Autodesk, Inc.

NASDAQ Global Select
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Slightly Bullish +15

How Far Could Autodesk Stock Rebound From Here?

AI-generated analysis

📉 Autodesk stock has lost about 31% over the past twelve months, trading near a $209.29 support level with resistance at $272.34.

💰 Revenue grew 17.9% in the last twelve months, exceeding the three-year average of 14.4%.

🏗️ The construction business is driving growth with Autodesk Forma expanding over 20% after a major retailer adoption.

📅 Autodesk closed its purchase of MaintainX on August 3, 2026, which is currently impacting operating margins.

📉 In late August 2026, Autodesk guided third-quarter adjusted profit below Wall Street estimates despite beating revenue projections.

📈 Shares fell more than 5% in extended trading following the mixed guidance and investor concerns about AI disruption.

🔮 Management expects operating margins to rise in fiscal 2028 after the initial drag from the MaintainX acquisition settles.

📅 A critical watch item is the renewal of Autodesk's largest enterprise agreement cohort, concentrated in Q4 fiscal 2027.

Bullish Signals
  • Revenue grew 17.9% over the last twelve months, significantly outpacing the three-year average of 14.4%.
  • The construction business is growing at more than 20%, driven by strong adoption of Autodesk Forma by a major global retailer.
  • Revenue projections for the upcoming quarter were put above Wall Street estimates, indicating continued top-line strength.
Risk Factors
  • Adjusted profit guidance for the third quarter came below Wall Street estimates due to operating margin drag from the MaintainX acquisition.
  • Shares fell more than 5% in extended trading following the mixed earnings guidance and investor worries about AI disruption.
  • The acquired company MaintainX was not profitable at the time of purchase and is currently acting as a drag on operating margins for fiscal 2027.
Full Analysis
Autodesk (ADSK) stock has declined approximately 31% over the past twelve months, trading near a support level of $209.29 with a resistance ceiling around $272.34. Despite the significant price drop, the company's underlying business fundamentals remain robust, challenging the narrative that the business itself has broken down. Revenue growth for the last twelve months reached 17.9%, surpassing the three-year average of 14.4%. This strength is primarily driven by the construction sector, where Autodesk Forma is growing at over 20% following a major contract with one of the world's largest retailers to serve as their common data environment for planning and design. However, recent financial guidance in late August 2026 revealed mixed signals. While revenue projections exceeded Wall Street estimates, adjusted profit guidance came in below expectations due to the integration costs associated with its acquisition of MaintainX on August 3, 2026. The market reacted negatively, causing shares to fall more than 5% in extended trading as investors expressed concerns regarding AI disruption and the profitability timeline of the acquired entity. Management expects operating margins to rise in fiscal 2028 despite the current drag from MaintainX. Investors are advised to monitor the renewal cohort of Autodesk's largest enterprise agreements, which management indicates will be concentrated in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2027, as this is a critical indicator for sustaining growth at current price levels.