Carvana Co.

New York Stock Exchange
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Somewhat Bullish +45

Carvana Stock Jumped 5% in a Day as Jefferies Tracked 40% Unit Growth. Here’s Where Shares Could Go by 2030

Company update Customer growth Financial outlook AI-generated analysis

📈 Carvana stock jumped 5.21% to $63.62 after Jefferies reported web-scraped unit growth averaging 40% in early September.

📊 Unit growth bottomed at 23% in early July, averaged 35% for the month, and reached 41% in August according to Jefferies data.

💰 Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA hit a record $769 million, but margins slipped to 10.43% from 12.42% year-over-year.

🤝 CFO Mark Jenkins stated Carvana shares the benefit of FTC enforcement with rivals, limiting its ability to charge higher prices than competitors.

🎯 Management targets a 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin for the 2030-2035 period via fixed-cost and advertising leverage.

📉 FY2026 revenue consensus is up 14% since end of 2025, while stock valuation multiples have compressed from 63x to 31x.

🔮 Jefferies target price is $88, while a long-term model projects a mid-case value of ~$112 by December 31, 2030.

📅 Third-quarter report expected late October with consensus revenue around $7.6 billion and EBITDA near $790 million.

⚖️ Upside depends on compounding units without matching CarMax's price cuts; downside risk involves shared FTC tailwinds and margin pressure.

🏆 Carvana's unit growth is supported by added reconditioning capacity and new productivity software keeping website inventory growing near 30%.

Bullish Signals
  • Web-scraped unit growth averaged 40% in the first three weeks of September, indicating strong underlying demand.
  • Second-quarter adjusted EBITDA reached a record $769 million, demonstrating improved absolute profitability despite margin compression.
  • Added reconditioning capacity and new productivity software helped keep website inventory growing near 30% in August.
  • Management has set a clear path to a 13.5% adjusted EBITDA margin target for the 2030-2035 period.
  • FY2026 revenue consensus is up approximately 14% since the end of 2025, reflecting growing analyst confidence in top-line growth.
Risk Factors
  • Adjusted EBITDA margins slipped to 10.43% from 12.42% a year earlier due to competitive pricing pressures.
  • Carvana shares the benefit of FTC enforcement with rivals like CarMax, limiting its ability to maintain higher margins than competitors.
  • Stock valuation multiples have compressed significantly from about 63x to about 31x as the price fell and forward earnings window rolled ahead.
  • Full-year guidance implies an adjusted EBITDA margin around 9% to 10%, which is below 2025's 11.0%.
  • Downside risk exists from a shared FTC tailwind and a price-cutting rival holding Carvana's margin near 10% for longer.
Full Analysis
Carvana (CVNA) shares rose 5.21% to close at $63.62 on September 29, 2026, following a Jefferies report indicating web-scraped unit growth averaging approximately 40% in the first three weeks of September. This performance contrasts with a recent sector-wide rally driven by CarMax's earnings beat, where analysts noted no specific new catalysts for Carvana other than general market sentiment. Jefferies data suggests Carvana's unit growth is bottoming out after hitting 23% in early July, averaging 35% for the month, and reaching 41% in August. The firm attributes this inventory expansion to added reconditioning capacity and new productivity software, though these figures remain estimates rather than reported financial results. Carvana's second-quarter adjusted EBITDA reached a record $769 million, yet margins slipped to 10.43% from 12.42% a year earlier due to competitive pricing pressures. CFO Mark Jenkins noted that while industry sticker prices rose in Q2, Carvana shares the benefit of FTC enforcement with rivals like CarMax, limiting its ability to maintain higher margins compared to competitors. Management is targeting an adjusted EBITDA margin of 13.5% between 2030 and 2035 through fixed-cost and advertising leverage. Analysts project FY2026 revenue consensus rising 14% since the end of 2025, though the stock has compressed significantly in valuation multiples compared to peers like CarMax. Jefferies maintains a target price of $88 for the current period, while a long-term model projects a mid-case value of ~$112 by December 31, 2030. The outlook hinges on Carvana compounding units at Jefferies' pace without matching CarMax's aggressive price cuts, which could otherwise suppress margins further. Carvana is expected to report its third-quarter results in late October with consensus revenue around $7.6 billion and EBITDA near $790 million. The upcoming quarter will be critical for determining if the company can outgrow CarMax while maintaining a wider margin or if growth continues to come at the expense of profitability.