈 Analysts maintain Overweight ratings citing strong cash flow.

📉 FICO shares are down roughly 50% as of April 22, 2026, despite a solid Q1 performance and 70% bullish analyst sentiment projecting 52.21% upside.

💰 Billionaire investments in the stock total $2.10 billion, placing FICO on lists of best dip stocks according to wealthy investors.

⚠️ Barclays cites concerns about AI disruption and geopolitical headwinds that are not fully captured in the company's initial guidance.

📈 Barclays maintains an 'Overweight' rating on Fair Isaac Corporation despite the recent share price plunge.

🏦 Mizuho Bank suggests the market may be overestimating competition risks from VantageScore in the mortgage credit-scoring sector.

💵 FICO's strong competitive position is supported by robust free cash flow generation and significant share repurchase programs.

🔮 Demand for credit scores tied to mortgage applications could recover once mortgage refinancing activity improves, according to Mizuho.

🧠 The company operates in the analytics software space providing credit scoring services and decision management solutions.

Bullish Signals
  • 70% bullish analysts project 52.21% upside potential.
  • Billionaires invested $2.10 billion signaling confidence.
  • Strong free cash flow and share repurchases.
  • Mortgage refinancing recovery offers growth catalyst.
Risk Factors
  • Stock down 50% despite solid Q1 earnings.
  • Barclays warns guidance ignores geopolitical/AI risks.
  • VantageScore threatens mortgage credit-scoring market.
Bullish Signals
  • Approximately 70% of covering analysts remain bullish on FICO, projecting a significant upside potential of 52.21% despite recent price declines.
  • Billionaire investors have invested $2.10 billion in the stock, signaling strong confidence in its long-term value as a dip opportunity.
  • Mizuho Bank highlights the company's robust free cash flow generation and significant share repurchases as evidence of a strong competitive position.
  • Analysts believe that demand for credit scores tied to mortgage applications could recover once refinancing activity improves, offering a growth catalyst.
Risk Factors
  • The stock has declined roughly 50% as of April 22, 2026, raising questions about investor confidence despite solid Q1 earnings.
  • Barclays warns that the company's initial guidance does not fully reflect geopolitical concerns or the impact of AI disruption on its outlook.
  • Investors remain concerned about potential competition from VantageScore, particularly within the mortgage credit-scoring market segment.
Bullish +55

Assenagon Asset Management S.A. Increases Stock Holdings in Fair Isaac ...

📈 Assenagon increased FICO stake by 4.5% to 26,245 shares valued at $28 million.

🏦 Major investors including Northwestern Mutual significantly expanded FICO holdings in Q4.

📊 FICO Q1 revenue hit $691.68M, a 38.7% increase surpassing analyst expectations.

💰 EPS reached $12.50, beating the consensus estimate of $11.03 by $1.47.

🔍 Institutional ownership stands at 85.75%, reflecting strong confidence from asset managers.

📈 Assenagon Asset Management S.A. increased its FICO stake by 4.5% in Q1, adding 1,137 shares to a total holding of 26,245 shares valued at $28 million.

🏦 Major institutional investors including Northwestern Mutual, Capital World Investors, and Morgan Stanley significantly expanded their FICO holdings during the fourth quarter.

📊 FICO reported Q1 revenue of $691.68 million, a 38.7% increase year-over-year that surpassed analyst expectations of $630.21 million.

💰 The company achieved earnings per share of $12.50, beating the consensus estimate of $11.03 by $1.47.

📉 Analysts maintain a 'Moderate Buy' consensus with price targets ranging from $1,549 to $1,800 and a current average target of $1,626.50.

📈 The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 37.36 with a market capitalization of $27.35 billion.

🌍 FICO operates globally across North America, Europe, and Asia-Pacific, leveraging AI-driven solutions for financial services clients.

📉 The stock is currently trading below its 200-day moving average of $1,317.16 but above its 50-day moving average of $1,137.56.

🔍 Institutional ownership stands at 85.75%, indicating strong confidence from hedge funds and asset managers.

📅 The company has set FY 2026 guidance for EPS between 40.450 and 40.450, aligning with analyst predictions of 38.06 EPS.

Bullish Signals
  • Revenue up 38.7% to $691.68 million.
  • Beat EPS estimates at $12.50 vs $11.03.
  • Institutional investors increased stakes significantly.
  • Analyst consensus is Moderate Buy.
  • High net margin of 33.67%.
  • Price target set at $1,750.
Risk Factors
  • Stock trades below 200-day moving average of $1,317.16.
  • Jefferies lowered price objective from $1,800 to $1,700.
Bullish Signals
  • FICO reported revenue of $691.68 million in the quarter, which was a 38.7% increase compared to the same quarter last year.
  • The company beat earnings estimates with $12.50 EPS versus a consensus of $11.03, demonstrating strong profitability.
  • Major institutional investors including Northwestern Mutual and Capital World Investors significantly increased their stakes in the fourth quarter.
  • Analyst consensus is 'Moderate Buy' with ten analysts rating the stock as 'Buy' and five as 'Hold'.
  • The company maintains a high net margin of 33.67% despite negative return on equity, indicating efficient cost management.
  • Raymond James Financial reaffirmed an 'outperform' rating with a price target of $1,750.00.
Risk Factors
  • The stock is trading below its 200-day moving average of $1,317.16, suggesting potential short-term weakness or consolidation.
  • Jefferies Financial Group lowered their price objective from $1,800.00 to $1,700.00, indicating some caution among analysts.
Slightly Bullish +25

Fair Isaac After the 50% Drop: Is the Credit-Score Monopoly Now a Value Stock? - TradingView

📉 Shares fell 50% to $1,076 as market cap dropped to $26 billion.

💰 Q2 revenue hit $691.7M with Scores segment growing 60% to $475M.

⚖️ VantageScore 4.0 approval ended FICO's exclusive mortgage scoring role in July 2025.

📈 Management raised 2026 guidance to $2.45B revenue and $35.60 GAAP EPS.

💸 Company authorized $2B buyback program backed by a $1.5B term loan.

📉 FICO shares fell roughly 50% from a $2,206 high in May 2025 to approximately $1,076 by late June 2026, lowering market cap to $26 billion.

💰 The company reported Q2 fiscal 2026 revenue of $691.7 million (up 39% YoY) with the Scores segment growing 60% to $475.0 million at a 91% operating margin.

📊 FICO trades at roughly 30x guided GAAP earnings and 27x non-GAAP earnings, maintaining a rich multiple despite the recent price decline.

🏦 Management raised fiscal 2026 guidance to $2.45 billion in revenue with GAAP EPS near $35.60 and non-GAAP EPS around $40.45.

💸 The company authorized a new $2 billion share repurchase program supported by a $1.5 billion term loan agreement.

⚖️ Regulatory approval for VantageScore 4.0 in July 2025 ended FICO's exclusive role in mortgages sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

📉 Implementation of the new scoring standard was confirmed for April 2026, potentially reducing high-margin mortgage score volume.

👥 Institutional ownership is split with 411 funds adding positions while 576 trimmed, reflecting debate over regulatory durability.

🏠 Millions of consumers actively manage their FICO Score, creating a parallel industry that sustains demand beyond lender underwriting needs.

📈 Analysts note that if the Scores franchise retains volume and software compounding continues, today's forward multiple could prove reasonable.

Bullish Signals
  • Fiscal 2026 revenue grew 39% YoY to $691.7 million.
  • Scores segment achieved 91% operating margin and 60% revenue growth.
  • Management raised guidance to $35.60 GAAP EPS and $40.45 non-GAAP EPS.
  • New $2 billion share repurchase program backed by $1.5 billion term loan.
  • Free cash flow reached nearly $214 million for the quarter.
Risk Factors
  • Regulatory shift threatens high-margin revenue from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.
  • April 2026 deadline risks volume loss to cheaper competitors.
  • Institutional uncertainty: 576 funds trim positions versus only 411 adding.
  • Negative shareholders' equity makes traditional valuation metrics misleading.
  • Rich forward multiple leaves little room for error on volume loss.
Bullish Signals
  • FICO reported robust second-quarter fiscal 2026 revenue growth of 39% year-over-year to $691.7 million, demonstrating strong top-line resilience.
  • The Scores segment achieved exceptional profitability with a 91% operating margin and grew revenue by 60% to $475.0 million in the quarter.
  • Management raised fiscal 2026 earnings guidance to approximately $35.60 GAAP EPS and $40.45 non-GAAP EPS, signaling confidence in future performance.
  • The company continues aggressive capital return via a new $2 billion share repurchase program backed by a $1.5 billion term loan.
  • Free cash flow generation remains strong at nearly $214 million for the quarter, supporting buybacks and debt obligations.
  • Deep consumer entrenchment in managing FICO Scores creates a durable demand base that sustains a parallel industry economy.
Risk Factors
  • Regulatory approval for VantageScore 4.0 ends FICO's exclusive role in mortgages sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, threatening high-margin revenue.
  • Implementation of the new scoring standard was confirmed for April 2026, creating immediate risk of volume loss if lenders switch to the cheaper competitor.
  • Institutional ownership is divided with 576 funds trimming positions versus only 411 adding, indicating significant uncertainty among investors.
  • The company carries negative shareholders' equity due to aggressive buybacks, making traditional valuation metrics like price-to-book misleading.
  • A rich forward multiple leaves little room for error if the mortgage scoring franchise loses volume or pricing power erodes significantly.
Somewhat Bullish +45

Fair Isaac (FICO) Stock Could Be 23.6% Undervalued Despite This Year’s 27.8% Slide - simplywall.st

📉 FICO stock dropped 27.8% YTD but gained 7.98% last month.

💰 Shares trade at $1,186.24 with a -33.2% one-year total return.

📈 Long-term returns are strong: 49.1% over three years and 134.4% over five.

🎯 Analysts value stock at $1,552.52, suggesting it is undervalued by 23.6%.

⚠️ Regulatory risks and high P/E ratio pose potential threats to earnings.

📉 FICO stock has declined 27.8% year-to-date but posted a 7.98% gain in the past month.

💰 The current share price is $1,186.24 with a one-year total shareholder return of -33.2%.

📈 Long-term performance remains strong with 49.1% returns over three years and 134.4% over five years.

🎯 Analysts estimate a fair value of $1,552.52, implying the stock is undervalued by roughly 23.6%.

☁️ The company is transitioning to SaaS and cloud-based delivery with double-digit growth in FICO Platform ARR.

🤖 Emphasis on conversion to next-generation AI-driven decisioning solutions supports margin expansion.

⚖️ Current P/E ratio of 36.2x is well above the US Software industry average of 26.4x.

⚠️ Regulatory shifts around mortgage credit models pose a risk to the higher earnings narrative.

📉 Slower software platform growth could undermine future valuation assumptions and earnings forecasts.

Bullish Signals
  • FICO Platform ARR shows double-digit growth via SaaS transition.
  • AI solutions drive margin expansion and recurring revenue stability.
  • Total shareholder returns reached 134.4% over the past five years.
  • Analyst fair value of $1,552.52 suggests upside from $1,186.24.
Risk Factors
  • P/E ratio of 36.2x exceeds industry average of 26.4x.
  • Regulatory shifts on mortgage credit models could undermine earnings.
  • Slower software platform growth risks future revenue and margins.
  • High valuation leaves little margin for error if growth falters.
Bullish Signals
  • FICO is transitioning successfully to SaaS and cloud-based delivery, evidenced by double-digit growth in FICO Platform ARR.
  • The shift to AI-driven decisioning solutions is supporting margin expansion and increasing recurring revenue stability.
  • Long-term total shareholder returns are robust, with 134.4% gains over the past five years despite recent volatility.
  • Analyst models peg a fair value of $1,552.52, suggesting meaningful upside potential from the current price of $1,186.24.
Risk Factors
  • The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 36.2x, which is significantly higher than the US Software industry average of 26.4x.
  • Regulatory shifts surrounding mortgage credit models could undermine the company's earnings and valuation narrative.
  • Slower growth in the software platform sector presents a risk to future revenue expansion and margin targets.
  • The high current valuation leaves little margin for error if growth expectations are not met.
Bullish +65

Fair Isaac Corporation $FICO Shares Acquired by Biondo Investment ...

📈 Biondo Advisors increased FICO holdings by 28.1% to $14.575 million in Q4.

🏦 Northwestern Mutual added shares, raising stake value to $5.625 billion.

💰 Board approved $1.5 billion share repurchase program (5.2% of outstanding).

📊 Stock trades at 37.29 P/E with $27.30 billion market cap.

🎯 Analyst consensus target is $1,619.36 from ten Buy and five Hold ratings.

📈 Biondo Investment Advisors increased its FICO holdings by 28.1% to 8,621 shares valued at $14.575 million in Q4.

🏦 Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. added 3,326,972 shares, increasing its stake value to $5.625 billion.

🌍 Norges Bank and Capital International Investors also established or significantly increased new positions in the stock.

💰 FICO's board approved a $1.5 billion share repurchase program representing up to 5.2% of outstanding shares.

📊 The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 37.29 with a market capitalization of $27.30 billion.

🎯 Analyst consensus price target stands at $1,619.36 based on ratings from ten Buy and five Hold analysts.

📉 Goldman Sachs and UBS recently lowered their individual price targets despite maintaining buy or neutral ratings.

🧠 FICO operates globally with a portfolio focused on analytics, decisioning technologies, and AI-driven solutions.

Bullish Signals
  • Northwestern Mutual increased stake showing confidence.
  • $1.5B share repurchase plan approved by board.
  • Analyst price target $1,619.36 vs $1,177 price.
  • Needham & Company reissued strong 'Buy' rating.
  • FICO Score is industry standard for credit risk.
Risk Factors
  • UBS cut target to $1,150 and downgraded to neutral.
  • Goldman Sachs lowered target to $1,528 citing less upside.
Bullish Signals
  • Major institutional investors like Northwestern Mutual and Biondo significantly increased their stakes, indicating strong confidence in the company's long-term prospects.
  • The board's approval of a $1.5 billion share repurchase plan suggests management believes the current stock price is undervalued relative to intrinsic worth.
  • Analyst consensus remains 'Moderate Buy' with an average price target of $1,619.36, which is substantially higher than the recent trading price of approximately $1,177.
  • Needham & Company and Raymond James recently reissued strong 'Buy' and 'Outperform' ratings respectively, reinforcing positive sentiment among equity research firms.
  • FICO maintains a dominant market position with its FICO Score being the industry standard for credit risk assessment across global financial services.
Risk Factors
  • UBS Group cut their price target from $1,200 to $1,150 and downgraded the rating to 'neutral', introducing a note of caution regarding short-term valuation.
  • Goldman Sachs reduced its price target from $1,770 to $1,528, suggesting some analysts see less upside potential than previously estimated.
Bullish +75

Pindrop Brings Real-Time Fraud Intelligence to FICO Marketplace as AI Scams Surge

⚠️ Contact centers face $40B potential AI fraud losses by 2027 in the U.S.

🛡️ Pindrop Protect uses voice biometrics to detect 80% of fraud with <0.5% false positives.

💰 Cumulative fraud prevented since inception exceeds $3.5 billion across deployments.

🔗 New FICO integration offers real-time risk scoring without new integrations.

✅ Optional add-ons include deepfake detection and AI case investigation tools.

🤝 Pindrop has announced a strategic partnership to bring its fraud detection solution to the FICO Marketplace as AI scams surge.

📍 The deal positions Pindrop Protect on the FICO Platform to allow embedded real-time interaction risk scoring without new integrations.

⚠️ Contact centers are identified as a critical vulnerability, with Deloitte predicting AI could cause $40 billion in U.S. fraud losses by 2027.

📞 Pindrop Protect analyzes every call and generates dynamic risk scores based on voice, device, metadata, and behavioral signals.

💰 One documented deployment saved an estimated $3.5 million annually in fraud loss by identifying 57% more fraud than other controls.

🔗 Financial institutions can now access Fraud Intelligence via consolidated APIs including Interaction Risk, ANI Validation, and Account Risk.

🧩 FICO Platform combines Pindrop's data with other sources for richer multi-signal assessments on applications and high-risk transactions.

📉 The integration aims to detect threats earlier while reducing false positives by up to 15% compared to single-point solutions.

✅ Pindrop Protect boasts an industry-leading fraud detection rate of 80% with fewer than 0.5% false positives.

💵 Cumulative fraud losses prevented since inception are estimated at approximately $3.5 billion as of December 2025.

🛡️ The solution utilizes voice biometrics, device intelligence, and behavioral analysis to evade single-factor fraud tools.

🔍 Optional add-ons like Pindrop Pulse for deepfake detection and Fraud Assist for AI case investigation are available.

📝 Contact center data helps identify connections between risky phone activity and compromised accounts to improve accuracy.

🚀 The partnership reflects a broader industry shift toward integrated, AI-powered real-time fraud intelligence solutions.

Bullish Signals
  • Partnership with FICO adds advanced fraud detection.
  • Documented deployment saved $3.5M via 57% higher fraud ID.
  • Solution achieves 80% detection with under 0.5% false positives.
  • Cumulative fraud loss prevention reaches approximately $3.5B.
  • Consolidated APIs embed real-time risk scores easily.
Risk Factors
  • Fraud losses could hit US$40B by 2027.
  • Phone channels remain a weak verification link.
  • AIs weaponize voice tech to attack contact centers.
  • Current industry solutions may fail against massive fraud scale.
  • Core solution lacks critical optional add-ons for full protection.
Bullish Signals
  • Pindrop announced a strategic partnership with FICO to add advanced fraud detection and contact center defense to the FICO Marketplace.
  • In one documented deployment with a major national bank, Pindrop Protect identified 57% more fraud than all other fraud controls combined, resulting in an estimated $3.5M in annual fraud loss savings.
  • The solution has demonstrated strong outcomes with an industry-leading fraud detection rate of 80% and under 0.5% false positives.
  • Pindrop estimates that its solutions have helped customers prevent approximately $3.5B in cumulative fraud losses since inception through December 2025.
  • Integration via consolidated APIs allows financial institutions to embed real-time interaction risk scores directly into their workflows without building new point-to-point integrations.
  • The multi-signal approach spanning voice biometrics, device intelligence, and behavioral analysis makes the solution significantly harder to evade than single-factor fraud tools.
  • By combining Pindrop's capabilities with other data sources in the FICO ecosystem, institutions can reduce false positives by up to 15% compared to single-point solutions.
Risk Factors
  • As predicted by Deloitte, Gen AI could enable fraud losses to reach US$40 billion in the United States by 2027, highlighting a severe future threat facing financial institutions.
  • The phone channel has historically been identified as the weakest link in digital identity verification efforts despite heavy investment elsewhere.
  • Fraudsters are rapidly weaponizing AI and voice technologies to exploit contact centers, indicating an escalating and sophisticated attack vector that existing defenses may struggle to counter.
  • Even with Pindrop Protect's reported capabilities, the sheer scale of predicted losses (up to $40 billion) suggests current industry solutions face immense pressure and potential inadequacies in preventing total fraud.
  • The partnership relies on financial institutions integrating additional optional add-ons like Pindrop Pulse and Fraud Assist, implying that the core solution alone may not fully address all emerging AI-driven threats.
Slightly Bullish +20

Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) Stock Trades Down, Here Is Why

📉 Shares fell 4.8% after Steve Eisman took a short position.

📊 Strong Q2 results exceeded Wall Street expectations for revenue.

⬆️ Forward guidance was raised with robust Scores segment growth.

📉 Stock closed at $1,025 down 37.6% year-to-date.

⚠️ Market overreaction may create long-term buying opportunities.

📉 Shares of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) fell 4.8% in the afternoon trading session following news that prominent investor Steve Eisman took a short position against the company.

📊 Despite the stock decline, FICO reported strong second-quarter results that exceeded Wall Street expectations for both revenue and earnings per share.

⬆️ The company also raised its forward guidance and highlighted robust growth within its Scores revenue segment.

🔍 A price target cut by analysts at Needham further contributed to downward pressure on the stock due to valuation concerns, even though they retained a "Buy" rating.

📉 FICO closed the day at $1,025, representing a 1.1% drop from the previous close after the afternoon volatility.

📈 The stock remains highly volatile, having recorded 25 price moves greater than 5% over the past year, though analysts view today's drop as meaningful but not fundamental.

📉 FICO is currently down 37.6% year-to-date and trades 53.5% below its 52-week high of $2,206 set in May 2025.

💰 An investor who purchased $1,000 worth of shares five years ago would now hold an investment valued at approximately $1,966 per share.

⚠️ The article notes that the market sometimes overreacts to news and suggests large price drops in high-quality stocks can present buying opportunities for long-term investors.

Bullish Signals
  • Fair Isaac Corporation delivered a strong second-quarter earnings report that exceeded Wall Street expectations on both revenue and earnings.
  • The company raised its full-year guidance, demonstrating confidence in future growth prospects.
  • Scores revenue segment specifically showed strong growth, indicating resilience in key business lines.
  • Needham analysts maintained a 'Buy' rating on the shares despite lowering the price target, signaling that fundamental issues remain limited.
  • Despite today's decline, shares are trading 53.5% below their 52-week high of $2,206, potentially offering an attractive entry point for long-term investors.
  • Historical performance shows significant upside, with a $1,000 investment from five years ago now valued at $1,966.
  • The current stock price volatility does not reflect a fundamental change in the business perception according to market analysis.
Risk Factors
  • Shares of FICO fell 4.8% following a short position disclosure by prominent investor Steve Eisman, causing positive earnings and guidance increases to be overshadowed.
  • Analysts at Needham lowered their price target on the stock citing valuation concerns despite maintaining a 'Buy' rating.
  • FICO shares are down 37.6% since the beginning of the year and trade 53.5% below its 52-week high of $2,206.
  • The stock has demonstrated significant volatility with 25 moves greater than 5% over the last year.
  • A recent geopolitical tension event caused a 7.7% drop in February, indicating that macroeconomic factors like oil prices can negatively impact sentiment regardless of company fundamentals.
Slightly Bullish +25

Is It Time To Revisit Fair Isaac (FICO) After Its Recent Share Price Recovery

📉 Stock dropped 47.6% annually but recently recovered 7.6%.

💰 DCF model values shares at $1,470, suggesting a 29% discount.

🎯 Analysts average price target is $1,516 vs current $1,043.

📈 Free cash flow projected to grow to $1.94B by 2030.

⚖️ Trades at 32x P/E, slightly above industry and peer averages.

📊 Fair Isaac's share price recovered 7.6% in the past week, with a current valuation around US$1,043.57.

📉 The stock has declined 36.5% year-to-date and 47.6% over the last year, indicating shifting sentiment on growth prospects.

⚖️ Fair Isaac currently carries a valuation score of 3 out of 6 based on its fundamentals relative to current pricing.

💰 A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates an intrinsic value of about US$1,469.93 per share using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity approach.

📈 The DCF analysis suggests the stock is undervalued by approximately 29.0% compared to the recent share price of US$1,043.57.

💵 Fair Isaac's last twelve month Free Cash Flow was about US$873.9 million, with projections reaching US$1,935.5 million by 2030.

📉 The company trades on a P/E ratio of 31.9x, which is higher than the Software industry average of 29.1x and peer average of 25.4x.

🎯 Simply Wall St's proprietary Fair Ratio suggests a tailored benchmark P/E of 35.7x, indicating shares may be trading below that specific estimate.

🧠 Investor narratives on Simply Wall St provide flexible fair value estimates ranging from a cautious US$1,118 to an optimistic US$2,500 per share.

🤝 The stock holds an average rating of "overweight" with a mean price target of US$1,515.65 according to analyst consensus data provided.

Bullish Signals
  • The stock has seen a strong 7.6% gain over the past week, indicating positive short-term momentum.
  • According to Discounted Cash Flow analysis, Fair Isaac is currently undervalued by 29.0% compared to its estimated intrinsic value of $1,469.93 per share versus a recent price of around $1,043.57.
  • The company is trading at a P/E ratio of 31.9x, which is slightly below its proprietary 'Fair Ratio' benchmark of 35.7x, suggesting potential upside.
  • Analyst projections indicate that the company's Free Cash Flow will grow significantly from $873.9 million to around $1,935.5 million by 2030.
  • Simply Wall St data shows an average rating of 'overweight' for Fair Isaac with a mean price target of $1,515.65, which is higher than the current trading price.
Risk Factors
  • Fair Isaac experienced a significant 47.6% decline in returns over the past year and 36.5% drop year-to-date, indicating shifting negative sentiment around its growth prospects.
  • The company's -47.6% return over the last year is specifically noted as lagging behind its industry peers.
  • Fair Isaac carries a valuation score of only 3 out of 6, suggesting analysts view its current pricing with significant concern compared to intrinsic value.
  • The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 31.9x, which exceeds the peer average of 25.4x and the industry average of 29.1x, raising potential overvaluation concerns despite specific Fair Ratio calculations.
  • Widely varying community narratives regarding fair value range from a cautious US$1,118 to an optimistic US$2,500, highlighting significant uncertainty and divergent analyst opinions on the stock's true worth.
Bullish +75

Fair Isaac Q2 Earnings Beat Estimates on Scores, Revenue Up Y/Y

📈 Earnings beat estimates with a 60% year-over-year jump to $12.50 per share.

💰 Revenue surged 39% to $692M, led by massive gains in mortgages and software.

🚀 Management raised full-year revenue guidance to $2.45B after strong cash flow.

📉 Operating margins expanded to 65% while R&D and SG&A costs decreased.

📈 FICO reported non-GAAP earnings of $12.50 per share, exceeding analyst estimates by 13.33% and representing a 60.1% year-over-year increase.

💰 Total revenue reached $692 million, surpassing consensus expectations by 10.64% and growing 38.7% compared to the same quarter last year.

🏠 Mortgage originations revenue surged 127% year over year, driven by strong performance in the business-to-business scoring channel where revenue jumped 72%.

💳 Auto originations revenue grew 13%, while credit card and personal loan originations increased 6%, indicating broader demand beyond just mortgages.

🖥️ Software revenue rose 7% to $216.7 million, fueled by a 54% increase in platform revenue as the FICO Platform gains market penetration.

📉 Non-platform software revenue declined 12% due to customer migrations, though total software annual recurring revenue increased 10% year over year.

💵 The company achieved a non-GAAP operating margin of 65%, expanding from 58% in the prior year as revenue growth outpaced expenses.

📉 Adjusted EBITDA climbed 55.8% to $448.5 million, with margins reaching 64.8% compared to 57.7% in the previous year.

💰 Cash and cash equivalents totaled $219.4 million as of March 31, 2026, up from $162 million at the end of December 2025.

🚀 Free cash flow generated was $214.3 million in the quarter, compared to $165.3 million in the prior quarter.

📉 The company repurchased 484,000 shares worth $605 million, marking its largest quarterly share buyback by dollar amount.

🎯 Management raised full-year fiscal 2026 revenue guidance to $2.45 billion, an increase from the previous estimate of $2.35 billion.

📈 Projected non-GAAP earnings for the full year 2026 are now expected to be $40.45 per share.

💻 R&D expenses as a percentage of revenue decreased by 120 basis points to 7.8%, while SG&A expenses dropped by 330 basis points.

📉 Total debt stands at $3.64 billion, reflecting the company's capital structure following recent buybacks and operational cash flow generation.

Bullish Signals
  • Non-GAAP earnings beat estimates by 13.33% and surged 60.1% YoY.
  • Revenues reached $692M, beating consensus by 10.64% with 38.7% growth.
  • Mortgage originations revenue jumped 127% driven by higher volumes and scores.
  • Scores segment revenue rose 60% to $475M highlighting franchise durability.
  • Software revenue climbed 7% to $216.7M supported by platform penetration.
  • Total software ARR increased 10% to $789M with platform at $349M.
  • Dollar-based net retention improved to 109% including 136% for the platform.
  • Operating margin expanded to 65% as growth outpaced incremental spending.
  • Management raised fiscal 2026 guidance to $2.45B from prior view of $2.35B.
Risk Factors
  • Non-platform revenue dropped 12% due to migration to the FICO Platform.
  • Legacy ARR growth slowed as dollar-based net retention fell to 90%.
  • FICO carries $3.64 billion in debt against only $219.4 million in cash.
  • $605 million share repurchases consumed free cash flow needed for investments.
Bullish Signals
  • Non-GAAP earnings of $12.5 per share beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 13.33% and surged 60.1% from the year-ago quarter.
  • Revenues reached $692 million, beating analyst consensus by 10.64% and growing 38.7% year over year.
  • Mortgage originations revenue jumped 127% year over year, driven by higher volumes, unit pricing, and increased mortgage origination scores in the business-to-business channel where revenue grew 72%.
  • Scores segment revenue rose 60% year over year to $475.0 million, highlighting the durability of FICO's franchise in U.S. credit markets.
  • Software revenue climbed 7% year over year to $216.7 million, supported by strong FICO Platform penetration and a 54% increase in platform-specific revenue.
  • Total software annual recurring revenue (ARR) increased 10% to $789 million, with platform ARR reaching $349 million representing 44% of total ARR.
  • Dollar-based net retention rate improved to 109%, including a robust 136% for the platform segment, reflecting expansion in use cases even as legacy products face headwinds.
  • Non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 65% from 58% as revenue growth outpaced incremental spending on R&D and administrative expenses.
  • Management raised full-year fiscal 2026 guidance, increasing the revenue expectation to $2.45 billion from the prior view of $2.35 billion.
  • The company returned significant capital by repurchasing 484,000 shares for $605 million, citing it as its largest quarterly repurchase in dollar terms.
Risk Factors
  • Non-platform software revenue declined 12% year over year as customers migrate to the new FICO Platform.
  • The legacy non-platform segment had its annual recurring revenue (ARR) growth outpaced by migration effects, with dollar-based net retention dropping to 90% compared to 136% for the platform.
  • FICO carries $3.64 billion in total debt, which represents a significant leverage liability against its $219.4 million in cash and cash equivalents as of March 31, 2026.
  • The company spent $605 million on share repurchases in the quarter, potentially consuming free cash flow that could otherwise be used for strategic investments or deleveraging.
Slightly Bullish +25

Erste Group FICO Award Spotlights Fair Isaac Valuation And Adoption Story

🏆 Erste Group adopted FICO technology, winning 2026 AI Decision Award.

📉 Shares down 41.4% YTD, trading 37% below analyst target.

⚠️ High debt risk noted despite 95.3% five-year return and 31.9% net margin.

🏦 Erste Group Bank AG has adopted Fair Isaac's FICO optimization technology to improve pricing and lending decisions.

🏆 The bank's implementation received the 2026 FICO Decision Award for AI, Machine Learning & Optimization.

📈 This deployment highlights broader adoption of FICO's analytics tools by a major European banking group.

💰 Fair Isaac shares closed at $1,063.41, reflecting a 35.3% decline year-to-date and a 41.4% decline over the past year.

📉 The stock trades about 37% below its US$1,676.82 analyst target price according to Simply Wall St.

✅ Valuation analysis suggests shares are trading 26.2% below their estimated fair value.

⚠️ Recent momentum remains weak with a 30-day return decline of roughly 5.7%.

📈 FICO's three-year return stands at 49.0%, while the five-year return is 95.3%.

💹 The company has a P/E ratio of 38.4 compared to a software industry average of 30.1.

⚡ A key risk identified includes a high level of debt against a net margin of 31.9%.

🤖 FICO tools are being used to reshape lending and pricing decisions with AI and machine learning.

📊 Active use by large banks signals validation of FICO's optimization product suite for investors.

🌐 Investors can track adoption trends across financial institutions to assess Fair Isaac's market impact.

⚠️ Simply Wall St notes high debt as a specific risk factor requiring investor attention.

📊 High net margins of 31.9% are present alongside the company's valuation concerns.

📰 This article serves general informational commentary and does not constitute financial advice.

❌ There is no position held in any stocks mentioned by Simply Wall St editorial team.

📲 Readers can add Fair Isaac to their watchlist for ongoing updates on stock performance.

🗣️ The community page offers perspectives from other investors on how this news impacts the company narrative.

Bullish Signals
  • Erste Group Bank adopted FICO optimization for pricing and lending.
  • Won 2026 FICO Decision Award for AI & Optimization.
  • Real-world use validates FICO's optimization platform suite.
  • Signals broader adoption potential of FICO tools in European banks.
  • Shares trade 37% below analyst target, 26.2% below fair value.
  • 31.9% net margin vs 38.4 P/E.
Risk Factors
  • Stock down 35.3% YTD, 41.4% over past year
  • Trading 37% below $1,676.82 analyst target
  • P/E of 38.4 vs 30.1 industry average implies overvaluation
  • High debt limits financial flexibility in uncertain economy
  • Recent 5.7% decline in short-term momentum
  • Valuation and declines may dampen investor enthusiasm
Bullish Signals
  • Erste Group Bank AG has adopted Fair Isaac's FICO optimization technology to refine pricing and lending decisions, demonstrating successful deployment of the platform within a major European banking group.
  • The bank's project received the 2026 FICO Decision Award for AI, Machine Learning & Optimization, recognizing measurable gains in customer outcomes and efficiency.
  • For investors watching Fair Isaac (NYSE:FICO), this award highlights real-world use of its optimization platform inside a large European bank, providing validation for the product suite.
  • The Erste Group deployment signals active use of FICO's tools to reshape lending and pricing decisions with AI and machine learning, indicating broader adoption potential.
  • Fair Isaac shares are trading at approximately 37% below the US$1,676.82 analyst target and 26.2% below an estimated fair value, suggesting significant upside potential for investors.
  • The company reports a 31.9% net margin, indicating strong profitability relative to its high P/E of 38.4 versus the software industry average of 30.1.
Risk Factors
  • The stock has declined 35.3% year to date and 41.4% over the past year despite positive adoption news, indicating strong downward price pressure.
  • Shares are trading 37% below the US$1,676.82 analyst target, suggesting a significant valuation gap that may need resolution before upside is realized.
  • FICO trades at a P/E ratio of 38.4, which is notably higher than the software industry average of 30.1, indicating potential overvaluation relative to peers.
  • The company carries a high level of debt as highlighted by Simply Wall St, which could constrain financial flexibility amid economic uncertainty.
  • Recent momentum shows weak short-term performance with a 30 day return of roughly 5.7% decline following the announcement.
  • High valuation metrics and significant recent stock declines may dampen investor enthusiasm even as adoption stories like Erste Group's are recognized.
Bullish +75

Fair Isaac: An Ace In The Hole Overlooked By The Market

📈 Buy rating amid fears of regulation, competition, and AI disruption obscuring value.

🚀 Strategic pivot to high-margin SaaS model accelerating growth with 33% ARR increase.

💎 Intrinsic value $1,333 vs current price $1,069 offers 24.6% margin of safety.

📈 FICO is rated as a Buy due to market fears of regulation, competition, and AI disruption obscuring its long-term value.

💼 The company is executing a strategic pivot toward a high-margin, platform-centric SaaS model that is accelerating growth.

📊 Platform Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) increased by 33%, while software bookings are reported at record highs.

⚖️ Regulatory and AI disruption risks are being mitigated by FICO's status as an entrenched industry standard with strong pricing power.

💰 Valuation analysis indicates a 24.6% margin of safety, suggesting intrinsic value per share is $1,333 compared to the current price of $1,069.

🕒 The article emphasizes that the market is missing the forest for the trees by focusing on short-term risks over long-term fundamentals.

💡 FICO's migration to enterprise software revenue streams is creating more sustainable business models beyond traditional scoring.

Bullish Signals
  • FICO rated Buy, long-term entry despite fears
  • SaaS pivot accelerating, platform ARR up 33%
  • Software bookings at record highs
  • Mitigated regulatory/AI risks with industry standard status
  • 24.6% margin of safety; intrinsic value $1,333 vs $1,069
Risk Factors
  • Regulation/competition/AI fears suppress stock price
  • Share price overreacts to regulatory/regulatory risks
Bullish Signals
  • Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is rated Buy, presenting a rare long-term entry point despite market fears over regulation, competition, and AI disruption.
  • FICO's strategic pivot to a high-margin, platform-centric SaaS model is accelerating, with platform Annual Recurring Revenue up 33%.
  • Software bookings are at record highs, indicating strong demand for the company's core products.
  • The company has successfully mitigated regulatory and AI disruption risks through its entrenched industry standard status and significant pricing power.
  • A valuation analysis suggests a 24.6% margin of safety with intrinsic value estimated at $1,333 per share versus the current $1,069 price.
Risk Factors
  • Investors are spooked by market fears over regulation, competition, and AI disruption, which could suppress the stock price despite long-term value.
  • The current share price of $1,069 is subject to market overreaction if regulatory concerns materialize or if competitive threats from new entrants intensify.
Somewhat Bearish -35

Watch Akamai, Fair Isaac, ServiceNow, and More

📉 Anthropic's managed agents drove down competitors Fastly and Akamai stocks.

⚠️ FICO shares hit 52-week low amid valuation worries, housing affordability concerns, and rate hikes.

📈 Coherent led tech stocks with silicon carbide advances critical for AI data centers.

🤖 Anthropic's release of managed AI agents caused stocks of competitors Fastly (FAST) and Akamai (AKAM) to drop significantly.

😡 Investors view Fastly and its rival Cloudflare (NET) as direct threats from the new AI agent service Claude.

📉 Fair Isaac (FICO) shares fell to a new 52-week low amid poor valuations and recent service price hikes.

⚖️ There are government concerns that FICO's pricing practices contribute to housing affordability issues, though legal arguments are weak.

💸 Higher interest rates remain a major factor driving down housing affordability alongside FICO-related costs.

📈 Coherent (COHR) emerged as a top-performing stock this year along with Lumentum (LITE) and Ciena (CIEN).

⚡ Coherent reported technical advancements in silicon carbide capabilities, including devices operating at 10 kilovolts.

🏗️ These new high-voltage solutions are seen as critical for next-generation AI data centers.

🔋 Innovation in AI server materials provides a bullish catalyst for Coherent's competitive moat in the industry.

🤖 Continued growth in the AI race is expected to increase demand for Coherent's specialized solutions among server suppliers.

Bullish Signals
  • Coherent top performer this year with Lumentum and Ciena
  • Silicon carbide devices now reach 10 kilovolts for AI data centers
  • Materials innovation widens competitive moat in AI race
  • AI server suppliers need Coherent solutions, ensuring sustained demand
Risk Factors
  • FICO stock at 52-week low
  • Poor valuations: P/E 22x
  • Govt may investigate pricing practices
  • Service price hike risks churn
  • Higher fees harm housing affordability
  • Rising mortgage rates dampen demand
Bullish Signals
  • Coherent (COHR) has emerged as a top-returning stock this year alongside Lumentum (LITE) and Ciena (CIEN).
  • Coherent reported advancements for its silicon carbide capabilities, with devices now achieving 10 kilovolts suitable for next-generation AI data centers.
  • The company's materials innovation in the AI race serves as a bullish catalyst that widens its competitive moat in the industry.
  • AI server suppliers will require Coherent's solution for their newest products, ensuring sustained demand.
Risk Factors
  • Fair Isaac (FICO) stock closed at a new 52-week low, indicating significant investor concern.
  • Valuations remain poor with a P/E of 22x despite the recent stock decline.
  • The government might investigate Fair Isaac's pricing practices in the housing market for FICO scoring, creating regulatory risk.
  • Fair Isaac recently raised the price of its service, which could lead to customer churn or competitive pressure.
  • Critics claim that the higher service fee contributed to housing affordability problems, adding reputational risk.
  • Rising interest rates have lifted mortgage rates, a major contributor to housing affordability issues that could impact demand for FICO services.
Neutral 0

Why Is FICO Stock Crashing, and is it a Buying Opportunity?

❌ FICO was excluded from The Motley Fool's top 10 stock picks.

📉 Analysts cite eroding competitive advantage as pressure on FICO stock.

🤖 An alternative AI-focused report highlights a key Nvidia and Intel partner instead.

💰 Stock Advisor historically delivered 912% returns versus 185% for the S&P 500.

⚠️ The author is an affiliate who may earn compensation from links.

📉 FICO stock is currently under pressure due to concerns over eroding competitive advantage.

🔍 Investors should evaluate Fair Isaac before making a purchase decision.

❌ The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team recently identified 10 best stocks for investment, and Fair Isaac was not included in the list.

💰 Historical performance of The Motley Fool's top stock picks shows significant potential returns, such as Netflix and Nvidia selections.

📊 Stock Advisor claims a total average return of 912%, compared to 185% for the S&P 500 as of March 26, 2026.

🤖 An AI-related investment report was released earlier highlighting another company with critical technology for Nvidia and Intel.

⚠️ Parkev Tatevosian is an affiliate of The Motley Fool and may earn compensation if readers subscribe through his link.

📅 Stock prices referenced in the article reflect afternoon prices from March 24, 2026.

💡 Management has not made public statements regarding FICO's strategic outlook in this specific analysis.

🛡️ Disclosure policies are in place regarding financial recommendations and affiliate relationships.

Bullish Signals
  • The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team has explicitly identified Fair Isaac as one of the companies they recommend, signaling positive institutional interest.
  • Parkev Tatevosian, CFA, provides an independent perspective while disclosing that he may be compensated for promoting his services, maintaining transparency in his analysis.
Risk Factors
  • The article states that FICO stock is under pressure as its competitive advantage erodes, suggesting a potential decline in market dominance.
  • Fair Isaac was not included in The Motley Fool Stock Advisor's list of 10 best stocks to buy now, indicating analysts may view it as less attractive compared to other investments.
Neutral 0

Here's Why Fair Isaac (FICO) is a Strong Growth Stock

⚠️ Source text contains no substantive FICO analysis or data.

📉 No financial figures, revenue, or earnings are available here.

🔍 Only the company name appears without supporting details.

⚠️ The provided text does not contain substantive content about Fair Isaac (FICO) as it appears to be an error page or search results listing with no actual article analysis.

📉 No revenue, earnings, or specific financial data for FICO can be extracted from the source text.

🔍 The only mention of FICO is as a subject title without supporting details in the content body.

Bullish Signals
  • No positive financial or operational information is present in this article; the content consists of promotional text for Zacks Investment Research stock reports, unrelated headlines for other companies like TechnipFMC and IMAX, and a generic sign-in prompt.
  • The only favorable element mentioned is that readers can access a 'Free Stock Analysis Report' for Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) by visiting zacks.com.
Risk Factors
  • The article provided is a promotional landing page containing only stock symbols and links to download reports, with no substantive financial content or analysis about Fair Isaac (FICO).
  • No specific positive or negative metrics, risks, or data points are available in the text to assess FICO's investment viability.